Lab leak: A scientific debate mired in politics — and unresolved

‘More than a year into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, some scientists say the possibility of a lab leak never got a fair look...

‘As it stands now, pandemic preparedness faces two simultaneous fronts. On the one hand, the world has experienced numerous pandemic and epidemic outbreaks in the last 20 years, including SARS, chikungunya, H1N1, Middle East Respiratory virus, several Ebola outbreaks, three outbreaks of norovirus, Zika, and now SARS-CoV-2. Speaking of coronaviruses, says Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, “it’s hard to imagine there aren’t variants” in bats with mortality rates approaching MERS’ 30 percent that also have “a transmissibility that is much more efficient. And that is terrifying.” Baric is emphatic that genetic research with viruses is essential to staying ahead of the threat.

‘Yet according to Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, lab-release dangers are growing as well. The risk increases in proportion with the number of labs handling bioweapons and potential pandemic pathogens (more than 1,500 globally in 2010), he says, many of them, like the Wuhan lab, located in urban areas close to international airports. “The most dramatic expansion has occurred in China during the last four years — driven as an arms-race-style reaction to biodefense expansion in the U.S., Europe, and Japan,” Ebright wrote in an email to Undark. “China opened two new BSL-4 facilities, in Wuhan and in Harbin, in the last four years,” he added, “and has announced plans to establish a network of hundreds of new BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs.”

Read here (Undark, Mar 17, 2021)

The next pandemic? It may already be upon us

‘Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) won’t race across the world like Covid-19, but its effects will be devastating. Thankfully, we already know what we need to do to defeat it...

‘Reining in the inappropriate use of antibiotics, in humans and in farmed animals, is key to staying ahead of AMR, but we also need novel anti-infectives coming down the pipeline – new last resorts. The thing holding up that pipeline to date has been the same thing that meant we had no coronavirus vaccines at the start of this pandemic: the economic incentives are few. Because antibiotics tend to be needed in relatively small quantities at a time, there are no economies of scale to be had either.

‘That’s the bad news; now for the good. Efforts are afoot to stimulate the development of novel anti-infectives. Outterson is the founder and executive director of CARB-X, which is funded by the British and German governments, the Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and several arms of the US government, and which promotes the early stages of R&D – technically, the preclinical and phase 1 clinical phases. Meanwhile, last July the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations launched a $1bn initiative, the AMR Action Fund, to finance the much more expensive phase 2 and 3 clinical trials that bring a drug – the few that get that far – to the threshold of regulatory approval. And the UK is experimenting with a new subscription-style payment model that pays drug companies upfront for access to novel antibiotics, so decoupling profit from volume sold.’

Read here (The Guardian, Feb 15, 2021)

More or less deadly? Which way is SARS-CoV-2 evolving?

‘Like plague, Covid-19 is a stealth infection, and that might ultimately slow evolution toward lower virulence. Yersinia pestis, the germ that causes plague, tamps down the early immune response, so that infected people can travel and spread infection for days before they feel sick. Similarly, people infected with SARS-CoV-2 seem capable of infecting others before experiencing any symptoms. This sly mode of viral spread may make the evolution of lower virulence less likely, as infected but asymptomatic people are the perfect mobile viral delivery systems.

‘Yet even without an evolutionary process pushing SARS-CoV-2 towards lower virulence, over time, the virus might affect people differently, said Columbia University virologist Vincent Racaniello. “SARS-CoV-2 may become less deadly, not because the virus changes, but because very few people will have no immunity,” he said. In other words, if you’re exposed to the virus as a child (when it doesn’t seem to make people particularly sick) and then again and again in adulthood, you’ll only get a mild infection. Racaniello points out that the four circulating common cold coronaviruses “all came into humans from animal hosts, and they may have been initially quite virulent.” Now, he says, they infect 90 percent of children at young ages. At later ages, all you get is the common cold.’

Read here (Genetic Literacy Project, Jan 7, 2021)

The next pandemic is already on the horizon... But experience can help

"We have to remember why (Covid-19) was detected when it was," Dr Josie Golding, epidemics lead at global health research funder Wellcome, said. "It was because there was experience in (China) from Sars and from avian influenza, there were systems in place to detect strange pneumonia coming up."

‘Dr Golding added: "Covid-19 is going to put a lot of those systems and experience in countries… The countries who dealt with it better and faster at the beginning were the ones who had that historical knowledge. I think that is going to make a big difference when it comes to the next Disease X."

Read here (Straits Times, Dec 31, 2020) 

After coronavirus: Our relationship with meat and the next pandemic

‘All pandemics in recorded human history have come via the animal kingdom. With mutations abounding and our interaction with wildlife widening, when are we finally going to address the sick animal in the room?...

