The economic case for global vaccinations: An epidemiological model with international production networks

‘We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. 

‘Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.’

Download PDF here (NBER.org, January, 2021) 

Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine

‘It is a daunting proposition — a coronavirus-tinged world without a foreseeable end. But experts in epidemiology, disaster planning and vaccine development say embracing that reality is crucial to the next phase of America’s pandemic response. The long-term nature of covid-19, they say, should serve as a call to arms for the public, a road map for the trillions of dollars Congress is spending and a fixed navigational point for the nation’s current, chaotic state-by-state patchwork strategy.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 28, 2020)

Let’s remember that the coronavirus is still a mystery

‘I find a gulf in perceptions between experts and nonexperts. Many Americans believe that we are now emerging from the pandemic and that, as President Trump says, we can see light at the end of the tunnel. Yet many epidemiologists, while acknowledging how little they know, are deeply apprehensive about a big second wave this fall, more brutal than anything we’ve endured so far. That mix of humility and apprehensiveness seems the best guide as we devise policy to survive a plague. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst.’

Read here (New York Times, May 20, 2020)

Sympathy for the epidemiologists: Paul Krugman

‘...the White House probably likes IHME [University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation] less today than it did yesterday: the institute just drastically revised its projected death total upward, from 72,000 to 134,000. Documents obtained by The New York Times suggest that modelers within the U.S. government have also revised death projections sharply upward...

‘So let me give a shout-out to the hard-working, much-criticized epidemiologists trying to get this pandemic right. You may take a lot of abuse when you get it wrong, which you unavoidably will on occasion. But you’re doing what must be done. Also, welcome to my world.’

Read here (New York Times, May 5, 2020)

Shocking draft FEMA report sees 200,000 Covid-19 cases, 3,000 deaths daily by June 1

‘The shocking numbers come just as dozens of states begin to drop strict social distancing requirements and open businesses to workers and customers at President Donald Trump’s urging. A rate of 3,000 deaths a day would be about 90,000 deaths a month. That death toll rate would be a 70% increase from the current average of 1,750 a day. The number of current cases of COVID-19 in the nation is about 25,000 daily.’

Read here (Huffington Post, May 5, 2020). Download here

US launches SPHERES consortium to monitor, conduct genomic research and share information on the Coronavirus

CDC is leading the SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing for Public Health Emergency Response, Epidemiology and Surveillance (SPHERES), a new national genomics consortium to coordinate SARS-CoV-2 sequencing across the United States. Large-scale, rapid genomic sequencing of the virus that causes COVID-19 will allow public health experts to:

• Monitor important changes in the virus as it continues to circulate.
• Gain important insights to support contact tracing.
• Provide crucial information to aid in identifying diagnostic and therapeutic targets.
• Advance public health research in the areas of transmission dynamics, host response, and evolution of the virus.

Read here (US CDC, April 30, 2020)

The architect of Sweden’s controversially lax coronavirus response says he thinks it’s working

‘Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, has defended his country’s unusually lax response to the coronavirus. Sweden has encouraged social distancing but has not forced businesses, restaurants, or schools to close. Tegnell said the strategy had achieved its goal of defending the health service and that Stockholm was showing signs of herd immunity. Its case numbers are comparable to neighbouring countries, but the death rate is much higher. Tegnell said it was “very difficult” to know if a lockdown could have prevented more deaths, particularly in care homes.’

Read here (Business Insider, April 24, 2020)

Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis calls out media for panicking the public over COVID-19, reasons that ‘flattening the curve’ may make things worse for overall health system

‘Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound—in theory,’ he wrote in a paper in March. ‘A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment. Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated,’ he continued. ‘If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse… Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.’

Read here (Straight, April 10, 2020)

Video on dynamics of pandemics

“This 8 minute video is more informative than 2 weeks of cable news.” This is one of the comments on this video. It gives a great summary of how pandemics develop so that people can be better prepared for their consequences. It is a useful way to explain the epidemiology of pandemics to a mass audience.

View here