The prevalence of long Covid symptoms and Covid-19 complications (plus updated estimates)

‘The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) published data regarding the prevalence of symptoms associated with “long COVID” in patients who recovered from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. The data indicate that approximately 20% of infected individuals exhibit symptoms for 5 weeks or longer, and 10% report symptoms for 12 weeks or longer. This corresponds to an estimated 186,000 individuals in England with symptoms lasting between 5 and 12 weeks. The findings are based on responses to the UK’s COVID-19 Infection Survey, which utilizes a nationally representative sample from across the UK, and efforts are ongoing to gather additional data, including on symptoms that persist longer than 12 weeks. A more detailed look at the available data shows that prevalence of long COVID symptoms* tends to increase with age, peaking in the 35-49 years (26.8%) and 50-69 years (26.1%) age groups, compared to the 2-11 years (12.9%) and 12-16 years (14.5%) age groups. Additionally, there appears to be a statistically significant increase in prevalence among women (23.6%) compared to men (20.7%).’

Read here (Office for NationaL Statistics, UK, Dec 16, 2020)

Read here for update (Office for NationaL Statistics, UK, Jan 21, 2021)

We're about to see a wave of long Covid. When will ministers take it seriously?

‘Long Covid is shorthand for a range of conditions. Some scientists divide them into three broad categories, others into four. Of these, one seems to ring a bell. It’s a cluster of symptoms that bear a strong similarity to myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). This is a devastating condition that affects roughly a quarter of a million people in the UK, and is often caused, like long Covid, by viral infection...

‘The NHS is now setting up specialist clinics to treat long Covid. But already, apparent mistakes are being made. Without the necessary caveats, the NHS recommends steadily increasing levels of exercise for people suffering from post-Covid fatigue. But as ME/CFS patients with post-exertional malaise know, this prescription, though it sounds intuitive, could be highly damaging.

‘We need massive research programmes into both long Covid and ME/CFS, coupled with better information for doctors. But above all, we need something that currently seems a long way off. A government that gives a damn.’

Read here (The Guardian, Jan 21, 2021)

One in eight ‘recovered’ Covid patients ‘die within 140 days’

‘The University of Leicester and the Office for National Statistics found that out of 47,780 people discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4% were back in hospital within 140 days and 12.3% died. Covid survivors were three and half times more likely to be readmitted to hospital and die compared to other conditions.’

Read here (Metro, UK, Jan 18, 2021)

Past Covid-19 infection may provide 'months of immunity'

‘Most people who have had Covid-19 are protected from catching it again for at least five months, a study led by Public Health England shows. Past infection was linked to around a 83% lower risk of getting the virus, compared with those who had never had Covid-19, scientists found.

‘But experts warn some people do catch Covid-19 again - and can infect others. And officials stress people should follow the stay-at-home rules - whether or not they have had the virus.’

Read here (BBC, Jan 14, 2021) 

Vitamin D and Covid-19: Why the controversy?

‘The issue of vitamin D supplementation has been extensively debated, with strong arguments in favour and against. The COVID-19 pandemic has further escalated the discussion. It has long been clear that groups that traditionally exhibit vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency, such as older adults and nursing home residents, and Black, Asian, and minority ethnic populations, are the same groups that have also been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. Additionally, increased time spent indoors due to strict lockdowns and shielding triggered concerns that some people might not obtain the necessary physiological levels of vitamin D from sunlight...

‘On Dec 17, 2020, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), in collaboration with Public Health England and the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition, published an updated rapid review of recent studies on vitamin D and COVID-19. Their recommendations support the current government advice, revised in April, 2020, during the first lockdown in the UK, for everyone to take vitamin D supplements to maintain bone and muscle health during the autumn and winter months... However, the rapid review concluded that sufficient evidence to support vitamin D supplementation with the aim of preventing or treating COVID-19 was still lacking and that the topic should be further investigated. Experts studying vitamin D welcomed the call for more research, but the lack of specific recommendations in the context of COVID-19 was also met with disappointment by many in the scientific community who have argued that vitamin D supplementation is generally safe and that any potential low toxicity would likely be strongly outweighed by any potential benefits in relation to protection from COVID-19.

‘NICE should continue to monitor new evidence as it is peer-reviewed and published, including results from several clinical trials on vitamin D and COVID-19 outcomes that are currently underway. However, particularly in countries where the pandemic situation continues to worsen (and will continue to do so during the winter months before the effects of vaccinations become perceptible), additional evidence could come in just too late. In an ideal world, all health decisions would be made based on overwhelming evidence, but a time of crisis may call for a slightly different set of rules.’ [blog editor’s emphasis]

Read here (The Lancet, Jan 11, 2021)

Covid has exposed how incompetent the British state is, from top to bottom

‘Coronavirus has revealed a country so ill-governed that current politicians cannot be blamed for all of it. The traditional model holds that ministers decide on the general direction of policy and officials interpret and implement it. This balance of roles has been eroded at least since the turn of the century, largely by a ministerial craving for headlines that led to a daily welter of central initiatives, interventions and vanity projects. Officials are expected not to challenge but to obey.

