New study supports natural origins of Covid-19, sources close to WHO team say

‘The virus that causes COVID-19 likely jumped from animals to humans at the Huanan wet market in Wuhan, China, according to a landmark new analysis by evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey published in the journal Science. Worobey’s article is another nail in the coffin of the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory, concocted by the fascist ideologue Stephen K. Bannon and promoted by the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal.

“It is yet another piece of data that points to the so-called ‘natural’ origin in the wildlife farms and market system,” said a source close to an earlier WHO-China joint study on the origins of COVID-19.’

Read here (Defend Democracy Press, Nov 20, 2021)

Dissecting the early Covid-19 cases in Wuhan: Michael Worobey

‘With SARS, live-animal markets continued to sell infected animals for many months, allowing zoonotic spillover to be established as the origin and revealing multiple independent jumps from animals into humans. Unfortunately, no live mammal collected at Huanan Market or any other live-animal market in Wuhan has been screened for SARS-CoV-2–related viruses, and Huanan Market was closed and disinfected on 1 January 2020. Nevertheless, that most early symptomatic cases were linked to Huanan Market—specifically to the western section where raccoon dogs were caged—provides strong evidence of a live-animal market origin of the pandemic.

‘This would explain the extraordinary preponderance of early COVID-19 cases at one of the handful of sites in Wuhan—population 11 million—that sell some of the same animals that brought us SARS. Although it may never be possible to recover related viruses from animals if they were not sampled at the time of emergence, conclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort.’

Read here (Science, Nov 16, 2021)

Investigate the origins of Covid-19: ‘Take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously’

‘As scientists with relevant expertise, we agree with the WHO director-general, the United States and 13 other countries, and the European Union that greater clarity about the origins of this pandemic is necessary and feasible to achieve. We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data. A proper investigation should be transparent, objective, data-driven, inclusive of broad expertise, subject to independent oversight, and responsibly managed to minimize the impact of conflicts of interest. Public health agencies and research laboratories alike need to open their records to the public. Investigators should document the veracity and provenance of data from which analyses are conducted and conclusions drawn, so that analyses are reproducible by independent experts.’

Read here (Science, May 14, 2021)

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against Covid-19

‘Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.’

Read here (Science magazine, Feb 19, 2021) 

Fast-spreading UK virus variant raises alarms

‘The U.K. lineage of SARS-CoV-2 has apparently acquired 17 mutations that lead to amino acid changes in its proteins all at once, a feat never seen before in the coronavirus. Crucially, eight of them were in the gene that encodes spike, a protein on the viral surface that the pathogen uses to enter human cells. “There's now a frantic push to try and characterize some of these mutations in the lab,” says Andrew Rambaut, a molecular evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh... Read the story for more details.’

Read here (Science magazine, Jan 1, 2021)

Suspicions grow that nanoparticles in Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trigger rare allergic reactions

‘Severe allergy-like reactions in at least eight people who received the COVID-19 vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech over the past 2 weeks may be due to a compound in the packaging of the messenger RNA (mRNA) that forms the vaccine’s main ingredient, scientists say. A similar mRNA vaccine developed by Moderna, which was authorized for emergency use in the United States on Friday, also contains the compound, polyethylene glycol (PEG).

‘PEG has never been used before in an approved vaccine, but it is found in many drugs that have occasionally triggered anaphylaxis—a potentially life-threatening reaction that can cause rashes, a plummeting blood pressure, shortness of breath, and a fast heartbeat. Some allergists and immunologists believe a small number of people previously exposed to PEG may have high levels of antibodies against PEG, putting them at risk of an anaphylactic reaction to the vaccine.’

Read here (Science magazine, Dec 21, 2020)

Public needs to prep for vaccine side effects

‘This summer, computational biologist Luke Hutchison volunteered for a trial of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. But after the second injection, his arm swelled up to the size of a “goose egg,” Hutchison says. He can't be sure he got the vaccine and not a placebo, but within a few hours, Hutchison, who was healthy and 43, was beset by bone and muscle aches and a 38.9°C fever. “I started shaking. I had cold and hot rushes,” he says. “I was sitting by the phone all night long thinking: ‘Should I call 911?’”

‘Hutchison's symptoms resolved after 12 hours. But, he says, “Nobody prepared me for the severity of this.” He says the public should be better prepared than he was, because a subset of people may face intense, if transient, side effects, called reactogenicity, from Moderna's vaccine. Some health experts agree.’

