A tale of two pandemics: the true cost of Covid in the global south

‘As the climate crisis was telling us long before Covid blared the message, what happens in one place can have repercussions in many places. That’s why the pandemic must be understood not as an anvil-from-the-sky medical crisis, but as something far more encompassing. “Science is the exit strategy,” the head of the Wellcome Trust famously said, early in the pandemic. But, though science is necessary, it’s hardly sufficient, particularly when we’re interested not simply in exit but in re-entry. As raucous, inward-turned nationalisms continue to claim followers, we’ll need to resist the go-it-alone fantasies of autarky. Rather, a post-pandemic era calls for a richer sense of our mutual obligations.’

Read here (The Guardian, Nov 23, 2021)

Developing countries desperately need Covid-19 financing

‘Failure to sufficiently accelerate comprehensive efforts to contain COVID-19 contagion has greatly worsened the catastrophe in developing countries. Grossly inadequate financing of relief, recovery and reform efforts has also further set back progress, including sustainable development.’

This story is well argued and contains several relevant and informative links under the following subheadings:

• Uncertain and unequal recovery
• Global disparities
• Insufficient international support
• Leveraging the new SDRs
• Financing options for developing countries

Read here (IPS News, May 25, 2021)

Wider vaccination, herd immunity vital to recovery — Moody's Analytics

‘A stronger push towards wider vaccination and herd immunity will be key to domestic recovery and should facilitate an economic rebound as emergence of new Covid-19 variants poses high risk, Moody's Analytics economist Sonia Zhu said. Malaysia's economy contracted by 0.5% year-on-year in the March quarter, following a 3.4% slump in the fourth quarter of 2020.

"Despite a gradual easing of gross domestic product (GDP) contractions, conditions will likely stay weak in the coming quarter due to the latest Movement Control Order (MCO)," she said in a statement today... "Hence, a stronger push towards wider vaccination is key," she said, adding that at present, only 3.4% of Malaysia's total population has received at least one dose of a vaccine.

‘The slow vaccination rate casts doubt on the ability to reach herd immunity target by the end of 2021, tilting the balance of risks to the downside for the subsequent quarter, opined Zhu.’

Read here (The Edge, May 14, 2021)

India Covid crisis: Four reasons it will derail the world economy

It is clear that there is now a humanitarian crisis of significant proportions. India is a country of 1.4 billion people and makes up a sixth of the world’s population. Here are some ways in which it is also going to affect the world economy:

1. A lost year for India?
2. International restrictions
3. Pharma problems
4. Services not rendered

Read here (The Conversation, Apr 29, 2021)

Covid-19 in India—profits before people

...‘In the interim, in a uniquely cynical strategy, the Modi government has passed the buck on vaccination to the states, without providing any funding—indeed making them pay higher prices. It has agreed with the private producers a pricing system whereby state governments already desperately short of finances and facing hard budget constraints will have to pay up to four times what the central government pays for the same vaccines...

Disaster capitalism: ‘The latest sign of this active encouragement of disaster capitalism by the Indian state is even more egregious. In the proposed opening up of vaccination to the 18-45 age group from May 1st, access is to be limited to private hospitals and clinics, and only on payment—with prices ranging from ₹1,200 to ₹2,400 (€13.25-€26.5) per dose! Obviously, the poor will be unable to afford the vaccines, and so the pandemic will rage on, the massive human suffering will continue and countless lives will be lost.’

Read here (Social Europe, Apr 27, 2021)

Coronavirus set to scar world economy for decades amid an uneven, unequal recovery, observers say

‘All told, the decline in gross domestic product last year was the biggest since the Great Depression. The International Labour Organization estimates it cost the equivalent of 255 million people full-time jobs. Researchers at the Pew Research Centre reckon the global middle class shrank for the first time since the 1990s.

