Delta has changed the pandemic risk calculus

‘Vaccination was a reprieve from this calculus of personal danger, at least for a while—get vaccinated, get your family and friends vaccinated, get back to a far more normal version of life. To a certain extent, that logic holds: The vaccines are still doing a fantastic job preventing hospitalization and death from the coronavirus’s far-more-transmissible Delta variant. But as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have roared back, concerns about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated and increased transmissibility among kids have muddied a lot of people’s ability to gauge their own day-to-day risk, just as they’d begun to venture back out into the world and hug, eat, and laugh in the same airspace together again. In some ways, pandemic life is more confusing than ever.’

Read here (The Atlantic, August 19, 2021)

Synthetic mRNA Covid vaccines: A risk-benefit analysis

‘With a “vaccine” based on untested technology, and safety trials still ongoing, is it safe to take the shot? And does it even work? And does a disease with an IFR of 0.2% even justify that risk?’

Read here (Off Guardian, Feb 22, 2021)

Evaluating Covid risk on planes, trains and automobiles

‘Many transit companies have established frequent cleaning routines, but evidence suggests that airborne transmission of the novel coronavirus poses a greater danger than surfaces. The virus is thought to be spread primarily by small droplets, called aerosols, that hang in the air and larger droplets that fall to the ground within six feet or so. Although no mode of public transportation is completely safe, there are some concrete ways to reduce risk, whether on an airplane, train or bus—or even in a shared car.’

Read here (Scientific American, Nov 19, 2020)

Stop wiping down groceries and focus on bigger risks, say experts on coronavirus transmission

“To the best of my knowledge, in real life, scientists like me — an epidemiologist and a physician — and virologists basically don’t worry too much about these things,” said David Morens, a senior adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony S. Fauci... 

‘But public confusion about the coronavirus and surfaces is understandable, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “Scientists really haven't really done a very good job of explaining how you get evidence for different types of transmission or different transmission routes.” Finally, she said, it’s important to remember that “viruses have to have a host and they can’t replicate without one. So … the main place that’s going to be the source of virus in anybody’s household is going to be the people in it and not the surfaces or the physical environment.” “Even if there’s virus kicking around on certain things,” she said, “that risk can really be mitigated practically by washing your hands.”

Read here (Washington Post via MSN, Oct 23, 2020)

An analysis of three Covid-19 outbreaks: How they happened and how they can be avoided

‘A crowded restaurant to celebrate the Chinese New Year; 100 workers infected inside a 19-story building; a group of devout Buddhists travelling by bus for a religious ceremony. These were the scenarios for three outbreaks of Covid-19 that have been carefully documented by the authorities. What happened in each one? What were the risk factors? What lessons can be learned, now that we are trying to get back to normal and return to restaurants, offices and other shared spaces?’

Read here (El Pais, June 18, 2020)

Why is it hard to do what is right?

‘In the fight to contain the spread of coronavirus, Malaysians have split into two camps: the risk-takers and the rule-followers. On one side are carefree people who ignore public health measures; on the other are the anxious ones coming to grips with the reality of life with Covid-19. What a depressing spectacle has been the effect of the recovery movement control order involving public transport and eating out.’

Read here (Free Malaysia Today, June 14, 2020)

Coronavirus: How exposed is your job?

‘Millions of workers are doing their day jobs from makeshift set-ups in their living rooms and kitchens, while those in England who can't work from home are now encouraged to go back in if they can do so safely. But how exposed to coronavirus might you be in your job? And how does that compare to others? Data from the UK's Office for National Statistics, based on a US survey, puts into context the risk of exposure to disease, as well as the amount of close human contact workers had before social distancing and other safety measures were introduced.’

Read here (BBC, May 14, 2020)