Lancet report says Covid-19 is primarily airborne, safety protocol should change urgently

‘A report published in the journal The Lancet has dismissed the predominant scientific view that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, is not an airborne pathogen. The authors of the report have listed 10 reasons for their claim that "SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted primarily by the airborne route".

‘The paper, written by six experts from the UK, the US and Canada, argues that there are "insufficient grounds for concluding that a pathogen is not airborne" while "the totality of scientific evidence indicates otherwise". The experts called for urgent modification in the Covid-19 safety protocol.’

Read here (India Today, Apr 16, 2021)

Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Read here (The Lancet, April 15, 2021)

Vaccines alone will not stop Covid spreading - Here's why

‘Many of us are hoping vaccines against coronavirus will be our route out of lockdown, enabling us to reclaim our old lives. But scientists say jabs alone will not currently be enough and other measures are still needed.’

Read here (BBC, Apr 12, 2021)

New Covid variants have changed the game, and vaccines will not be enough. Lancet Covid-19 Commission calls for global ‘maximum suppression’

‘Put simply, the game has changed, and a successful global rollout of current vaccines by itself is no longer a guarantee of victory... No one is truly safe from COVID-19 until everyone is safe. We are in a race against time to get global transmission rates low enough to prevent the emergence and spread of new variants. The danger is that variants will arise that can overcome the immunity conferred by vaccinations or prior infection.

‘What’s more, many countries lack the capacity to track emerging variants via genomic surveillance. This means the situation may be even more serious than it appears.

‘As members of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Taskforce on Public Health, we call for urgent action in response to the new variants. These new variants mean we cannot rely on the vaccines alone to provide protection but must maintain strong public health measures to reduce the risk from these variants. At the same time, we need to accelerate the vaccine program in all countries in an equitable way. Together, these strategies will deliver “maximum suppression” of the virus.’

Read here (The Conversation, Apr 6, 2021)

Download report here (Lancet Covid-19 Commission Taskforce on Public Health,  March 2021)

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against Covid-19

‘Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.’

Read here (Science magazine, Feb 19, 2021) 

The governance of Covid-19: Anthropogenic risk, evolutionary learning, and the future of the social state

‘We consider the implications of the Covid-19 crisis for the theory and practice of governance. We define ‘governance’ as the process through which, in the case of a given entity or polity, resources are allocated, decisions made and policies implemented, with a view to ensuring the effectiveness of its operations in the face of risks in its environment. Core to this, we argue, is the organisation of knowledge through public institutions, including the legal system. Covid-19 poses a particular type of ‘Anthropogenic’ risk, which arises when organised human activity triggers feedback effects from the natural environment. As such it requires the concerted mobilisation of knowledge and a directed response from governments and international agencies. 

‘In this context, neoliberal theories and practices, which emphasise the self-adjusting properties of systems of governance in response to external shocks, are going to be put to the test. In states’ varied responses to Covid-19 to date, it is already possible to observe some trends. One of them is the widespread mischaracterisation of the measures taken to address the epidemic at the point of its emergence in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January and February 2020. 

‘Public health measures of this kind, rather than constituting a ‘state of exception’ in which legality is set aside, are informed by practices which originated in the welfare or social states of industrialised countries, and which were successful in achieving a ‘mortality revolution’ in the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Relearning this history would seem to be essential for the future control of pandemics and other Anthropogenic risks.’

Read here (NCBI, Dec 4, 2020)

Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures that work, lag time, population compliance and more: The Lancet

‘A recently published article in Lancet Infectious Diseases has taken a look at potential associations between country-level reproduction numbers (R) and non-pharmaceutical interventions introduced and lifted throughout the course of the pandemic.

‘Increases in R were associated with relaxing of the following measures: school closures, public event bans, bans on gatherings greater than ten people, stay-at-home orders and other movement restrictions. However, the only significant associations for increases in R above 1 were school reopening and lifting bans on gatherings over 10 people. 

‘Authors noted that the full effect of introducing or lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions took 1-3 weeks on average from the date of implementation. Authors made further recommendations regarding the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions by national governments, noting that other factors, such as population compliance, also influence the success of non-pharmaceutical interventions and may not be fully captured in the study.’

Read here (The Lancet via Johns Hopkins University, Oct 22, 2020)