When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? McKinsey & Co update August 2021

‘This article updates our perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end to reflect the latest information on vaccine rollout, variants of concern, and disease progression. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. Our own analysis supports the view of others that the Delta variant has effectively moved overall herd immunity out of reach in most countries for the time being. The United Kingdom’s experience nevertheless suggests that once a country has weathered a wave of Delta-driven cases, it may be able to resume the transition toward normalcy. Beyond that, a more realistic epidemiological endpoint might arrive not when herd immunity is achieved but when COVID-19 can be managed as an endemic disease. The biggest overall risk would likely then be the emergence of a significant new variant.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, August 23, 2021)

A complete timeline of what’s going on with the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

‘AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical giant based in Cambridge, England, has little track record in vaccines, but it managed to score a coup by partnering with scientists at the University of Oxford’s Jenner Institute to help bring its COVID-19 vaccine to market. The company penned deals to deliver billions of vaccines around the world.

‘Yet, of the major vaccine in the global market, AstraZeneca's has had the roughest ride. Between halted trials, confusing data, and communication mishaps, the company is now facing suspended vaccinations and a decrease in trust in its vaccine.’

Read here (Fortune, Apr 2, 2021)

March 18, 2020 and beyond: One year with Covid-19 and life under lockdown in Malaysia

‘A year has passed since Malaysia first went into a partial lockdown after the Covid-19 pandemic hit. This saw the public forced into complying with numerous unprecedented measures introduced by the government to contain the virus’ spread. Here is a recap of some of the ups and downs that the nation has survived.’

Read here (Malay Mail, Mar 18, 2020)

Coronavirus crisis unlikely to be over by the end of the year, WHO warns

‘Despite the spread of Covid-19 being slowed in some countries due to lockdowns and vaccination programs, it is “premature” and “unrealistic” to the think the pandemic will be over by the end of the year, the World Health Organization’s executive director of emergency services has said.

‘Speaking at a press briefing Geneva, Dr Michael Ryan said while vaccinating the most vulnerable people, including healthcare workers, would help remove the “tragedy and fear” from the situation, and would help to ease pressure on hospitals, the “virus is very much in control”.’

Read here (The Guardian, Mar 2, 2021) 

The scientist who’s been right about Covid-19 vaccines predicts what’s next

‘[Hilda] Bastian — an expert in analyzing clinical trial data, founding member of the Cochrane Collaboration, and a former National Institutes of Health official — has gone down rabbit holes before. There was the time she traveled the US on her own dime to research and take historical photos for a Wikipedia list of African American mathematicians.

‘But her obsession with vaccines in this pandemic has been especially fruitful: She’s called the race right at just about every turn...

‘Nearly a year into her project, I caught up with Bastian to ask where our blind spots are now and how she predicts the vaccine story — and the pandemic — will unfold. She talked about the need for health officials to acknowledge that coronavirus vaccines have potentially “big differences in efficacy and adverse events,” a time in the future when we may need Covid-19 vaccine boosters every year, and the problem of people in rich countries like the US shamelessly hogging vaccines.’

Read here (Vox, Feb 24, 2021)

Coronavirus: Is the pandemic finally coming to an end in India?

‘By the middle of last week, India was barely counting an average of 10,000 Covid cases every day. The seven-day rolling average of daily deaths from the disease slid to below 100. More than half of India's states were not reporting any Covid deaths. On Tuesday, Delhi, once an infection hotspot, did not record a single Covid death, for the first time in 10 months.

‘So far, India has recorded more than 10 million infections - the second-highest in the world after the US. There have been over 150,000 reported deaths from the disease. The number of deaths per million people stands at 112, much lower than what has been reported in Europe or North America. It is also clear that the decline in cases is not because of lower testing.

‘Most pandemics typically rise and fall in a bell-shaped curve. India has been no exception. Also, it has seen a high proportion of cases and deaths of people above the age of 65 living in densely packed cities, hewing to infection trends around the world. "There's nothing unusual about infections dropping in India. There's no miracle here," says Dr Shahid Jameel, a leading virologist. Experts say there's no dearth of possible causes - explained below - for the relatively low severity of the disease and its toll.’

Read here (BBC, Feb 15, 2021)

Khairy: Registration for Covid-19 vaccination to start in March

‘Registration for Covid-19 vaccination to members of the public is expected to kick off in March and this will be on a volunteer basis, said Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin. 

He said there are five ways for the public to sign up for the vaccine, including via the MySejahtera application. “If they have no access to MySejahtera, they may go to the JKJAV (Covid-19 Vaccine Supply Access Guarantee Special Committee) website, which will be launched by the prime minister next week.