‘The costs will fall unevenly. A scorecard of 31 metrics across 162 nations devised by Oxford Economics Ltd. highlighted the Philippines, Peru, Colombia and Spain as the economies most vulnerable to long-term scarring. Australia, Japan, Norway, Germany and Switzerland were seen as best placed.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Apr 18, 2021)

The politics of stopping pandemics

‘As the world nervously watches the rollout of the various covid-19 vaccines and surveys the human and economic cost of the pandemic, this period of optimism is hard to imagine. Yet Hotez, a pediatrician and a specialist in tropical infectious diseases at Baylor College of Medicine who co-directs a vaccine-development center at the Texas Children’s Hospital, shows that pandemics had been rebounding well before the first covid-19 cases emerged in Wuhan. His book draws lessons from the field of tropical infectious diseases, and also from his international work as a science envoy—a position created jointly by the State Department and the White House—during Barack Obama’s Presidency. 

‘Hotez is perhaps uniquely positioned to expound a broad vision that marries science with geopolitics. (In the past year, he has been a prominent TV expert on the pandemic.) We learn not only about familiar scourges such as polio and diphtheria but also about a host of so-called neglected tropical diseases, including dengue, leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, and Chagas. He melds an account of their biology with documentation of the social and political factors that enable them to spread, and passionately insists that we cannot prevent pandemics in isolation from wider global currents. He identifies a cluster of non-medical drivers of deadly outbreaks—war, political instability, human migration, poverty, urbanization, anti-science and nationalist sentiment, and climate change—and maintains that advances in biomedicine must be accompanied by concerted action on these geopolitical matters.’

Read here (The New Yorker, Mar 29, 2021)

After a year of MCO, recovery is in sight

‘On March 18, 2020, the first Movement Control Order (MCO) was imposed and there was much uncertainty among the public and business community over what would happen next. One year on, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has taken 1,177 lives and infected 314,989 people in the country (as at March 10). Despite the grim circumstances, many see light at the end of the tunnel as Malaysia rolls out its National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (NCIP).

‘Speaking to experts, we identify three main areas that beckons attention — healthcare, economy and last but not least politics. Covid-19 is still raging on globally, and the challenge is to vaccinate the community as quickly as possible so as to not allow the more transmissible variants to get a foothold in the community. Meanwhile, vaccine effectiveness is seen as one key driver for economic recovery. When that has effectively been executed, the focus should be on repairing the damage that has been caused by the pandemic.

‘Many also believe that political stability is one challenge Malaysia will face. There is a need to exit from the emergency rule and for the country to be given a clear mandate from a stable government.

‘In the accompanying stories, we take a look at the winners and losers in the post-pandemic era. Will pandemic winners such as the glove and technology players continue to prosper? Will the tourism, retail, hospitality and manufacturing industries as well as small and medium enterprises move away from the dire conditions brought on by Covid-19 anytime soon?

‘Nonetheless, it has been a fruitful year for local equities since the pandemic outbreak, with healthcare and technology stocks being the top gainers. What can we expect for the rest of the year after stock prices for most sectors rebounded significantly from their lows last year? We speak to heads of research to find out what they think about the market direction.’ 

Get the full story in this week’s issue of The Edge Malaysia.

Read here (The Edge, Mar 13, 2021)

Coronavirus economic relief: Are we getting value for the money thrown at the pandemic? - Andrew Sheng

‘The US fiscal deficit rose from 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2019 to 17.5 per cent in 2020. This is an increase of 11.1 percentage points in GDP fiscal support to defend a decline of 5.8 percentage points in GDP growth...

‘The Biden administration is betting that the largest US stimulus package since World War II will restore American competitiveness and heal the nation. But much of this is not funded by domestic savings, such as taxing the rich, but by borrowing on the US dollar. 

‘The rest of the world will not fund the dollar forever, certainly not at near-zero interest rates. And if interest rates rise, the fiscal costs would be substantially higher. So bet on the Fed doing more to keep rates low. The truth of US debt is that it is not debt, but the rest of the world’s equity. America is the world’s too-big-to-fail borrower. If Biden fails, we will lose.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Mar 13, 2021)

Nobel prize economists Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spence call for vaccine equity and debt relief

‘Nobel Prize-winning economists Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spence are spearheading calls for urgent action to help poorer countries recover from the economic ravages of the coronavirus pandemic, including measures to advance vaccine equity, debt relief, and bolstering fiscal resources for cash-strapped nations.

