Covid: From boom to bust - Why lockdown hasn't led to more babies

‘For those who thought that lockdown would leave couples with little else to do than procreate, there was a surprise - not a baby boom but a baby bust. Research shows that the US is facing the biggest slump in births in a century and in parts of Europe the decline is even steeper. For those who study population the baby bust was not a revelation. "Having seen how bad the pandemic was I'm not surprised," says Philip N Cohen, professor of sociology at the University of Maryland. "But it is still just shocking to see something like this happen in real time."

‘In June last year economists at the Brookings Institute in the United States estimated that US births would fall by 300,000 to half a million babies. At the same time a survey of fertility plans in Europe showed 50% of people in Germany and France who had planned to have a child in 2020 were going to postpone it. In Italy 37% said they had abandoned the idea altogether. A US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report indicates an 8% drop in births in the month of December.’

Read here (BBC, Mar 17, 2021)

Covid-19 death rates are lower worldwide, but no one is sure whether that’s a blip or a trend

‘The mortality rate of the coronavirus has been a moving target since the outbreak began. Early reports out of China put it as high as 7 percent. But that was based mostly on hospitalized patients, and by the time the wave hit the United States, epidemiologists believed it was closer to 2 to 3 percent. Now, factoring in asymptomatic infections, as well as mild cases that might not be part of official tallies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the mortality rate at 0.65 percent.

‘Public health officials cite multiple reasons for the lower death rates: They note a shift in the demographics of who is being stricken with the virus, with younger people making up the bulk of new infections. More widespread testing is capturing a more diverse range of people and illness, and improved treatment strategies that include antivirals and steroids are saving more lives. But some researchers speculate there may be more to the story...’

This story is behind a paywall.

Read here (Washington Post, Oct 9, 2020)

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of Covid-19 and other epidemics

‘With a hypothetical 1 million COVID-19 deaths [in the US], it is possible to portray the epidemic as unimaginably large—the biggest killer in American history—or small, reducing our remaining life [expectancy] by less than 1 part in 1,000. However, when the loss of life is put into comparative perspective, we see that the scale of an epidemic with 1 million deaths would be as large as that of the recent opioid and HIV crises but much smaller than that of the Spanish flu. The 1918 epidemic killed more people relative to population size, and it also caused a much greater loss of remaining life expectancy because those who died were so young.

‘As a society, we are and we should be making major and costly efforts to reduce mortality. The anticipated economic costs appear appropriate, or perhaps low, when compared to the statistical value of lives that may be saved.

‘The death toll of COVID-19 is a terrible thing, both for those who lose their lives and for their family, friends, colleagues, and all whom their lives touched. Those are real individuals, not the abstract statistics presented here. But the population perspective helps us to place this tragedy in a broader context. As we put our efforts into reducing the impact of the epidemic, it is important to know that we as a society have been through such mortality crises before.’

Read here (PNAS, Sept 8, 2020)