“In addition there is the hotline (number to be fixed later), manual registration at public and private clinics and hospitals, and lastly, for people living in the rural areas, we will be working with the state government to get them to register the recipients including senior citizens,” he said during the Ruang Bicara programme aired on Bernama TV, yesterday...

‘The first phase, from February to April, is for the 500,000 frontliners who are directly involved in the fight against Covid-19, while the second phase, from April to August, for the high-risk group, comprising senior citizens aged 60 and above and the vulnerable group with morbidity problems, such as heart disease, obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure, as well as persons with disabilities (PwD).

‘The third phase is from May to February next year and it is for those aged 18 and above.’

Read here (Malay Mail, Feb 12, 2021)

Dawn beckons as Covid vaccines roll out, but the next few months promise to be the darkest yet, and echoes of the AIDS era

‘One strange aspect of plagues is that they often finish strong. I learned this the hard way last time around. Many people have a general sense of AIDS being terrible in the 1980s and then slowly petering out in the 1990s, as treatments improved. It’s intuitive to think this way, and even to remember things this way. But, in reality, the worst ever year for deaths from AIDS in the US was 1995 — over a decade after the first deaths in America — and just before the arrival of the cocktail therapy that turned everything around. The virus killed more people in America in the year right before the medical breakthrough than in any other previous year.

‘...this [Covid] plague, like many others, could become worse yet before it suddenly turns the corner. The next couple of months may be the most fatal of the entire pandemic — even as freedom from this virus is within sight. There’s a special agony to those deaths, as there will be for all those human beings who will die of a virus for which a vaccine already exists.’

Read here (Genetic Literacy Project, Feb 8, 2021)

The mystery of India's plummeting Covid-19 cases

‘Last September, India was confirming nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day. It was on track to overtake the United States to become the country with the highest reported COVID-19 caseload in the world. Hospitals were full. The Indian economy nosedived into an unprecedented recession.

‘But four months later, India's coronavirus numbers have plummeted. Late last month, on Jan. 26, the country's Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases — in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. It was India's lowest daily tally in eight months. On Monday, India confirmed about 11,000 cases.

"It's not that India is testing less or things are going underreported," says Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University. "It's been rising, rising — and now suddenly, it's vanished! I mean, hospital ICU utilization has gone down. Every indicator says the numbers are down." Scientists say it's a mystery. They're probing why India's coronavirus numbers have declined so dramatically — and so suddenly, in September and October, months before any vaccinations began.

‘They're trying to figure out what Indians may be doing right and how to mimic that in other countries that are still suffering.’

Read here (NPR, Feb 1, 2021)

More than 85 poor countries will not have widespread access to coronavirus vaccines before 2023

• The rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus (Covid-19) has started in developed countries, but mass immunisation will take time. 
• Production represents the main hurdle, as many developed countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need. 
• The costs associated with mass immunisation programmes will be significant, especially for less-developed countries that have limited fiscal resources. 
• Vaccine diplomacy will play a role in determining which countries get access to a vaccine in the coming months. 
• Russia and China will use the rollout of their own coronavirus shots to advance their interests. 
• With priority groups vaccinated in rich economies by end-March, The EIU expects global economic prospects to brighten from mid-2021. 
• For most middle-income countries, including China and India, the vaccination timeline will stretch to late 2022. 
• In poorer economies, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved before 2023, if at all.

Read here (The Economist, Jan 27, 2021)

Covid-19: Five days that shaped the outbreak

‘A year ago, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan. For weeks beforehand officials had maintained that the outbreak was under control - just a few dozen cases linked to a live animal market. But in fact the virus had been spreading throughout the city and around China. This is the story of five critical days early in the outbreak.’

Read here (BBC, Jan 26, 2021)

Covid-19 pandemic could last 4 to 5 years: Lawrence Wong

‘It may take four to five years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends and the world can look to a "post-COVID normal", said Education Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (Jan 25). "At some point in time the pandemic will pass, but it may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal. What will this new post-COVID world look like? No one can tell," he said. Mr Wong, who co-chairs the COVID-19 multi-ministry taskforce, was speaking at the Singapore Perspectives 2021 conference hosted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Jan 25, 2021)

When will the pandemic end? (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

‘This article updates our earlier perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end. Transition toward normalcy in the United States remains most likely in the second quarter of 2021 and herd immunity in the third and fourth quarters, but the emergence of new strains and a slow start to vaccine rollout raise real risks to both timelines. We also add a perspective for the United Kingdom...

