Nonstimulus arithmetic: Why the American Rescue Plan has to be big -- Krugman

‘We are not in a conventional recession — a decline in output due to insufficient aggregate demand. What we’re suffering from, instead, is a partial lockdown, the result of both public policy and private choices, that has sharply curtailed high-infection-risk activities, like indoor dining.

‘Pumping up overall spending with fiscal and monetary policy wouldn’t send diners back into restaurants, nor should it. So we aren’t experiencing a normal output gap, something that should be closed by stimulus. It’s actually not clear whether we even want employment and GDP to be higher before vaccination gives us herd immunity.

‘What, then, is the role of policy? As some of us have been arguing all along, it’s not stimulus, it’s disaster relief: an attempt to shore up the living standards of those hurt by the temporary lockdown, as well as providing resources to deal with the pandemic itself. Or as I recently argued, you can think of what we’re doing as being something like fighting a war — special expenditure in the face of an emergency.’

Read here (paulkrugman.substack, Feb 10, 2021)

A plague of willful ignorance

‘We aren’t a nation of know-nothings; many, probably most Americans are willing to listen to experts and act responsibly. But there’s a belligerent faction within our society that refuses to acknowledge inconvenient or uncomfortable facts, preferring to believe that experts are somehow conspiring against them... Trump hasn’t just failed to rise to the policy challenge posed by Covid-19. He has, with his words and actions — notably his refusal to wear a mask — encouraged and empowered America’s anti-rational streak.’

Read here (New York Times, June 22, 2020)

America fails the marshmallow test

Paul Krugman: ‘Why are we failing the test? It’s easy to blame Donald Trump, a man-child who would surely gobble down that first marshmallow, then try to steal marshmallows from other kids. But America’s impatience, its unwillingness to do what it takes to deal with a threat that can’t be beaten with threats of violence, runs much deeper than one man.’

Read here (New York Times, June 9, 2020)

Sympathy for the epidemiologists: Paul Krugman

‘...the White House probably likes IHME [University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation] less today than it did yesterday: the institute just drastically revised its projected death total upward, from 72,000 to 134,000. Documents obtained by The New York Times suggest that modelers within the U.S. government have also revised death projections sharply upward...

‘So let me give a shout-out to the hard-working, much-criticized epidemiologists trying to get this pandemic right. You may take a lot of abuse when you get it wrong, which you unavoidably will on occasion. But you’re doing what must be done. Also, welcome to my world.’

Read here (New York Times, May 5, 2020)

Give me liberty and give me death: Paul Krugman

‘…But Trump being Trump, he’s disavowing any responsibility, instead pressuring states to ignore the health risks and abandon the social distancing that has blunted the pandemic.

‘If you ask me, this isn’t just cruel, it’s politically stupid. As we’ve just seen, viruses move fast. A few days ago we were starting to see signs that Covid-19 might be peaking. But relax our vigilance, even a bit, and a second, bigger wave of deaths could easily happen well before the election.

‘But Trump and his allies don’t seem able to wrap their minds around the idea that it’s their job to solve problems, not shift the blame. And I don’t know about you, but I’m getting even more scared than I was.’

Read here (New York Times, April 21, 2020)

‘On cronies, cranks and the coronavirus’: Opinion piece by Paul Krugman

‘So where’s this [push to open up the economy quickly] coming from? I’ve seen some people portray it as a conflict between epidemiologists and economists, but that’s all wrong. No, this push to reopen is coming not from economists but from cranks and cronies. That is, it’s coming on one side from people who may describe themselves as economists but whom the professionals consider cranks...’

Read here (New York Times, April 14, 2020)

Paul Krugman: ‘We really are talking about a depression level event’

‘Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman tells Lawrence O’Donnell that Trump and his allies in Congress are “balking” at the things that need to be done to support parts of the economy that need the most help, like small businesses, hospitals and local governments: “We are at risk of turning this into even worse than it has to be… the administration is refusing to acknowledge the depth of the problem and is trying to pursue an ideological agenda that is getting in the way of dealing with this”.’

View here (MSNBC, Youtube, April 15, 2020)