Singapore's Covid response overlooked a major factor: Fear

‘Mastering data is only half the battle. A major reason hospitals were getting overwhelmed is because people were scared, and the government missed an opportunity to send the right message.

‘Singapore is very proud of its reputation for technocratic excellence. In recent months, government officials have tried to tackle the country’s most pressing question — how to live with Covid-19 — by scrutinizing, modeling and projecting data, as if staring hard enough at those little gray-rimmed boxes on Excel would produce the answer.

‘The trouble with this strategy is that living with Covid is messy, and the data will never look good. Countries that have been praised for the most meticulous of approaches to the outbreak have stumbled time and again. Ultimately, treating the coronavirus as endemic will require Singapore to do something it may find unnatural: think beyond the numbers.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Sept 29, 2021)

PM Modi owns India’s unfolding Covid disaster: Bloomberg

‘As in so many of the pandemic’s worst-hit countries, this tragedy was avoidable — and is largely the fault of a boastful and incompetent government. Yet, judging by the fate of other bungling far-right politicians such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, the UK’s Boris Johnson, Hungary’s Viktor Urban, and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may well suffer few political consequences for his devastating missteps...

‘Yet, while Trump lost to Joe Biden in large part because of his callous and clueless handling of the pandemic, the margin was disturbingly narrow. Other strongmen look more likely to survive politically — and to continue to add to the toll of needless deaths.

‘For his part, Modi not only enjoys much higher approval ratings than Trump ever did. He has also survived, already, blunders that would have wrecked any other political career: demonetization in 2016 and a botched lockdown last year that caused the biggest and most desperate internal migration witnessed in India since 1947.

‘Modi has flourished with the help of something Trump never had and the likes of Boris Johnson only sporadically enjoys: a compliant media. Indeed, one reason why complacency about the virus spread so widely in India is that Modi personally asked owners and editors of press and television in March last year to focus on “positive” stories. Evidently, as his website put it, “it was important to tackle the spread of pessimism, negativity and rumor.”

Read here (Times of India, Apr 21, 2021)

Are China’s Covid shots less effective? Experts size up Sinovac

‘The good news is the vaccines work extremely well in combating severe Covid infections, according to Fiona Russell from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Melbourne and Paul Griffin, a professor from the University of Queensland in Brisbane. We asked them key questions about the merits of the Sinovac shot. Their comments have been edited and condensed for brevity.

‘How effective is the Sinovac vaccine really?

‘Russell: The Sinovac study was to look at how the vaccine works against the entire range of clinical symptoms, from mild infections to severe ones, including death. The efficacy data of about 50% is for very mild disease, requiring no treatment. For infections requiring some medical intervention, it’s about 84% and for moderate-to-severe Covid cases, it’s 100%.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Apr 14, 2021)

What’s the best Covid vaccine? Why it’s not so simple: Quick take on seven issues

‘A range of vaccines with different efficacy results now has given rise to worries that some people may refuse the shot on offer in hopes of getting a “better” one later. In reality, comparing efficacy numbers isn’t necessarily the best way to measure a vaccine’s value. And as suppliers struggle to meet global demand, experts say the best vaccine for you is probably whichever one you can get now.’

Bloomberg's Quick Take answers seven questions:

1. What does efficacy mean?
2. What efficacies are being reported?
3. Are the numbers reliable?
4. Why isn’t efficacy all that counts?
5. So numbers may be misleading?
6. What matters beyond the efficacy number?
7. What’s the bottom line?

Read here (Bloomberg, Mar 15, 2021)

Norway moves to calm vaccine anxiety after elderly deaths

‘Health authorities in Norway sought to allay safety concerns raised by the death of some elderly patients after they were vaccinated against Covid-19, saying there’s no evidence of a direct link.

‘The initial reports from Norway raised alarm as the world looks for early signs of potential side effects from the vaccines. Although doctors say it’s possible that vaccine side-effects could aggravate underlying illnesses, they were expecting nursing-home residents to die shortly after being vaccinated because deaths are more common among the frailest and sickest elderly patients.

“Clearly, Covid-19 is far more dangerous to most patients than vaccination,” Steinar Madsen, medical director at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, said by phone on Monday, adding that a connection between the vaccine and the deaths is difficult to prove. “We are not alarmed.”

Read here (Bloomberg, Jan 18, 2021)

US Covid cases found as early as December 2019, says study

‘Testing has found Covid-19 infections in the U.S. in December 2019, according to a study, providing further evidence indicating the coronavirus was spreading globally weeks before the first cases were reported in China.

‘The study published Monday identified 106 infections from 7,389 blood samples collected from donors in nine U.S. states between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17. The samples, collected by the American Red Cross, were sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing to detect if there were antibodies against the virus...

‘The revelations in the paper by researchers from the CDC reinforce the growing understanding that the coronavirus was silently circulating worldwide earlier than known, and could re-ignite debate over the origins of the pandemic.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Dec 1, 2020)

Coronavirus may stay for weeks on banknotes and touchscreens

‘The new coronavirus may remain infectious for weeks on banknotes, glass and other common surfaces, according to research by Australia’s top biosecurity laboratory that highlights risks from paper currency, touchscreen devices and grab handles and rails.

