A tale of two pandemics: the true cost of Covid in the global south

‘As the climate crisis was telling us long before Covid blared the message, what happens in one place can have repercussions in many places. That’s why the pandemic must be understood not as an anvil-from-the-sky medical crisis, but as something far more encompassing. “Science is the exit strategy,” the head of the Wellcome Trust famously said, early in the pandemic. But, though science is necessary, it’s hardly sufficient, particularly when we’re interested not simply in exit but in re-entry. As raucous, inward-turned nationalisms continue to claim followers, we’ll need to resist the go-it-alone fantasies of autarky. Rather, a post-pandemic era calls for a richer sense of our mutual obligations.’

Read here (The Guardian, Nov 23, 2021)

America has lost the plot on Covid

‘We know how this ends: The coronavirus becomes endemic, and we live with it forever. But what we don’t know—and what the U.S. seems to have no coherent plan for—is how we are supposed to get there. We’ve avoided the hard questions whose answers will determine what life looks like in the next weeks, months, and years: How do we manage the transition to endemicity? When are restrictions lifted? And what long-term measures do we keep, if any, when we reach endemicity?

‘The answers were simpler when we thought we could vaccinate our way to herd immunity. But vaccinations in the U.S. have plateaued. The Delta variant and waning immunity against transmission mean herd immunity may well be impossible even if every single American gets a shot. So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Nov 1, 2021)

Will the pandemic make us nicer people? Probably not. But it might change us in other ways

‘Throughout the pandemic, we’ve been awash in feel-good stories about celebrating essential workers, uplifting local businesses, appreciating what we have — all shining a light on our better angels. A year ago, Kelly Ripa told The Washington Post, “I think we’re all going to be better off for this” because “we’re all being satisfied with less.”

‘But, if experts in history and science are any guide, this altruism is probably not going to last. We are more likely to put this behind us as soon as possible, dive back into life with abandon and push boundaries. If anything, we will probably be less concerned with what other people think. Carpe diem, baby.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 1, 2021)

Coronavirus set to scar world economy for decades amid an uneven, unequal recovery, observers say

‘All told, the decline in gross domestic product last year was the biggest since the Great Depression. The International Labour Organization estimates it cost the equivalent of 255 million people full-time jobs. Researchers at the Pew Research Centre reckon the global middle class shrank for the first time since the 1990s.

‘The costs will fall unevenly. A scorecard of 31 metrics across 162 nations devised by Oxford Economics Ltd. highlighted the Philippines, Peru, Colombia and Spain as the economies most vulnerable to long-term scarring. Australia, Japan, Norway, Germany and Switzerland were seen as best placed.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Apr 18, 2021)

Vaccinations, increasing Covid-19 cases, and the Peltzman effect

‘How security measures and regulations meant to protect, actually increase risky behaviour in the public, and how not to become a stereotype...

‘So, what has this got to do with Covid-19 vaccinations? This is where Dr Puri and his message come in. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan reportedly tested positive with the coronavirus a few days after being vaccinated.  People assume, wrongly, that vaccination (especially after the first dose) makes you invincible and you can get back to partying and a pre-Covid-19 normal life. Not true. The immunity builds up only a few weeks after the second dose. Also, immunity is not absolute. You can still get infected after being vaccinated, just like you could die in a car accident even though you are wearing a seatbelt. If you wear a seatbelt, you should not drive recklessly. Similarly, if you are vaccinated, you should not behave recklessly. You need to follow the basics—wear a mask, maintain social distance and wash your hands. Furthermore, current vaccines may not be able to protect you against future variants of the virus.

‘So why take the vaccine? Because it does reduce the risk of you getting the virus, and more importantly the risk of dying is significantly reduced. But just like the seat belt can't protect you if you drive like an idiot, the vaccine won’t protect you if you behave like one. Sometimes a seat belt doesn't protect you even if you are driving carefully (because some other idiot is driving recklessly) or you are an innocent bystander. It's the same case with the vaccine. Some other idiot can get you infected, even if you are an innocent bystander. Hence, please don’t believe that being vaccinated makes you superhuman.’

