The Covid bubble

‘When it comes to this year, growth may yet fall short of expectations. New strains of the coronavirus continue to emerge, raising concerns that existing vaccines may no longer be sufficient to end the pandemic. Repeated stop-go cycles undermine confidence, and political pressure to reopen the economy before the virus is contained will continue to build. Many small- and medium-size enterprises are still at risk of going bust, and far too many people are facing the prospects of long-term unemployment. The list of pathologies afflicting the economy is long and includes rising inequality, deleveraging by debt-burdened firms and workers, and political and geopolitical risks.

‘Asset markets remain frothy – if not outright bubbly – because they are being fed by super-accommodative monetary policies. But today’s price/earnings ratios are as high they were in the bubbles preceding the busts of 1929 and 2000. Between ever-rising leverage and the potential for bubbles in special-purpose acquisition companies, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies, today’s market mania offers plenty of cause for concern.’

Read here (Project Syndicate, Mar 2, 2021)

I spoke to 99 big thinkers about what our world after coronavirus might look like: This is what I learned

‘For me, it was truly a season of learning. Among other things, it helped me understand why COVID-19 is not a storm that we can just wait out. Our pre-pandemic world was anything but normal, and our post-pandemic world will not be like going back to normal at all. Here are four reasons why:

• Disruption will accelerate
• Politics will become more turbulent
• Pandemic habits will persist
• Crisis will create opportunities

Read here (Fast Company, Jan 13, 2021)

Seismic change: How Covid-19 altered world events in 2020

‘The year 2020 has been like no other. The coronavirus infected more than 67 million people, impacted 80% of jobs, and placed billions in lockdown... Here are just four political issues, from four continents, which were altered by the pandemic:

1. The US election
2. Hong Kong's protests
3. Ethiopia's Tigray crisis
4. Israel's political crisis’

Read here (BBC, Dec 27, 2020)

The magnifying glass: How Covid revealed the truth about our world

‘A fitting symbol of this global pandemic would be a magnifying glass. For while the virus ended and upended so many lives, and spawned a whole new vocabulary – social distancing, furlough, herd immunity, R number, circuit breaker, bubble, unmute – it did not remake the global landscape so much as reveal what was already there, or what was taking shape, just below the surface.

‘It amplified it, sometimes distorting it, sometimes illuminating it in alarming detail. Covid‑19, the disease that was first reported to the World Health Organization one year ago this month, served as a lens through which we were able to see our politics, our planet and ourselves with a new and shocking clarity. It made 2020 a year of revelation, even if what was uncovered was not nearly as new as we might imagine.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 11, 2020)

The long shadow of the pandemic: 2024 and beyond

‘Even when the world returns to ‘normal,’ the legacy of Covid-19 will transform everything from wages and health care to political attitudes and global supply chains...

‘One impact of the Covid-19 pandemic may be that society will begin to take scientists and scientific information more seriously. In medieval times, the manifest inability of rulers, priests, doctors and others in positions of power to control the plague led to a wholesale loss of faith in corresponding political, religious and medical institutions, and a strong desire for new sources of authority.

‘It is possible that the inability of our political institutions to fight the virus will have similar implications. The public’s expectation of effective state action will likely rise in the immediate and intermediate periods, if deaths continue or accelerate. And if the response continues to be incompetent, confidence in existing political institutions will fall. The many failures of American government at every level in confronting the pandemic, especially when compared with other countries, may result in a shift in political preferences aimed at undoing the existing order.’

Read here (Wall Street Journal, Oct 16, 2020)

China’s aggressive approach to coronavirus criticism ‘not working’

‘Observers call for Beijing to reflect on shortcomings of its engagement with the rest of the world as international sympathy fades. Mask diplomacy and bellicose statements need to go if global relations are to improve, they say.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 17, 2020)

Australia has dug itself into a hole in its relationship with China. It’s time to find a way out

‘Common sense should put a dampener on a belief that, at the wave of a wand, “supply chains” linking Australia and China can be remodelled. This sort of naive view loses sight of the fact that, for as long as it is possible to foresee, bulk commodities will form the staple of the trading relationship. Given this, Morrison would be advised to cease acting like a global traffic cop in efforts to hold China to account for the coronavirus pandemic...

‘What Australia should be doing – and should have done in the first place – is support international efforts to bring about an inquiry. It will have early opportunity next week when the World Health Assembly considers a European Commission resolution along those lines.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 17, 2020)