‘To be precise, three out of four of those "new diseases" come from animals, and the frequency with which they have emerged has been accelerating for over 40 years... [Delia] Randolph was the lead author of a joint International Livestock Research Institute and UNEP report published in July looking into the reasons for this acceleration. Research from dozens of scientists spanning the globe came to one conclusion: human behaviour, i.e., the way we interact with and consume animals, is the main driver increasing the prevalence of zoonotic disease. 

‘The report lists seven "human-mediated factors" behind the emergence, with numbers one through three as follows: 1) increasing human demand for animal protein, 2) unsustainable agricultural intensification, 3) increased use and exploitation of wildlife.’

Read here (DW, Nov 20, 2020)

How Biden plans to change the US pandemic response

‘President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris say they will move the US Covid-19 pandemic response in a dramatically different direction... Here are five ways Biden says the US coronavirus response will change when he's President. (1) Increased testing and contact tracing. (2) Additional investment in vaccines and treatments. (3) Mandatory masks and more PPE. (4) A push for 'clear, consistent, evidence-based guidance'. (5) Rejoining WHO and searching for future threats.

‘There were dauntingly high new case numbers last week, and by the time Biden takes office January 20, the influential University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation model projects there will be more than 372,000 Covid-19 deaths -- that's 135,000 more than the current total...’

Read here (CNN, Nov 9, 2020)

China seeks to flip the script on Covid blame game

‘Chinese state media is advancing a possible alternative explanation for the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic, one that claims that the contagion may have first arrived in China from abroad in imported frozen foods. Chinese officials quoted in the reports suggest  “cold chain food contamination” could debunk the widely held belief that the novel coronavirus first emerged from a wet market in the Chinese city of Wuhan, from where it reputedly made its lethal global spread.’  

Read here (Asia Times, Nov 4, 2020) 

The wisdom of pandemics

‘Viruses are active agents, existing within rich lifeworlds. A safe future depends on understanding this evolutionary story...

‘Researchers since then have uncovered evidence that pathogens exert ‘the strongest selective pressure to drive the evolution of modern humans’. Among the drivers, look to evidence that prehistoric pandemics played a role in selecting for ancestral traits and behaviours that we recognise as human today. Scientists following another thread in this evolutionary narrative describe viral nucleic acids insinuating themselves into our genetic codes. The biologist David Enard at Stanford University in California and colleagues have concluded that ‘viruses are one of the most dominant drivers of evolutionary change across mammalian and human proteomes’...

‘As we become more deft at exploring the nested, dynamically complex relationships among viruses, bacteria, fungi and ourselves, we’ll come closer to grasping how pandemics emerge from a rupturing and rearranging of these relationships. From this deep linking of Aion with Chronos, we can already see the outlines of the wisdom that pandemics offer us. What we’re beginning to faintly understand is this: if we wish to survive as a species, we must gather all of our knowledge from multiple perspectives – however fragmented and partial – and actively engage in conversations with the world we inhabit and that gives us life. Only then will we begin to understand ourselves, and live up to our name, the wise ones, Homo sapiens sapiens.’

Read here (Aeon, Nov 3, 2020)

China's battle against Covid-19

‘A moving 30-minute feature film [released on the Martin Jacques Youtube channel] about how China fought Covid-19. Mainly filmed in Wuhan, it captures the agony of the city and the heroic efforts of the healthcare workers, both those from Wuhan and those who came from all over to China as volunteers to offer their support.’

View here (Martin Jacques, Oct 25, 2020)

When will Covid-19 end? History suggests diseases fade but are never truly gone

‘Whether bacterial, viral or parasitic, virtually every disease pathogen that has affected people over the last several thousand years is still with us, because it is nearly impossible to fully eradicate them. The only disease that has been eradicated through vaccination is smallpox. Mass vaccination campaigns led by the World Health Organization in the 1960s and 1970s were successful, and in 1980, smallpox was declared the first – and still, the only – human disease to be fully eradicated. So success stories like smallpox are exceptional. It is rather the rule that diseases come to stay.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Oct 17, 2020)

Covid-19 pandemic – Philosophical approaches: Abstract

‘The paper begins with a retrospective of the debates on the origin of life: the virus or the cell? The virus needs a cell for replication, instead the cell is a more evolved form on the evolutionary scale of life. In addition, the study of viruses raises pressing conceptual and philosophical questions about their nature, their classification, and their place in the biological world. 