Read here (Forbes India, Apr 8, 2021) 

The “unvaccinated” question

‘So, the New Normals are discussing the Unvaccinated Question. What is to be done with us? No, not those who haven’t been “vaccinated” yet. Us. The “Covidiots.” The “Covid deniers.” The “science deniers.” The “reality deniers.” Those who refuse to get “vaccinated,” ever.

‘There is no place for us in New Normal society. The New Normals know this and so do we. To them, we are a suspicious, alien tribe of people. We do not share their ideological beliefs. We do not perform their loyalty rituals, or we do so only grudgingly, because they force us to do so...

‘No, the Unvaccinated are not the Jews and the New Normals are not flying big Swastika flags, but totalitarianism is totalitarianism, regardless of which Goebbelsian Big Lies, and ideology, and official enemies it is selling. The historical context and costumes change, but its ruthless trajectory remains the same.

‘Today, the New Normals are presenting us with a “choice,” (a) conform to their New Normal ideology or (b) social segregation. What do you imagine they have planned for us tomorrow?’

Read here (Off Guardian, Mar 29, 2021)

How mRNA technology could change the world

‘mRNA’s story likely will not end with COVID-19: Its potential stretches far beyond this pandemic...

‘But mRNA’s story likely will not end with COVID-19: Its potential stretches far beyond this pandemic. This year, a team at Yale patented a similar RNA-based technology to vaccinate against malaria, perhaps the world’s most devastating disease. Because mRNA is so easy to edit, Pfizer says that it is planning to use it against seasonal flu, which mutates constantly and kills hundreds of thousands of people around the world every year. The company that partnered with Pfizer last year, BioNTech, is developing individualized therapies that would create on-demand proteins associated with specific tumors to teach the body to fight off advanced cancer. In mouse trials, synthetic-mRNA therapies have been shown to slow and reverse the effects of multiple sclerosis. “I’m fully convinced now even more than before that mRNA can be broadly transformational,” Özlem Türeci, BioNTech’s chief medical officer, told me. “In principle, everything you can do with protein can be substituted by mRNA”.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Mar 29, 2021)

Covid-19 is different now: Our response to Covid-21 cannot be myopic

‘We are at an inflection point that will change the reality of this disease. The most insidious future is one in which we fail to change our moral benchmarks, and end up measuring the danger of COVID-21 by the standards of 2020. If wealthy countries with early access to vaccines abandon continued, global coronavirus-vaccination efforts as their cases fall or when the disease becomes milder for them, a still-severe disease could haunt the world indefinitely—and lead to rebounds everywhere.

‘Avoiding this myopia is the central challenge of COVID-21. It extends to the systemic problems highlighted by this pandemic. Much of the damage the virus has wrought has come indirectly, by exacerbating food and housing insecurity, for example, or restricting access to medical care. The Biden administration has elevated science and begun to focus on comprehensive approaches to prevention. No longer is federal leadership hawking hydroxychloroquine, suggesting injections with “disinfectant,” or stoking xenophobic sentiment. But this sudden sense of order is a beginning, not an end.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Mar 27, 2021)

Yuval Noah Harari: 'The world after Covid'

Yuval Noah Harari interviewed by Alec Russell, FT Weekend editor, in the session, 'The World after Covid', during the FTWeekend Digital Festival 2021

View here (FTWeekend Digital Festival 2021, Youtube, Mar 22, 2021)

Coronavirus: How can travel be more sustainable post-pandemic?

"The coronavirus pandemic has been a global shock moment that has led to a rethink in the tourism industry, which is so accustomed to success," said Martin Balas of the Center for Sustainable Tourism (ZENAT) at the Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development.

‘Issues such as climate protection and overtourism, which were already major challenges for tourism before COVID, have now come into even sharper focus, Balas told DW. The German Travel Association (DRV) also sees the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity for more sustainability in the industry.

