Coronavirus: The Swiss Cheese Strategy -- Tomas Pueyo

‘There are the four layers to stop the spread of the virus: Fences, Bubbles, Contrafection, and Test-Trace-Isolate. None of them is perfect. All have holes that let infections pass. But together they form an impenetrable defence.

‘An infection might be able to pass one layer, or even two. But if there are several, the odds that the infection goes through every layer undetected becomes minuscule. Imagine, for example, that a country has a Fence that catches 80% of infections, no Social Bubbles, Reduced Contagiousness that eliminates 95% of infections, and a test-trace-isolate that neutralizes 50% of infections. Together, these layers catch 99.5% of cases. If the transmission rate R is 3 (the number of people infected by a source), it will be reduced to 0.015! Every infected person only infects an additional 0.015 people, killing the epidemic within a few weeks.’

Also...

• How the US and the EU failed to control the virus, and how comparable countries succeeded.
• How you can make sense of all the necessary measures with one simple idea.
• Why the West’s testing and contact tracing is largely useless — and what they can do about it.
• The questions that journalists and the People must ask politicians to keep them accountable.
• How you can stop the virus in your own community, without the need of your government.

Read here (Medium, Nov 9, 2020) 

How people coped in lockdown

‘The first wave of COVID caused huge suffering, and has led to warnings of an ‘epidemic’ or ‘tsunami’ of mental health problems. But there is another, more hopeful story to tell, about how people coped and even thrived during the adversity of 2020. It’s important to remember this as we head into the winter and a likely second wave.

‘The Collective Psychology Project has been researching how people coped, for a report for the Wellcome Trust called Collective Resilience. We were interested in how people discovered the ‘active ingredients’ of mental health, not just through therapy and pills, but also through self-care and mutual aid activities — from poetry to philosophy, from baking to cycling, from online learning to joining a neighbourhood support group.

‘What we discovered tallied with a lot of evidence, such as from the What Works Centre for Well-Being, about how people cope and flourish through non-medical activities like exercise, gardening, the arts, faith, philosophy & spirituality.’

Read here (Medium, Sept 18, 2020) 

A supercomputer analysed Covid-19 — and an interesting new theory has emerged: A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis

‘Earlier this summer, the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee set about crunching data on more than 40,000 genes from 17,000 genetic samples in an effort to better understand Covid-19. Summit is the second-fastest computer in the world, but the process — which involved analyzing 2.5 billion genetic combinations — still took more than a week.

‘When Summit was done, researchers analyzed the results. It was, in the words of Dr. Daniel Jacobson, lead researcher and chief scientist for computational systems biology at Oak Ridge, a “eureka moment.” The computer had revealed a new theory about how Covid-19 impacts the body: the bradykinin hypothesis. The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms. It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved. Jacobson’s group published their results in a paper in the journal eLife in early July...

‘Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. Once inside, though, they don’t just take your stuff — they also throw open all your doors and windows so their accomplices can rush in and help pillage more efficiently...’

Read here (Elemental Medium, September 1, 2020)

What the D614G mutation means for Covid-19 spread, fatality, treatment, and vaccine

‘We are facing the global shift of the SARS-CoV-2 variant — from D614 to G614. The G614 variant is more infectious in laboratory settings; whether it means increased viral spread in humans is unconfirmed. Current evidence says that the G614 variant is not any deadlier than D614. And so, treatment options should not be any more different. Both the D614 and G614 variants should react similarly to vaccines, studies suggest, as the mutation does not change the immunogenic part of the spike protein; that is, the receptor-binding domain (RBD).’

[This is a survey of literature by a young post-grad Malaysian. It gives a rounded picture of the D614G mutation without using too much jargon. Must counter check the accuracy of what's stated against the originals.] 

Read here (Medium, July 31, 2020)

Should we aim for herd immunity like Sweden?