Read here (Science, Nov 27, 2020) 

New test detects coronavirus in just 5 minutes

‘Researchers have used CRISPR gene-editing technology to come up with a test that detects the pandemic coronavirus in just 5 minutes. The diagnostic doesn’t require expensive lab equipment to run and could potentially be deployed at doctor’s offices, schools, and office buildings. “It looks like they have a really rock-solid test,” says Max Wilson, a molecular biologist at the University of California (UC), Santa Barbara. “It’s really quite elegant.”

Read here (Science, Oct 8, 2020)

Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh study: (1) 8% of the detected Covid-19 cases accounted for 60% of the transmission (2) Transmission among individuals of approximately the same age was highest among children under 15 years old and adults 65 years and older

‘A study published in Science analyzed surveillance and contact tracing data from two South Indian states, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, collected through August 1. This is one of the few studies that captures the epidemiology of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries on a large scale. Together, these states account for approximately 10% (127.8 million) of India’s national population, and they contain the most robust healthcare workforces and public health infrastructure in the country. The study provides a detailed look at the timeline and growth of the COVID-19 epidemics in these states, including incidence and mortality.

‘The researchers found that the majority of cases (71%) did not result in secondary transmission to any of their contacts identified through contact tracing efforts. Based on data collected from more than 600,000 cases and contacts, the researchers estimate that 8% of the detected COVID-19 cases accounted for 60% of the transmission, providing further evidence that super-spreading events play a major role in the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers also identified that transmission among individuals of approximately the same age was highest among children under 15 years old and adults 65 years and older. While the researchers were not able to determine the degree of transmission from children to adults, the study results support that pediatric cases do play a role in the ongoing pandemic. Overall, the case fatality ratio was 2.06%, and generally increased with age; however, unlike the US, mortality tended to plateau rather than increase in individuals 75 years and older. The reasons for this trend are uncertain. Additionally, the median hospital admission time before death was 6 days.’

Read here (John Hopkins Newsletter, Science, Sept 30, 2020)

School openings across globe suggest ways to keep coronavirus at bay, despite outbreaks

“Outbreaks in schools are inevitable,” says Otto Helve, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. “But there is good news.” So far, with some changes to schools’ daily routines, he says, the benefits of attending school seem to outweigh the risks—at least where community infection rates are low and officials are standing by to identify and isolate cases and close contacts.

This article discusses the following:

• How likely are children to catch and transmit the virus?
• Should children play together?
• Should kids wear masks?
• What should schools do when someone tests positive?
• Do schools spread the virus to the wider community?
• What lies ahead?

Read here (Science Magazine, July 7, 2020)

Persuasive words are not enough

‘The scientific community is losing the battle against this digital leviathan of misinformation. A well-reasoned and highly placed op-ed on this topic is not going to move the needle, no matter how well it is crafted to adhere to the best practices in science communication. Neither is a perfect trade book, television appearance, or speaking tour by a scientific leader. The only way to win this fight is to harness the same sophisticated tools in the name of science that are being used to tear science down.’

Read here (Science Magazine, June 26, 2020)

The pandemic's first major research scandal erupts

‘The controversy is an unfortunate distraction, says Miguel Hernán, a Harvard epidemiologist and co-investigator on an ongoing trial of hydroxychloroquine in Spain and Latin America. “If you do something as inflammatory as this without a solid foundation, you are going to make a lot of people waste time trying to understand what is going on.” Chaccour says both NEJM and The Lancet should have scrutinized the provenance of Surgisphere's data more closely before publishing the studies. “Here we are in the middle of a pandemic with hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the two most prestigious medical journals have failed us,” he says.’

Read here (Science Magazine, June 5, 2020)

US ‘Warp Speed’ vaccine effort comes out of the shadows

‘Conventional wisdom is that a vaccine for COVID-19 is at least 1 year away, but the organizers of a U.S. government push called Operation Warp Speed have little use for conventional wisdom. The project, vaguely described to date but likely to be formally announced by the White House in the coming days, will pick a diverse set of vaccine candidates and pour essentially limitless resources into unprecedented comparative studies in animals, fast-tracked human trials, and manufacturing. Eschewing international cooperation—and any vaccine candidates from China—it hopes to have 300 million doses by January 2021 of a proven product, reserved for Americans.’

Read here (Science Magazine, May 15, 2020)

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19

‘Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.’

Read here (Science, May 8, 2020)