‘The proposals were outlined in a new interim report released on Thursday – the one-year anniversary of the global pandemic – by the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s Commission on Global Economic Transformation, co-chaired by Stiglitz and Spence.‘

Read here (Aljazeera, Mar 11, 2021)\

The pandemic and the economic crisis: A global agenda for urgent action

Read full text here (Institute for New Economic Thinking, March, 2021)

Prioritise pandemic relief, recovery: No time for debt buybacks

‘Developing country governments are being wrongly advised to use their modest fiscal resources to pay down accumulated debt instead of strengthening pandemic relief and recovery. Thus, debt phobia risks deepening and extending COVID-19 recessions by prioritising buybacks...

‘With ‘collective action’ complications affecting negotiations, and the greater number and variety of heavily indebted countries and creditors, equitable debt buybacks are impossible to negotiate. Worse, prioritising buybacks means rejecting former debt hawk Reinhart’s current pragmatic advice to “First fight the war, then figure out how to pay for it”.

‘The urgent priority is for fiscal resources to strengthen relief, recovery and reform measures. Prioritising debt buybacks, instead of urgently augmenting fiscal resources, may thus contribute to another “lost decade” or worse.’

Read here (IPS News, March 9, 2021)

Lancet editor says inequality and Covid-19 have converged to create a ‘syndemic’

‘In his new book "The COVID-19 Catastrophe: What's Gone Wrong and How to Stop It Happening Again," Dr. Richard Horton does more than trace the history of the COVID-19 pandemic and explain how we should listen to scientific experts in confronting this global scourge.

‘He does this, of course, but Horton is more ambitious than that. As editor-in-chief of "The Lancet" — one of the world's oldest, most famous and most prestigious medical journals — Horton has overseen the publication of countless articles on a variety of medical subjects. Hence, one can sense in his book a desire to apply the full breadth of his knowledge and experience to this problem. His conclusion is both fascinating and extremely relevant, even urgent.

‘As Horton explains, the COVID-19 pandemic was unnecessarily worsened by deeper social problems, from economic policies that left millions upon millions of people especially vulnerable to Western governments who made political assumptions about the virus that proved to be gravely mistaken. Speaking with Salon, Horton discussed everything from President Donald Trump's failure to address the pandemic (as well as President Joe Biden's early successes) to an intriguing thought experiment on what would have happened if the governments the world could have simply paid people to stay home.’

Read here (Salon, Feb 6, 2021)

The worst of Malaysia's Covid-19 measures is yet to come: Sin Chew Daily columnist (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

‘According to the government, this is to prevent a full-fledged impact the lockdown will have on the country's economy. Finance minister Tengku Zafrul has said the first MCO imposed nationwide last year cost the country RM2.4 billion (S$787 million) a day, but only RM600 million a day this time. While allowing key economic sectors to operate as usual could help arrest the daily economic loss, there is nevertheless a hefty public health price to pay...

‘To break the infection chain, we cannot afford to take things for granted. If the government eventually decides to extend the current MCO, it must tighten the SOPs, even to the extent of locking down all economic activities, or we will stand to lose even more if MCO is extended over and again. The situation now is indeed alarming.

‘From infection clusters mostly linked to migrant workers, factories, shopping malls, prisons and detention centres, we now have new clusters emerging in workplaces and even medical centres. All this highlights the fact that the virus has not only penetrated our communities but is fast expanding its reach, and may soon come to you or your family members, colleagues and friends.’

Read here (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

Malaysia's worsening Covid-19 situation exposes serious economic, political fault lines

‘The darkening economic clouds for Malaysia will also have serious implications for the country's already troubled politics. Opposition politicians are keen to point out that Malaysians are starting to focus on the government's failures in dealing with the pandemic amid questions about Mr Muhyiddin's move to seek a declaration of a state of emergency.

