When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? McKinsey & Co update August 2021

‘This article updates our perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end to reflect the latest information on vaccine rollout, variants of concern, and disease progression. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. Our own analysis supports the view of others that the Delta variant has effectively moved overall herd immunity out of reach in most countries for the time being. The United Kingdom’s experience nevertheless suggests that once a country has weathered a wave of Delta-driven cases, it may be able to resume the transition toward normalcy. Beyond that, a more realistic epidemiological endpoint might arrive not when herd immunity is achieved but when COVID-19 can be managed as an endemic disease. The biggest overall risk would likely then be the emergence of a significant new variant.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, August 23, 2021)

The Covid-19 vaccine: Lessons and challenges

‘The rapid deployment of vaccines is key in accelerating the return to normalcy... As policymakers vaccinate their populations against an ever-changing COVID-19, they’re discovering numerous challenges along the way. In this episode of The McKinsey Podcast, McKinsey partners Lieven Van der Veken and Tania Zulu Holt share insights on progress and lessons learned so far, and how to help get the vaccine distributed as quickly and safely as possible. An edited transcript of their conversation follows.’

Listen here (McKinsey & Co, Apr 9, 2021)

When will the pandemic end? (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

‘This article updates our earlier perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end. Transition toward normalcy in the United States remains most likely in the second quarter of 2021 and herd immunity in the third and fourth quarters, but the emergence of new strains and a slow start to vaccine rollout raise real risks to both timelines. We also add a perspective for the United Kingdom...

Transition toward normalcy

‘A transition toward normalcy will occur when COVID-19 mortality falls and the disease is de-exceptionalized in society. COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition, but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response. During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use in many settings), but mortality will fall significantly, allowing greater normalization of business and social activities. This will be driven by a combination of early vaccine rollout (which, being directed first at those at greatest risk, should reduce deaths faster than cases), seasonality, increasing natural immunity, and stronger public-health response.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

Twenty images that offer a lens on 2020

‘McKinsey designers highlight the photos and illustrations that helped us tell the visual story of a remarkable year...

‘The way we see the world may well have changed in the course of 2020—as the global pandemic has upended our personal and professional lives. As the year draws to a close, we turned to McKinsey’s designers to get perspective on the images that helped bring our insights to life.

‘While we sometimes commission bespoke art for our articles and reports, for the most part we curate our visuals from outside image libraries. Even in prepandemic times, this presented special challenges when it came to selection (does the visual messaging fit the topic and tone of the piece?) and adaptation (is the image treatment consistent with our style and brand?). But in a year where much of the world spent many months maintaining some level of physical distancing, large swaths of the images in the libraries we access—those that showed people in the close proximity we were all used to before the pandemic—became unusable.

‘See our designers’ favorites from this year and why they resonated, then read the stories behind them to understand some of the year’s most important issues.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Dec 17, 2020)

The Covid-19 vaccines are here: What comes next?

‘The outstanding progress made by the scientific community has brought the vaccine closer to our doorstep. The baton now passes from the scientific community to a new collaborative effort, led by government and policy makers, healthcare professionals, the private sector, and other community groups. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout will be unlike any other prior vaccine delivery effort. Governments and their partners will be expected to rapidly accelerate their efforts to ensure they are able to address community expectations.

‘Multiple factors will make the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine more complex than any other previous vaccine effort.

‘Accelerated pace and giant scale of delivery: Countries face a four-by-four challenge: a vaccine arriving at four times the pace and requiring delivery at four times the scale.

‘Four times the pace. The coronavirus vaccine has been developed four times faster than the mumps vaccine, which was the previous record for a vaccine developed for use in a widespread community setting. The consequence of this pace of clinical development is that governments and policy makers have had far less time than previously to prepare for a robust vaccination program.