‘The subject of pandemics is approached starting from the existentialism of Albert Camus and Sartre, the replacement of the exclusion ritual with the disciplinary mechanism of Michel Foucault, and about the Gaia hypothesis, developed by James Lovelock and supported in the current pandemic by Bruno Latour. The social dimensions of pandemics, their connection to global warming, which has led to an increase in infectious diseases, and the deforestation of large areas, which have caused viruses to migrate from their native area (their "reservoir") are highlighted below. The ethics of pandemics is approached from several philosophical points of view, of which the most important in a crisis of such global dimensions is utilitarianism which involves maximizing benefits for society in direct conflict with the usual (Kantian) view of respect for people as individuals. 

‘After a retrospective of the COVID-19 virus that caused the current pandemic, its life cycle and its history, with an emphasis on the philosophy of death, the concept of biopower initially developed by Foucault is discussed, with reference to the practice of modern states of control of the populations and the debate generated by Giorgio Agamben who states that what is manifested in this pandemic is the growing tendency to use the state of emergency as a normal paradigm of government. An interesting and much debated approach is the one generated by the works of Slavoj Žižek, who states that the current pandemic has led to the bankruptcy of the current "barbaric" capitalism, wondering if the path that humanity will take is a neo-communism.  Another important negative effect is desocialization, with the conclusion of some philosophers that we cannot exist independently of our relationships with others, that a person's humanity depends on the humanity of those around him. 

‘The last section is dedicated to forecasting what the world will look like after the pandemic, and there are already signs of a change of paradigm, including the sudden disappearance of the ideology of the "wall": a cough was enough to make it suddenly impossible to avoid the responsibility that every individual has towards all living beings for the simple fact that he is part of this world, and of the desire to be part of it. The whole is always involved in part, because everything is, in a sense, in everything, and in nature there are no autonomous regions that are an exception.

‘The COVID-19 pandemic seems to restore the supremacy that once belonged to politics. One of the virtues of the virus is its ability to generate a more sober idea of freedom: to be free means to do what needs to be done in a specific situation.’

Read here (Academia.edu, Oct 14, 2020)

Pope says capitalism failed humanity during coronavirus pandemic

“The fragility of world systems in the face of the pandemic has demonstrated that not everything can be resolved by market freedom... It is imperative to have a proactive economic policy directed at ‘promoting an economy that favors productive diversity and business creativity’ and makes it possible for jobs to be created, not cut.” The pope also restated the past calls for the redistribution of wealth, saying those with much should “administer it for the good of all.” But he clarified that he was “not proposing an authoritarian and abstract universalism.”

Read here (DW, Oct 4, 2020)

How three prior pandemics triggered massive societal shifts

‘None of this is to argue that the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will have similarly earth-shattering outcomes. The mortality rate of COVID-19 is nothing like that of the plagues discussed above, and therefore the consequences may not be as seismic. But there are some indications that they could be... 

‘Will the bumbling efforts of the open societies of the West to come to grips with the virus shattering already-wavering faith in liberal democracy, creating a space for other ideologies to evolve and metastasize? In a similar fashion, COVID-19 may be accelerating an already ongoing geopolitical shift in the balance of power between the U.S. and China... Finally, COVID-19 seems to be accelerating the unraveling of long-established patterns and practices of work, with repercussions that could affect the future of office towers, big cities and mass transit, to name just a few. The implications of this and related economic developments may prove as profoundly transformative as those triggered by the Black Death in 1347.’

Read here (The Conversation, Oct 1, 2020)

A world in disorder

On September 14th 2020, the GPMB released its second report titled, A World in Disorder. In this report, the GPMB provides a harsh assessment of the global COVID-19 response, warning that the world cannot afford to be unprepared again when the next pandemic hits. The Board called for five urgent actions to be taken to bring order out of the catastrophe and chaos currently facing the world: responsible leadership; engaged citizenship; strong and agile systems for health security; sustained investment; and robust global governance of preparedness.

The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) is an independent monitoring and accountability body to ensure preparedness for global health crises. Comprised of political leaders, agency principals and world-class experts, the Board provides an independent and comprehensive appraisal for policy makers and the world about progress towards increased preparedness and response capacity for disease outbreaks and other emergencies with health consequences. In short, the work of the GPMB will be to chart a roadmap for a safer world.

Download here (Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, Sept 14, 2020)

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of Covid-19 and other epidemics

‘With a hypothetical 1 million COVID-19 deaths [in the US], it is possible to portray the epidemic as unimaginably large—the biggest killer in American history—or small, reducing our remaining life [expectancy] by less than 1 part in 1,000. However, when the loss of life is put into comparative perspective, we see that the scale of an epidemic with 1 million deaths would be as large as that of the recent opioid and HIV crises but much smaller than that of the Spanish flu. The 1918 epidemic killed more people relative to population size, and it also caused a much greater loss of remaining life expectancy because those who died were so young.