‘One thing is to decide against a Hammer. That’s fine. It happened. We can’t change the past. A very different thing is to know you can Dance to reduce your epidemic dramatically and for quite cheap, but actively decide not to do it. The UK’s government has acknowledged its mistakes and changed course. Pressure is mounting for Sweden to do the same. Tens of thousands of lives are at stake. If the government doesn’t decide to acknowledge its mistakes and correct its course, bodies will keep piling up for nothing.

Summary of the article: ‘Sweden is suffering tremendously in cases and deaths. Yet few people have been infected yet. They are a long way from Herd Immunity. Between 0.5% to 1.5% of infected die from the coronavirus. Left uncontrolled, it can kill between 0.4% and 1% of the entire population. Many more suffer conditions we don’t yet understand. Unfortunately, that death and sickness toll is far from having bought us Herd Immunity anywhere in the world. Only protecting those most at risk sounds great. It’s a fantasy today. Even if Sweden’s economy has remained mostly open, it has still suffered as much as others. From now on, it might start doing worse. Sweden now has regrets. But not enough. It can control the virus without a lockdown if it acknowledges its mistakes and takes the right measures. Other countries, like the US or the Netherlands, are toying with a Herd Immunity strategy. It will only cause more economic loss and death.’

Read here (Medium, June 10, 2020)

Coronavirus may be a blood vessel disease, which explains everything

‘A respiratory virus infecting blood cells and circulating through the body is virtually unheard of. Influenza viruses like H1N1 are not known to do this, and the original SARS virus, a sister coronavirus to the current infection, did not spread past the lung. Other types of viruses, such as Ebola or Dengue, can damage endothelial cells, but they are very different from viruses that typically infect the lungs...

‘An infection of the blood vessels would explain many of the weird tendencies of the novel coronavirus, like the high rates of blood clots... Blood vessel damage could also explain why people with pre-existing conditions like high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, and heart disease are at a higher risk for severe complications from a virus that’s supposed to just infect the lungs.’

Read here (Medium, May 29, 2020)

Covid underdogs: Mongolia -- ‘The best response in the world’

‘Starting in January, Mongolia executed a perfect public health response, and they have never let up the pressure since. COVID-19 did not just leave Mongolia alone. Mongolia kicked its ass. For this all this hard work, however, they get little credit. Nobody’s talking about the ‘Mongolian example’. Instead, we talk about total failures like Germany or Sweden. Like I’ve said, success is ZERO, and Mongolia is as zero as you can get...

‘...they don’t have a time machine. They just saw what was happening in Hubei, they coordinated with China and the WHO, and they got their shit together fast. That’s their secret, not the elevation. They just weren’t dumb.’

Read here (Medium, May 18, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 5: Prevent seeding and spreading

This is Part 5 of ‘Learning how to dance’, a series which goes in depth to understand what countries need to do to Dance, to reopen their economies without new outbreaks.

‘The bad news first: (1) We will likely need to heavily slow down national and international tourism for months, (2) Big events like business fairs or music concerts will need to remain closed for now

‘The good news: (1) We should still be able to travel for one-way or very long trips (2) There are ways we can accelerate the reopening of tourism (3) We can probably reopen schools (4) A clear order is emerging for which businesses should reopen. The most important to keep open are likely banks, grocery, and general stores, and the least important are likely cafés, dessert parlors, and gyms’.

Read here (Medium, May 13, 2020)

In The NYTimes, only white leaders stand out

‘The New York Times recently published a list of “true leaders” in the fight against COVID-19. They spend exactly one sentence on Asia and the rest on white leaders that mostly did worse than Iran. The structural racism is mind-boggling, and it’s getting people killed.

‘According to the NYTimes, Iran Completely and Utterly Botched Its Response to the Coronavirus, but countries with higher mortality rates like Germany, Italy, Sweden, and Denmark are listed as true leaders. It makes no sense. It’s just racism, so structural that the Editorial Board can’t even see it. It’s built into the edifice of the paper itself.’