"Sustainable travel is a trend that has been around for years, and the travel industry has already responded to it and will continue to do so in the future," said Ellen Madeker of DRV. Several large travel companies are preparing awareness campaigns designed to increase travelers' awareness of the impacts of travel.’

Read here (DW, Mar 9, 2021)

US CDC issues ‘Interim public health recommendations for fully vaccinated people’

Fully vaccinated people can:

• Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing
• Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing
• Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known exposure if asymptomatic

For now, fully vaccinated people should continue to:

• Take precautions in public like wearing a well-fitted mask and physical distancing
• Wear masks, practice physical distancing, and adhere to other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people who are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease or who have an unvaccinated household member who is at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease
• Wear masks, maintain physical distance, and practice other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people from multiple households
• Avoid medium- and large-sized in-person gatherings
• Get tested if experiencing COVID-19 symptoms
• Follow guidance issued by individual employers
• Follow CDC and health department travel requirements and recommendations

Read here (US CDC, Mar 8, 2021) 

What’s ahead in the second year of Covid-19?

‘When COVID-19 began its insidious march across the globe more than a year ago, it disrupted every industry and forced fast innovation as business leaders worked to adjust to a new world order. Last year, in Wharton’s Fast Forward video series, several of the School’s faculty offered their insight into what the second half of 2020 would look like during the pandemic. That insight is needed even more this year as the ground keeps shifting, vaccines are rolled out, and new coronavirus mutations emerge.

‘Much has changed since the start of the pandemic, from consumer behavior to health care delivery to working from home. What changes are lasting? And what lessons have we learned? We’ve asked some of our faculty to analyze what’s in store for the rest of 2021. Their responses appear below:

• Will working from home become permanent for nonessential employees?
• What’s the outlook for the stock market and the economy this year?
• How will the pandemic continue to change the delivery of health care in the U.S.?
• What crisis management lessons will business leaders keep going forward?
• What changes in retail and shopping will become permanent?
• What is the future of the gig economy in the U.S.?

Read here (Wharton@Knowledge, Mar 8, 2021) 

The secret weapon [abolishing factory farming] against pandemics that nobody wants to talk about | Alex O'Connor

‘Alex O’Connor is a prominent podcaster, YouTuber and student at the University of Oxford. In his TEDx talk, Alex puts forward the case against factory farming, not only based on ethical concerns, but also by exploring how factory farms can become breeding grounds for Zoonotic viruses.’

View here (TedTalk, Youtube, Mar 5, 2021)

100,000 deaths and a White Paper: What we need instead in Britain

‘We must refuse to engage on this paltry terrain. The pandemic, and the government’s abject failure to respond to it, should prompt a radical set of popular demands. Not since 1948 has there been such overwhelming public support for the NHS, or for the medical scientists and public health experts without whose knowledge and warnings even more lives would have been lost. In this context, and in recognition of how close we have come to an even greater disaster, we must reject this tinkering with the status quo.

‘Integration’ has served as a useful cover for Simon Stevens’s dismantling of the Lansley competition-based model, but it is a perverse misnomer for what the white paper proposes to embody in law. True integration is incompatible with a system of in-built conflicts of interest. Decisions about service provision need to be clearly accountable both to Parliament, and locally, to the public, neither of which is the case in what is proposed. Integration of healthcare with social care is indeed also needed, but is only possible if social care also becomes a public service. And neither this, nor adequate funding for the NHS, is ‘unaffordable’, especially while real interest rates are negative. What is unaffordable is to face the next pandemic as unprotected as we were for COVID-19.’

Read here (The Bullet, Mar 2, 2021)

Vaccine apartheid or corona-utopia — 6 post-pandemic futures

‘There are two types of people in the post-pandemic world: those who have been vaccinated and those who haven’t. Now, national leaders across the world are considering making that official.

‘So-called immunity passes are already a reality in Israel. With nearly half of the adult population vaccinated, the government announced last month that gyms, hotels, pools and cultural events can reopen for people who can present a QR code proving their immunity. The U.K. is exploring a similar option, and in the EU, experts say a proposal for a “digital green pass” facilitating cross-border travel could easily find domestic applications...