"People and businesses need… a blanket moratorium on loans and perhaps a targeted movement control order. Certainly not the emergency," said Mr Ronnie Liu Tian Khiew, a senior politician from the opposition Democratic Action Party and elected assemblyman to the Selangor state government.

Read here (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

The inequality virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

‘The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade.

‘The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.’ 

Download PDF here (Oxfam, Jan 25, 2021)

The racism that undergirds global public health

‘With his thin volume (143 pages of text, with 46 pages of notes) Epidemic Illusions: On the Coloniality of Global Public Health, Eugene Richardson takes to task the discipline of epidemiology, and with it, global public health. Utilizing the West Africa Ebola epidemic of 2013-2016 as his canvas, Richardson paints a picture that highlights the racism that undergirds the conventional medical and public health perspectives.

‘Richardson is an infectious disease specialist and an anthropologist. He has extensive experience responding to health crises around the globe, including joining Partners in Health to care for those suffering from Ebola in Port Loko, Sierra Leone.’

Read here (Counterpunch, Jan 5, 2021)

Has Covid-19 killed Asia's growth miracle? Khor Hoe Ee

‘It was no fluke that the ASEAN+3 region emerged unscathed from the 2008 crisis. Sound macroeconomic fundamentals, as well as sizable fiscal and financial-sector buffers, enabled policymakers to lead the region out of the crisis quickly by adopting expansionary measures to boost domestic demand.

‘A similar response is needed today. Although the COVID-19 crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains and the economies that depend on them, pursuing a strategy of insourcing or localizing production would be devastating for the global economy.

‘Instead, overcoming supply-chain weaknesses requires enhancing globalization and economic integration, diversifying sources of supply to build resilience, and reforming and strengthening multilateral institutions and multinational forums. These measures will help to ensure that when the next global shock occurs, governments will be equipped to cooperate effectively and resist the lure of protectionism. That would be the best outcome for the global economy, and ASEAN+3 in particular.’

Read here (Japan Times, Jan 3, 2021)

The economic case for global vaccinations: An epidemiological model with international production networks

‘We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. 

‘Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.’

Download PDF here (NBER.org, January, 2021) 

From terrified to triumphant: How China flipped 2020

‘If your neighbor’s house is on fire, you should help them. In Jan/Feb, the US gleefully watched China burn and bragged about American exceptionalism. That’s when the US and the EU should have given generous aid to China to contain the pandemic. Then, from April on, western societies refused to learn anything from China. Filled with hubris and undeserved overconfidence, the West kept fumbling for months. Incompetent governments and irrational public couldn’t agree upon simple things like wearing masks or even if COVID-19 is real.

‘As the West imploded, China soared to the skies.

‘To put it succinctly, China had a stellar year. And with Trump’s loss, the U.S. is more polarized than ever before. By the time Biden’s administration gets its geopolitical strategy together, everyone from Asia to Europe would see the writing on the wall — that China will inevitably be the #1 economy soon. 2020 started out as a terrifying year, but ended up as the most pivotal year that sealed China’s unique status in the 21st century.’

Read here (World Affairs, Dec 31, 2020)

Covid-19 has shown us that good health is not just down to biology

‘Of all the lessons we’ve learned from this pandemic, the most significant is how unequal its effects have been. Wealth, it turns out, is the best shielding strategy from Covid-19. As poorer people crowded together in cramped housing, the rich escaped to their country retreats. Two of the largest risk factors for dying from Covid-19 are being from a deprived background and being from a minority-ethnic background, pointing to the underlying role of social inequalities, housing conditions and occupation.

\‘Our society’s recovery from this disease should be centred on building more equal, resilient societies, where people in all parts of the world have access to both protection from the disease and access to research developments. It all starts with government. At the end of a gruelling 11 months, I’m left with Abraham Lincoln’s words in my mind: the pandemic has shown that we need “government of the people, by the people, for the people” – not just government for the wealthy elite. Perhaps that’s the strongest legacy of Covid-19.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 25, 2020)