‘This has clearly affected the calibre and morale of the civil service, with high-profile departures from Downing Street, the Home Office and Foreign Office. Johnson also gave too much prominence to scientists, hoping to blame them if things went wrong, and then found himself in perpetual conflict with them. This in turn allowed Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to appear blessed with decisive and clear-sighted leadership by contrast.’

Read here (The Guardian, Jan 4, 2020) 

Britain takes a gamble with Covid-19 vaccines, upping the stakes for the rest of us: Mixing and matching, and extending interval between doses

‘In an extraordinary time, British health authorities are taking extraordinary measures to beat back Covid-19. But some experts say that, in doing so, they are also taking a serious gamble. In recent days, the British have said they will stretch out the interval between the administration of the two doses required for Covid-19 vaccines already in use — potentially to as long as three months, instead of the recommended three or four weeks. And they have said they will permit the first dose and second dose for any one person to be from different vaccine manufacturers, if the matching vaccine is not available.

‘The moves are borne of a desire to begin vaccinating as many people as quickly as possible, particularly with Britain facing high levels of transmission of an apparently more infectious form of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.’

Read here (Stat News, Jan 4, 2021)

Fast-spreading UK virus variant raises alarms

‘The U.K. lineage of SARS-CoV-2 has apparently acquired 17 mutations that lead to amino acid changes in its proteins all at once, a feat never seen before in the coronavirus. Crucially, eight of them were in the gene that encodes spike, a protein on the viral surface that the pathogen uses to enter human cells. “There's now a frantic push to try and characterize some of these mutations in the lab,” says Andrew Rambaut, a molecular evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh... Read the story for more details.’

Read here (Science magazine, Jan 1, 2021)

UK scientists trial drug to prevent infection that leads to Covid

‘British scientists are trialling a new drug that could prevent someone who has been exposed to coronavirus from going on to develop the disease Covid-19, which experts say could save many lives.

‘The antibody therapy would confer instant immunity against the disease and could be given as an emergency treatment to hospital inpatients and care home residents to help contain outbreaks. People living in households where someone has caught Covid could be injected with the drug to ensure they do not become infected too. It could also be given to university students, among whom the virus has spread rapidly because they live, study and socialise together.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 25, 2020)

World's media ask how it went so wrong for 'Plague Island' Britain

‘In the eyes of the world’s media, Britain – a “Plague Island” led by a man who thinks “optimism is a substitute for hard truths and proper management” – is currently getting a good lesson in “what ‘reclaiming sovereignty’ means”...

‘Much of the blame was on Boris Johnson, whose U-turn on Christmas had “once more shown the yawning gulf between the prime minister’s airy promises and the real world,” said Germany’s Die Welt. That vacuum, however, is now “fast being filled with the anger and fear of a nation hit ever since by horror story upon horror story”. The continental blockade could well be “preparing the British for what Brexit might actually mean”, the paper said, “since there is still no agreement on a trade deal, 10 days before the deadline.”

‘The Netherlands’ NRC Handelsblad said that no one in the UK would have a normal Christmas: “not even a tiny bit of one. The ports are closed; London’s stations witnessed a veritable exodus; tens of kilometres of trucks are stranded on the country’s motorways; ministers are publicly saying the virus is out of control.”...

The Sydney Morning Herald: ‘Britain’s response to the pandemic had been “mired in inaction, plagued by failures of the state to mobilise and Johnson’s own destructive habit of promising false dawns simply because he cannot stand to be the bearer of bad news”.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 22, 2020)

There are thousands of Covid strains, so this new scare is NOT a big deal, but politicians just love their new authoritarianism

‘Let me set the scene. The world (we are told) is in the grip of a deadly plague. Health services (we are told) are on the brink of collapse. And just when you think things cannot get any worse, the horrific news comes down from on high that our invisible enemy has mutated into an even scarier form. Although it is too early to know anything of substance about it, it is entirely possible that it is more contagious, or more dangerous, or – who knows – maybe both.

‘Was that the situation at the weekend as the UK was plunged into what’s rapidly become its worst crisis since World War II (and certainly the worst self-induced one), just ahead of Christmas? No, this was the precise situation FIVE MONTHS AGO, when I wrote about Spike D614G, a mutant variant of coronavirus that we were told could be up to NINE TIMES more contagious. You may not remember because that mutant strain turned out to be a total nothing burger. So why would this one be any different?’

Read here (RT, Dec 21, 2020)

New Covid strain in the UK: What we know in 500 words

‘European countries ban UK passengers in bid to contain new mutation, which is 70 percent more infectious and ripping through London...

‘Vaccines should still be effective against it and the new strain is not believed to be any more deadly, but people are increasingly worried because this mutation appears to be 70 percent more infectious. The new variant, which has been named VUI-202012/01 (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020), is thought to have first occurred in mid-September in the country’s southeast, in the capital London or the county of Kent.

‘Susan Hopkins of Public Health England said the agency notified the government on December 18 when modelling revealed the full seriousness of the new strain. The UK submitted its findings to the World Health Organization the same day.’