‘Ethicists and public health advocates note that such passes would be wildly discriminatory right now, when vaccines are in shortage. But they could easily become reality once supply outstrips demand (at least in wealthy countries) and restaurants, hotels, airlines and cultural venues seek safe ways to reopen.

‘How they are managed, and how they are accepted, will determine whether immunity passes offer a return to normalcy or usher in some sort of dystopic sci-fi scenario. Using our crystal ball (and a good deal of reporting), POLITICO has compiled snapshots from six possible futures that might be lying in wait for us before the end of the year:

1. Corona-utopia
2. Vaccine apartheid
3. Back to the future
4. Legal limbo
5. Whole new hassle
6. Why bother?

Read here (Politico, March 2021) 

Will I have to wear a mask after getting the Covid vaccine? The science explained

‘Public health authorities want people to keep wearing masks and social distancing, even after they receive a vaccine. This might seem counterintuitive – after all, if someone gets a vaccine, aren’t they protected from the coronavirus?

‘The answer is complicated: the vast majority of people who are vaccinated will be protected from Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, vaccinated people may still be able to transmit the virus, even though they do not display any symptoms. “We know now the vaccines can protect, but what we haven’t had enough time to really understand is – does it protect from spreading?” said Avery August, professor of immunology at Cornell University.

‘That is because the the SARS-CoV-2 virus may still colonize the respiratory tract, even as systemic immune cells protect the overall body from the disease it causes – Covid-19.’

Read here (The Guardian, Feb 26, 2021)

The scientist who’s been right about Covid-19 vaccines predicts what’s next

‘[Hilda] Bastian — an expert in analyzing clinical trial data, founding member of the Cochrane Collaboration, and a former National Institutes of Health official — has gone down rabbit holes before. There was the time she traveled the US on her own dime to research and take historical photos for a Wikipedia list of African American mathematicians.

‘But her obsession with vaccines in this pandemic has been especially fruitful: She’s called the race right at just about every turn...

‘Nearly a year into her project, I caught up with Bastian to ask where our blind spots are now and how she predicts the vaccine story — and the pandemic — will unfold. She talked about the need for health officials to acknowledge that coronavirus vaccines have potentially “big differences in efficacy and adverse events,” a time in the future when we may need Covid-19 vaccine boosters every year, and the problem of people in rich countries like the US shamelessly hogging vaccines.’

Read here (Vox, Feb 24, 2021)

The end of Covid-19 pandemic? Johns Hopkins’ Dr Makary says probably

‘A February 18 Opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal is raising hopes, and possibly healthy skepticism, with its title and thesis being: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.” The author is Dr. Martin Makary, a professor of health policy and management and public health expert at Johns Hopkins University. He notes that the media is under reporting on the dramatic fact that COVID-19 cases are down 77 percent just in the last six weeks. Largely this is, “because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.” 

‘Applying some statistics to the case data, we could deduce the around 55 percent in the US have natural immunity. At the same time, vaccinations have been rolling out, and 15 percent of Americans have gotten a vaccine with the percentage rising fast. Based on these factors, “There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Read here (TrialSiteNews, Feb 20, 2021)

A quite possibly wonderful summer

‘The summer of 2021 is shaping up to be historic... After months of soaring deaths and infections, COVID-19 cases across the United States are declining even more sharply than experts anticipated. This is expected to continue, and rates of serious illness and death will plummet even faster than cases, as high-risk populations are vaccinated. Even academics who have spent the pandemic delivering ominous warnings have shifted their tone to cautiously optimistic now that vaccination rates are exploding.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Feb 19, 2021)

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means

‘In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come (see 'Endemic future')...

‘More than one-third of the respondents to Nature’s survey thought that it would be possible to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from some regions while it continued to circulate in others. In zero-COVID regions there would be a continual risk of disease outbreaks, but they could be quenched quickly by herd immunity if most people had been vaccinated.’ 

Read here (Nature, Feb 16, 2021)