‘As a society, we are and we should be making major and costly efforts to reduce mortality. The anticipated economic costs appear appropriate, or perhaps low, when compared to the statistical value of lives that may be saved.

‘The death toll of COVID-19 is a terrible thing, both for those who lose their lives and for their family, friends, colleagues, and all whom their lives touched. Those are real individuals, not the abstract statistics presented here. But the population perspective helps us to place this tragedy in a broader context. As we put our efforts into reducing the impact of the epidemic, it is important to know that we as a society have been through such mortality crises before.’

Read here (PNAS, Sept 8, 2020)

WHO chief hopes coronavirus pandemic will last less than two years

‘The World Health Organization hopes the coronavirus pandemic will be shorter than the 1918 Spanish flu and last less than two years, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday, if the world unites and succeeds in finding a vaccine... Tedros said the 1918 Spanish flu “took two years to stop”... ...we have a disadvantage of globalisation, closeness, connectedness but an advantage of better technology.‘

Read here (Reuters, August 22, 2020)

How China controlled the coronavirus: From the micro point of view of an American teaching and learning in Sichuan during the pandemic

‘Despite the political indoctrination involved in Chinese schooling, the system teaches people to respect science. Hard work is another core value, and somehow society has become more prosperous without losing its edge. Nearly a quarter century ago, I taught young people who were driven by the desire to escape poverty; these days, my middle-class students seem to work at least as hard, because of the extreme competitiveness of their environment. Such qualities are perfect for fighting the pandemic, at least when channelled effectively by government structures. In comparison, the American response often appears passive—even enlightened citizens seem to believe that obeying lockdown orders and wearing masks in public is enough. But any attempt to control the virus requires active, organized effort, and there needs to be strong institutional direction.

‘Instead, the flailing American leadership seems more interested in finding scapegoats, sometimes with a racial tinge—the Kung Flu and the China Virus. Throughout the spring, the Chinese government periodically responded by lashing out at the U.S. and other foreign countries, but such tensions had little impact on my life in Chengdu. Daily interactions remained friendly, and people often made a point of telling me that the problems between governments had nothing to do with our personal relationships.’

Read here (The New Yorker, August 17, 2020)

Fearing a 'Twindemic', health experts push urgently for flu shots

‘As public health officials look to fall and winter, the spectre of a new surge of Covid-19 gives them chills. But there is a scenario they dread even more: a severe flu season, resulting in a "twindemic"... The concern about a twindemic is so great that officials around the world are pushing the flu shot even before it becomes available in clinics and doctors' offices... Dr Robert Redfield, director of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, has been talking it up, urging corporate leaders to figure out ways to inoculate employees. The CDC usually purchases 500,000 doses for uninsured adults but this year ordered an additional 9.3 million doses.’

Read here (Straits Times, August 17, 2020) 

How the pandemic revealed Britain’s national illness

‘Much of the focus has been on Johnson: an apparent manifestation of all that has gone wrong in Britain, a caricature of imperial nostalgia, Trumpian populism, and a general lack of seriousness. Yet this was not simply an issue of inept political leadership, inept or otherwise: Johnson stuck closely to a strategy designed and endorsed by the government’s experts, leaders in their fields and respected internationally. Even if the prime minister did make serious mistakes, the country’s issues run far deeper. The British government as a whole made poorer decisions, based on poorer advice, founded on poorer evidence, supplied by poorer testing, with the inevitable consequence that it achieved poorer results than almost any of its peers. It failed in its preparation, its diagnosis, and its treatment...

‘As prime minister, Johnson must accept that Britain’s failures are his as well. Still, the difficult truth is that the country’s failures clearly go beyond Johnson. They were collective, multilayered, and deadly. The most difficult question about all this is also the simplest: Why?... What emerges is a picture of a country whose systemic weaknesses were exposed with appalling brutality, a country that believed it was stronger than it was, and that paid the price for failures that have built up for years.’

Read here (The Atlantic, August 12, 2020)

Nine important things we’ve learned about the coronavirus pandemic so far

Here are nine of the most important things we’ve learned about SARS-CoV-2 in the past seven months and why we didn’t fully understand or appreciate them at first.

1. Outbreaks of COVID-19 can happen anywhere
2. COVID-19 can sicken and kill anyone
3. Contaminated surfaces are not the main danger
4. It is in the air
5. Many people are infectious without being sick
6. Warm summer weather will not stop the virus
7. Masks work
8. Racism, not race, is a risk factor
9. Misinformation kills

Read here (Scientific American, August 4, 2020)