Read here (Aljazeera, Dec 20, 2020)

Relaxing Covid rules at Christmas will cost lives: Rare joint statement by two major UK medical journals

‘The British government came under intense pressure on Tuesday to revise its plan to relax COVID-19 restrictions for five days around Christmas, with two influential medical journals making a rare joint appeal for the policy to be scrapped... In what was only their second joint editorial in more than 100 years, the British Medical Journal and the Health Service Journal said the government should be tightening the rules rather than allowing three households to mix over five days. “We believe the government is about to blunder into another major error that will cost many lives,” the editorial said.’

Read here (Reuters, Dec 15, 2020)

Covid: Trials to test combination of Oxford and Sputnik vaccines

‘UK and Russian scientists are teaming up to trial a combination of the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Sputnik V vaccines to see if protection against Covid-19 can be improved. Mixing two similar vaccines could lead to a better immune response in people. The trials, to be held in Russia, will involve over-18s, although it's not clear how many people will be involved.’

Read here (BBC, Dec 11, 2020)

Research finds 5 genes linked to severest form of Covid-19

‘A study found five key genes central to many severe cases of COVID-19 and pointed to some existing drugs that could be repurposed to treat those at risk of getting critically ill from the disease...

‘Five key genes are linked with the severest form of COVID-19, scientists said on Friday, in research that also pointed to several existing drugs that could be repurposed to treat people who risk getting critically ill with the pandemic disease.

‘Researchers who studied the DNA of 2,700 COVID-19 patients in 208 intensive care units across the United Kingdom found that five genes involving in two molecular processes – antiviral immunity and lung inflammation – were central to many severe cases.’

Read here (Aljazeera, Dec 11, 2020)

Information for UK recipients on Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine: UK government

‘Warnings and precautions: Talk to your doctor, pharmacist or nurse before you are given the vaccine if you have:

• Had a serious allergic reaction to a previous vaccine, medicine or food
• Had any problems following previous administration of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 such as allergic reaction or breathing problems
• A severe illness with high fever. However, a mild fever or upper airway infection, like a cold, are not reasons to delay vaccination.
• A weakened immune system, such as due to HIV infection, or are on a medicine that affects your immune system
• A bleeding problem, bruise easily or use a medicine to inhibit blood clotting

‘As with any vaccine, COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 may not fully protect all those who receive it. No data are currently available in individuals with a weakened immune system or who are taking chronic treatment that suppresses or prevents immune responses.

‘Other medicines and COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2: Tell your doctor or pharmacist if you are using, have recently used or might use any other medicines or have recently received any other vaccine.

‘Pregnancy and breast-feeding: There is currently limited data available on the use of this vaccine in pregnant women. If you are pregnant or breast-feeding, think you may be pregnant or are planning to have a baby, ask your doctor or pharmacist for advice before you receive this vaccine. As a precaution, you should avoid becoming pregnant until at least 2 months after the vaccine.’

Click here to read more (UK government, Dec 2020)

Man named William Shakespeare, one of the first to get Pfizer vaccine, sets off pun cascade

‘To be or not to be vaccinated, that is the question. After an 81-year-old named William Shakespeare became the second person in the West to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine in Britain outside clinical trials Tuesday, social media erupted with joy, puns and many quotes from the great British playwright. “They really are prioritising the elderly: this guy is 456,” wrote one user, while the term “Two Gentlemen of Corona,” a play on “The Two Gentlemen of Verona,” swiftly became a top trend in Britain. Others quipped that the first batch of inoculations, part of the first mass coronavirus immunization campaign in the West, marked the “Taming of the Flu.”

Read here (Washington Post, Dec 9, 2020)

People with a history of ‘significant’ allergic reactions shouldn’t have Pfizer jab, UK regulator warns

‘The UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency updated its guidance to British health service trusts on who should receive the vaccine. The precautionary advice came after two members of Britain’s National Health Service, who received the vaccine on Tuesday, experienced allergic reactions to the shot. Both are recovering well, according to the national medical director for the NHS.’

Read here (CNBC, Dec 9, 2020)

When will you be eligible for the Covid vaccine? Britain

Broadly, vaccines are being given to the most vulnerable first, as set out in a list of nine high-priority groups, covering about a quarter of the UK population. They are thought to represent 90-99% of those at risk of dying from Covid-19.

1. Residents in care homes for older adults and their carers
2. 80-year-olds and over and frontline health and social care workers
3. 75-year-olds and over
4. 70-year-olds and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
5. 65-year-olds and over
6. 16 to 64-year-olds with serious underlying health conditions
7. 60-year-olds and over
8. 55-year-olds and over
9. 50-year-olds and over

People aged over 80 in hospital, frontline health staff and care home workers have been the first to get the jab at 70 designated hospitals hubs across the UK.

Read here (BBC, Dec 8, 2020)

As first Pfizer vaccine doses arrive in UK, officials tell doctors and nurses they won’t get priority

‘Priority will go to people over 80 years old and to nursing home caregivers, and even for those groups, demand could quickly outstrip supply in the early months, public health officials cautioned. The 800,000 doses Britain expects to get this month “could be the only batch we receive for some time,” warned Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers.’

Read here (Washington Post, Dec 4, 2020)