‘Four times the scale. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout is expected to be four times larger than any previous effort because the aspiration is for broad adoption at significantly higher rates than typically achieved with seasonal adult vaccines, such as the flu. Compared with the flu, for which roughly half the adult population across the OECD is covered each year with a single dose, the COVID-19 situation may require vaccinating more than half the adult population with two doses. Globally, that means billions of people could seek the vaccine.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Dec 9, 2020) 

When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? Could be 2022 or beyond, says McKinsey & Co

‘Our estimate is based on the widest possible reading of the current scientific literature and our discussions with public-health experts in the United States and around the world. It’s possible that unforeseen developments such as significantly more infections than expected this winter could lead to earlier herd immunity. And real downside risk remains, especially with respect to duration of immunity and long-term vaccine safety (given the limited data available so far). Herd immunity might not be reached until 2022 or beyond.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Nov 23, 2020)

When will the Covid-19 pandemic end?

Normalcy by spring, and herd immunity by fall? This McKinsey & Co article assesses the prospects for an end to the pandemic in 2021.

‘More than eight months and 900,000 deaths into the COVID-19 pandemic,1 people around the world are longing for an end. In our view, there are two important definitions of “end,” each with a separate timeline:

• An epidemiological end point when herd immunity is achieved.
• A transition to a form of normalcy. 

‘Both the epidemiological and normalcy ends to the COVID-19 pandemic are important. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. In the United States, while the transition to normal might be accomplished sooner, the epidemiological end point looks most likely to be reached in the second half of 2021. Other advanced economies are probably on similar timetables.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Sept 21, 2020)

The curse of ‘The Lucky Country’: In search of economic antidotes to Covid-19

‘The human tragedy and the knock-on economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis have sparked intense emotions. The past few months have triggered fear and uncertainty in even the most rational Australians. In McKinsey’s weekly sentiment polling, the majority of respondents say they are very or extremely concerned with all strands of the COVID‑19 situation—from the economy to their health to the length of the shutdown (and these figures are increasing each week) (Exhibit 1). This has coalesced into an arresting statistic: almost 80 percent of Australians say they are unsure or pessimistic about the country’s economic recovery.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, May 4, 2020)

Major challenges remain in Covid-19 testing

‘The phrase “when we have adequate testing” has become the siren song within many conversations around return, namely in reopening the economy. Unfortunately, many of these conversations do not fully consider some critical issues around availability, test characteristics, and — importantly — test strategy. These issues suggest a need to rapidly consider other methods of protecting the population during reentry that can be implemented to complement testing. Such protective methods could include physical barriers, universal masking (while acknowledging supply-chain issues with personal protective equipment), and physical distancing in public spaces.’

Read here (Mckinsey & Co, May 2020)

From surviving to thriving: Reimagining the post-COVID-19 return

‘In this article, we suggest that in order to come back stronger, companies should reimagine their business model as they return to full speed. The moment is not to be lost: those who step up their game will be better off and far more ready to confront the challenges—and opportunities—of the next normal than those who do not. There are four strategic areas to focus on: recovering revenue, rebuilding operations, rethinking the organization, and accelerating the adoption of digital solutions.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, May 1, 2020)

McKinsey & Co: The phase of Return is in sight. But rapid Return comes with higher risk, and a new reality

Pages 29 to 55 of this 63-page McKinsey & Co report start with the following introduction:

• Weeks of shelter-in-place provisions globally have caused a deep economic challenge, straining governments’ ability to save lives while safeguarding livelihoods
• Governments are now considering options and timing for a gradual re-opening, with the US being the most recent announcement.
• Many of these re-openings are occurring in very different environments. Some geographies are considering opening after they have plateaued, while others are seeking to return after additional verifications are complete (e.g., hospital capacity, testing capacity, other)
• These variations are driving concerns within businesses around risks associated with a return-to-work, and whether these risks can be adequately managed
• Additionally, COVID-19 has changed many realities for businesses. Remote first may be a goal achievable in months, consumers have structurally adopted digital channels, and the prospect of the largest economic recession since the second World War could quickly challenge the business

The section goes on to discuss ‘Return planning’ which is relevant to all Malaysians as we enter the phase of conditional MCO.

Download the report here (McKinsey & Co, April 24, 2020)