Normalcy by spring, and herd immunity by fall? This McKinsey & Co article assesses the prospects for an end to the pandemic in 2021.
‘More than eight months and 900,000 deaths into the COVID-19 pandemic,1 people around the world are longing for an end. In our view, there are two important definitions of “end,” each with a separate timeline:
- An epidemiological end point when herd immunity is achieved.
- A transition to a form of normalcy.
‘Both the epidemiological and normalcy ends to the COVID-19 pandemic are important. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. In the United States, while the transition to normal might be accomplished sooner, the epidemiological end point looks most likely to be reached in the second half of 2021. Other advanced economies are probably on similar timetables.’
Read here (McKinsey & Co, Sept 21, 2020)