‘Scientists at the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness showed SARS-CoV-2 is “extremely robust,” surviving for 28 days on smooth surfaces such as glass found on mobile phone screens and plastic banknotes at room temperature, or 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit). That compares with 17 days survival for the flu virus.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Oct 11, 2020)

China is winning the virus-economy recovery race

‘The countries that best controlled the coronavirus pandemic haven’t necessarily been rewarded with economic benefits. But one economic giant has, and its success is likely to resonate for years. That’s China.

‘Among members of the Group of 20, the global club of leading economies, only China rebounded from a Covid-19 contraction as early as the second quarter of 2020, and its growth shows no signs of abating. In the U.S. and Europe, by contrast, where the virus arrived later, recoveries were slower and now face stiff headwinds.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Oct 2, 2020) 

Iceland has very good news about coronavirus immunity

‘A study on the pandemic in Iceland published in the New England Journal of Medicine offers some evidence to dispel such fears. The researchers have looked at serum samples from 30,576 individuals, using six different types of antibody testing (since different techniques often produce conflicting results).

‘The paper’s central findings are that, out of 1,797 tested people who’d recovered from Covid, 91.1% produced detectable levels of antibodies. Moreover, these levels hadn’t declined four months after the diagnosis. The immune response was higher among older individuals — who are at greater risk of developing a more dangerous form of the coronavirus — and among those who presented the worst symptoms.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Sept 3, 2020)

Starbucks Cafe’s Covid outbreak spared employees who wore masks

‘After a woman with the coronavirus visited a Starbucks cafe north of Seoul this month, more than two dozen patrons tested positive days later. But the four face mask-wearing employees escaped infection.

‘The Aug. 8 outbreak in the South Korean city of Paju is another example of how rapidly the SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread in confined, indoor spaces -- as well as ways to minimize transmission. With health authorities around the world still debating the evidence around face masks, the 27-person cluster linked to the air-conditioned coffee outlet adds more support for their mandatory use to help limit the spread of the Covid-19-causing virus.’

Read here (Bloomberg, August 25, 2020) 

China’s new outbreak shows signs the virus could be changing

‘Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday. Patients in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients.’

Read here (Bloomberg, May 20, 2020)

World faces rare ‘inflationary depression,’ says Keynes scholar

‘The world economy could face a unique “inflationary depression” as it emerges from lockdowns, with government spending propping up demand even as unemployment soars, according to economic historian Robert Skidelsky. What makes the economic shock from the coronavirus different to the Great Depression, he said, is that shuttering industries to control the disease has yet to cause a plunge in purchasing power -- largely because governments have stepped in to subsidize wages.’

Read here (Bloomberg, May 6, 2020)

Trump’s ‘Operation Warp Speed’ aims to rush coronavirus vaccine

‘The Trump administration is organising a Manhattan Project-style effort to drastically cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal of making enough doses for most Americans by year’s end.

‘Called “Operation Warp Speed,” the program will pull together private pharmaceutical companies, government agencies and the military to try to cut the development time for a vaccine by as much as eight months, according to two people familiar with the matter.’

Read here (Bloomberg, April 30, 2020)

Hong Kong’s edge over Singapore shows early social distancing works

‘The diverging outcomes in Hong Kong and Singapore -- which are still handling the virus far better than many other advanced economies -- show how early and strict social distancing measures may be more beneficial to the economy over the long term. In Europe and the US, politicians are now mulling lifting lockdowns to revive their economies, even as health experts caution against relaxing too soon.’

Read here (Bloomberg, April 10, 2020)

Key food prices on the up: Hopefully they are short-term spikes

‘Rice and wheat -- crops that account for about a third of the world’s calories -- have been making rapid climbs in spot and futures markets. For countries that rely on imports, this is creating an added financial burden just as the pandemic shatters their economies and erodes their purchasing power. In Nigeria, for example, the cost of rice in retail markets soared by more than 30% in the last four days of March alone...

‘To be clear, it’s likely the supply disruptions could prove temporary. And that will probably mean that wheat and rice will stabilise. In the last several years, food costs have been relatively benign thanks to plentiful supplies. Global rice and wheat reserves are both projected at all-time highs, according to the US Department of Agriculture.’

Read here (Bloomberg, April 6, 2020)

Nations with mandatory TB vaccines show fewer coronavirus deaths

‘The preliminary study posted on medRxiv, a site for unpublished medical research, finds a correlation between countries that require citizens to get the bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine and those showing fewer number of confirmed cases and deaths from Covid-19. Though only a correlation, clinicians in at least six countries are running trials that involve giving frontline health workers and elderly people the BCG vaccine to see whether it can indeed provide some level of protection against the new coronavirus.’

Read here (Bloomberg, April 2, 2020)

China to reveal a key virus data point: People with no symptoms

‘China’s government indicated it will start releasing data on how many people are infected with coronavirus but don’t have symptoms, seemingly responding to a growing chorus of domestic and international criticism of China’s data on the outbreak.’

Read here (Bloomberg, March 30, 2020)

In Singapore, quarantine comes with sea view, room service

“The government said last week it’s placing residents returning from the US and the UK in hotels to prevent them from potentially spreading the virus to their families, a measure that’s tighter than one that earlier allowed them to serve the period at home.”

Read here (Bloomberg, March 28, 2020)