Beware the fifth wave of Covid-19 — Amar-Singh HSS

‘On 8th May 2021 I wrote about how to “Avoid a Covid-19 Disaster in Malaysia”. This crisis has washed over us and the toll in deaths and loss of livelihood has been and continues to be significant. I am now writing about the impending, massive fifth wave. This wave may be so big as to make the current one look pale in contrast. In a sense we have, in the fourth wave, experienced what Italy did last year. Now the fear is that we may experience what India, Peru and some other countries in South America are experiencing.

‘Some of our leaders seem to live in denial of the reality; one even saying that the pandemic in Malaysia is under control. Others have set a value of '4000 cases' as a benchmark to use, but in the face of a high positivity and limited testing this is fraught with problems. A good look at the data and trends suggest that the worst may be yet to come.’

Read here (The Malay Mail, June 25, 2021)

Indian Covid mutant more contagious, but not vaccine resistant: Top WHO scientist

“Surge in India increases chances of more dangerous variants emerging. Prelim data shows that Indian variant is more contagious. There is heterogeneity in India in terms of spread of Covid-19. WHO is concerned about number of cases and deaths in India. Globally, cases and deaths have plateaued, not in South Asia. South East Asia is seeing case rise owing to India. Overall numbers hide what is going on, need to go deeper in state, local level data,” she said.

‘Speaking on efficacy of vaccines available in India, she assured, “There is no enough data to show that double mutant is vaccine resistant. All the available vaccines today in India and elsewhere prevent severe disease and death even if you get up the infection. You are not going to end up in the ICU critically ill. The message is take the vaccine whichever is available and you eligible for it. If your turn is there, please take it.”

Read here (Yahoo, May 10, 2021)

Covid-19: Medical experts call on govt to implement a more targeted MCO to prevent fourth wave of infections

‘The government has been urged to implement a more targeted movement control order (MCO) with mass targeted testing to prevent a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections. The Health and Sciences Covid-19 Advisory Group of Experts (EAG) said the government should prioritise mitigating the spread of the virus as it was no longer realistic to try and get infection rates down to zero. 

‘It said all resources must be focused on enhancing the implementation of targeted MCOs. It recommended that all MCO areas must fully employ the digitised find, test, trace, isolation, and support (FTTIS) system, which includes the proposed targeted mass testing strategy. "A highly targeted MCO will minimise economic disruption, on top of reducing the spread of Covid-19, balancing the wellbeing of both lives and livelihoods.

"State and district health authorities must be empowered to work with external experts and determine clear and transparent thresholds for when an area should be placed under MCO. The thresholds should be defined according to population density, number of cases, and geo-characteristics of the area, and communicated clearly to the public," it said in a statement on Sunday (April 25).

‘EAG comprises representatives from the Academy of Medicine of Malaysia, Malaysian Medical Association, Malaysian Public Health Physicians Association, and the Association of Private Hospitals of Malaysia, as well as two distinguished members of the medical fraternity. It is chaired by former director-general of Health and International Medical University chairman Tan Sri Datuk Dr Abu Bakar Suleiman.’

Read here (The Star, Apr 25, 2021)

India: ’A coronavirus tsunami we have not seen before’

‘India's Covid caseload has risen sharply in the past few weeks. The country's been reporting more than 150,000 cases a day. In January and February daily cases fell below 20,000.

‘So, how did India get from relative calm to its new crisis? Workplaces, markets and malls have reopened, and transport is operating at full capacity. Big weddings, festivals and election rallies are also being held. The result: a situation that one doctor described as a "Covid tsunami".’

View here (BBC, Apr 15, 2021)

‘A tsunami of cases’: Desperation as Covid second wave batters India

‘Dr K Senthil had feared it was coming. He had feared it as he saw the reckless crush of hundreds of people taking part in large wedding parties over the past months, feared it as he saw the maskless faces of shoppers at the market, feared it as he witnessed thousands come together for political rallies in the ongoing elections in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, where he is the president of the state medical council.

‘But despite his growing sense of foreboding, the second wave of coronavirus that began to engulf India last month has confounded even Senthil’s worst expectations.’

Read here (The Guardian, Apr 14, 2021)

A city in Brazil’s Amazon rain forest is a stark warning about Covid to the rest of the world

‘Manaus and cities like it will continue to generate dangerous viral variants if vaccination campaigns are not expanded to broadly reach all nations, rich or poor...

‘Manaus was devastated by a first wave of COVID cases beginning last March. Excess deaths—the 3,457 people in the city who died above the expected mortality figures between March 19 and June 24, 2020—represented 0.16 percent of Manaus’s relatively young population. And 7 percent of men older than 75 died at the peak of the spread.

‘Infections were so prevalent that researchers at the University of São Paulo and their colleagues concluded that Manaus was the first city in the world to reach herd immunity—the point at which enough people are immune to a virus that the spread of new infections is hindered. Their preliminary preprint study estimated that 66 percent of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (they later revised their figure to 76 percent as of October). The threshold for COVID herd immunity is unknown, but projections often cited range from 60 to 90 percent. Similarly high rates of infection have also been found in the Peruvian and Colombian Amazon...

‘In December 2020 a second wave did hit. And by January the city’s health system, which serves communities across the Amazon, had collapsed. ICUs were full to bursting, and oxygen supplies became exhausted. Some patients were airlifted to other regions of Brazil. But many died of asphyxiation on makeshift beds in hospital corridors or their home, doctors say.

‘More severe than the first one, the new wave took Manaus by surprise. Wearing masks and practicing social distancing had been discarded in the belief the city had reached herd immunity. Caseloads surged out of control, and bleak milestones from last year were surpassed. In January alone more than 3,200 excess deaths were logged, Orellana says.’

Read here (Scientific American, Mar 29, 2021)