Read here (Medium, May 4, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 3: How to do testing and contact tracing. Tomas Pueyo

‘Thankfully, a set of four measures can dramatically reduce the epidemic. They are dirt cheap compared to closing the economy. If many countries are enduring the Hammer today, these measures are the scalpel, carefully extracting the infected rather than hitting everybody at once. These four measures need each other. They don’t work without one another:

• With testing, we find out who is infected
• With isolations, we prevent them from infecting others
• With contact tracing, we figure out the people with whom they’ve been in contact
• With quarantines, we prevent these contacts from infecting others

‘Testing and contact tracing are the intelligence, while isolations and quarantines are the action. We’ll dive into the first two today — testing and contact tracing — and the next two will be covered next.’

Read here (Medium, April 28, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 2: The basic dance steps everybody can follow. Tomas Pueyo

‘Any country can follow a series of measures that are very cheap and can dramatically reduce the epidemic: mandate wearing home-made masks, apply physical distancing and hygiene everywhere, and educate the public.

‘It’s time to dive deep into all these possible measures, to understand them really well and decide which ones we should follow. We can split them into 4 blocks:

• Cheap measures that might be enough to suppress the coronavirus, such as masks, physical distancing, testing, contact tracing, quarantines, isolations, and others
• Somewhat expensive measures that might be necessary in some cases, such as travel bans and limits on social gatherings
• Expensive measures that might not always be necessary during the dance, such as blanket school and business closures
• Medical capacity

Read here (Medium, April 23, 2020)

“Hammer and the dance” in Bahasa Malaysia

A UPM medical student translated Tomas Pueyo's The Hammer and The Dance into BM.

Read here (Medium, March 22, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 1: A dancing masterclass, or what we can learn from countries around the world. Tomas Pueyo

‘A month ago we sounded the alarm with “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now”. After that, we asked countries to buy us time with “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance” and looked in detail at the US situation with “Coronavirus: Out of Many, One. Together”, these articles have been viewed by over 60 million people and translated into over 40 languages.

‘This article will explain when, and how, we will dance. Specifically, we will discover:

• What can we learn from the experiences of countries around the world?
• What measures will we need to implement during the dance, so we can get back to a new normal? At what cost?
• How can we make them a reality?’

Read here (Medium, April 20, 2020)

The hammer and the dance -- What the next 18 months can look like, if leaders buy us time

This second article by Tomas Pueyo, a follow-up to his ‘Coronavirus: Why you must act now’, is summarised as follows: ’Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.’

In this article he deals with: (1) What’s the current situation? (2) What options do we have? (3) What’s the one thing that matters now: Time (4) What does a good coronavirus strategy look like? (4) How should we think about the economic and social impacts?

Read here (Medium, updated March 19, 2020)

Prepare for the ultimate gaslighting

A massive campaign to return to normality is on the way, however, this writer implores his fellow citizens to listen: ‘From one citizen to another, I beg of you: Take a deep breath, ignore the deafening noise, and think deeply about what you want to put back into your life. This is our chance to define a new version of normal, a rare and truly sacred (yes, sacred) opportunity to get rid of the bullshit and to only bring back what works for us, what makes our lives richer, what makes our kids happier, what makes us truly proud...

‘We are a good people. And as a good people, we want to define — on our own terms — what this country looks like in five, 10, 50 years. This is our chance to do that, the biggest one we have ever gotten. And the best one we’ll ever get.’

Read here (Medium, April 10, 2020)

Coronavirus: Why you must act now -- Politicians, community leaders and business leaders: What should you do and when?

This article by Tomas Pueyo, which has received over 40 million views, and translated into over 40 languages as at March 19, begins with the following:

‘With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?... Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources: (1) How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area? (2) What will happen when these cases materialise? (3) What should you do? (4) When?’

Read here (Medium, updated March 19, 2020)

List of prominent people who have endorsed or shared his article. Read here