Transition toward normalcy

‘A transition toward normalcy will occur when COVID-19 mortality falls and the disease is de-exceptionalized in society. COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition, but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response. During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use in many settings), but mortality will fall significantly, allowing greater normalization of business and social activities. This will be driven by a combination of early vaccine rollout (which, being directed first at those at greatest risk, should reduce deaths faster than cases), seasonality, increasing natural immunity, and stronger public-health response.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

Khairy: If you’re a healthy Malaysian under 60 and not a frontliner, expect to be vaccinated only by Q3 2021 or even later

‘Malaysians who are not active frontliners, below the age of 60 and in relatively good health can expect to receive their dose of Covid-19 vaccinations only by the third-quarter of this year or later, the science, technology and innovation minister revealed today. Khairy Jamaluddin, also the Special Committee on Ensuring Access to Covid-19 Vaccine Supply (JKJAV) co-chair, said this is because the first batch of vaccines to arrive will be prioritised to inoculate those within vulnerable groups. 

“Frontline workers from the healthcare and security sectors will go first. Then senior citizens and people with chronic illnesses. Only then we will move on to the general population in order to get to a meaningful herd immunity threshold.’

Read here (The Malay Mail, Jan 14, 2021)

Khairy explains Malaysia's vaccine procurement process, delivery schedule (full text)

‘As two of Malaysia's closest neighbours, Singapore and Indonesia, kicked off their vaccination programmes, Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin wrote a blog post to give an update on what Malaysia's vaccine procurement process is like — why it is not slow in getting its vaccines — and the delivery schedule that Malaysians can expect. Khairy is also the co-chair of the Special Committee on Ensuring Access To Covid-19 Vaccine Supply.’

Read here (The Edge, Jan 14, 2021)

Covid-19 herd immunity unlikely in 2021 despite vaccines: UN

‘The World Health Organization’s chief scientist warned that even as numerous countries start rolling out vaccination programs to stop COVID-19, herd immunity is highly unlikely this year.

‘At a media briefing on Monday (Jan 11), Dr Soumya Swaminathan said it was critical countries and their populations maintain strict social distancing and other outbreak control measures for the foreseeable future. In recent weeks, Britain, the US, France, Canada, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands and others have begun vaccinating millions of their citizens against the coronavirus.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Jan 12, 2021)

IHME projects 5,000 daily Covid-19 cases in Malaysia end-Feb

‘Malaysia is projected to experience a continuous rise in Covid-19 cases until mid-March 2021, hitting over 5,000 infections daily on February 25, according to US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

‘The IHME model, which is also used by the Trump administration, predicted 2,987 new coronavirus cases in Malaysia on January 1, increasing to 4,176 Covid-19 infections on February 1, and 5,130 cases on March 1. The trend is projected to rise until March 21 with 5,379 infections that day, and then declining to 5,301 cases on April 1.’

Read here (Code Blue, Dec 11, 2020)

Coronavirus: How can we imagine the scale of Covid's death toll?

‘The suffering from the coronavirus pandemic has come to define 2020. But how do you grasp the immense scale of loss? Flowers - symbols of grief, peace, and love - serve as a tribute to those who have died.

‘Imagine the pandemic as a  flower. In the animation below, the stem grows as Covid-19 cases increase over time and the petals unfurl as more people die with the disease.’

View here (BBC, Dec 7, 2020)

US Covid cases found as early as December 2019, says study

‘Testing has found Covid-19 infections in the U.S. in December 2019, according to a study, providing further evidence indicating the coronavirus was spreading globally weeks before the first cases were reported in China.

‘The study published Monday identified 106 infections from 7,389 blood samples collected from donors in nine U.S. states between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17. The samples, collected by the American Red Cross, were sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing to detect if there were antibodies against the virus...

‘The revelations in the paper by researchers from the CDC reinforce the growing understanding that the coronavirus was silently circulating worldwide earlier than known, and could re-ignite debate over the origins of the pandemic.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Dec 1, 2020)

WHO to look at controversial Italian samples in search for origins

‘The World Health Organization is looking into controversial research suggesting the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 was circulating in Italy months before it was first detected in China, the health body said on Friday, while cautioning against using such data to speculate about the disease’s origins.

‘The WHO plans to run tests with the Italian researchers who made waves earlier this month for their peer-reviewed findings based on tests of blood samples from a cancer screening carried out starting before the pathogen was detected in China.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Nov 27, 2020)