Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh study: (1) 8% of the detected Covid-19 cases accounted for 60% of the transmission (2) Transmission among individuals of approximately the same age was highest among children under 15 years old and adults 65 years and older

‘A study published in Science analyzed surveillance and contact tracing data from two South Indian states, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, collected through August 1. This is one of the few studies that captures the epidemiology of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries on a large scale. Together, these states account for approximately 10% (127.8 million) of India’s national population, and they contain the most robust healthcare workforces and public health infrastructure in the country. The study provides a detailed look at the timeline and growth of the COVID-19 epidemics in these states, including incidence and mortality.

‘The researchers found that the majority of cases (71%) did not result in secondary transmission to any of their contacts identified through contact tracing efforts. Based on data collected from more than 600,000 cases and contacts, the researchers estimate that 8% of the detected COVID-19 cases accounted for 60% of the transmission, providing further evidence that super-spreading events play a major role in the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers also identified that transmission among individuals of approximately the same age was highest among children under 15 years old and adults 65 years and older. While the researchers were not able to determine the degree of transmission from children to adults, the study results support that pediatric cases do play a role in the ongoing pandemic. Overall, the case fatality ratio was 2.06%, and generally increased with age; however, unlike the US, mortality tended to plateau rather than increase in individuals 75 years and older. The reasons for this trend are uncertain. Additionally, the median hospital admission time before death was 6 days.’

Read here (John Hopkins Newsletter, Science, Sept 30, 2020)

Knowing Covid-19 was at their door, family of 8 planned strategy to fight it

‘When Aman Gwjwn, 17, developed a persistent cough and cold in July while on holiday at her grandmother's home in Bangalore, her family of eight went to war, preparing themselves for Covid-19 to sweep through their home. Everyone from a 14-year-old eighth-grade student to a near-octogenarian would go on to be infected. But the Chinese-Indian family slowly won their battle against the disease over the next 1½ months, armed with discipline, composure and logistical planning.

"Our approach was: We'll all surely get it, but we'll all survive it as a family. We just made sure everyone didn't fall sick together, so that some people were healthy enough to take care of the others," said Ms Jennifer Liang, 48, Aman's mother and a social worker in Assam who flew to Bangalore immediately. The Liangs formed what they called "a war council" of decision makers, which included Jennifer's husband Sunil Kaul, a doctor and public health activist in Assam. As Aman isolated herself in her uncle's house nearby, the family set up a WhatsApp group called Covid Planning.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 26, 2020) 

Is herd immunity an option for India as it becomes second country after US to cross 5 million Covid-19 cases?

‘As coronavirus cases continue to spiral in India, only the second country after the US to cross the 5 million milestone, questions have been raised over whether herd immunity is an option for India now. Some epidemiologists believe it is already taking place in small areas where high infection levels have been followed by a weakening of the Covid-19 virus. Others believe that it is too soon to predict or holds little promise.

‘Dr Rajni Kant from the Indian Council of Medical Research: "Herd immunity right now is not a (government) strategy for coronavirus control. The current strategy is wearing a mask, following social distancing and good hygiene with regular washing of hands." Still, there are silver linings in India's Covid-19 fight. The country's mortality rate at 1.64 per cent is the lowest in the world and recovery is among the highest with a recovery rate of 78-79 per cent.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 17, 2020)

India considers emergency authorisation of vaccine as COVID-19 cases surge

‘India said on Sunday (Sep 13) it was considering granting an emergency authorisation for a COVID-19 vaccine, particularly for the elderly and people in high-risk workplaces, as the country's number of reported infections passed 4.75 million. India, which has consistently reported over 1,000 COVID-19 deaths daily this month, has now recorded 78,586 fatalities from the disease. It lags only the United States globally in overall number of infections, but it has been adding more daily cases than the United States since mid-August. "India is considering emergency authorisation of a COVID-19 vaccination," said Health Minister Harsh Vardhan. "If there is a consensus we may go ahead with it, especially in the case of senior citizens and people working in high-risk settings."

Read here (Channel News Asia, Sept 14, 2020)

Coronavirus crisis shatters India's big dreams

‘Not so long ago, India’s future looked entirely different. It boasted a sizzling economy that was lifting millions out of poverty, building modern megacities and amassing serious geopolitical firepower. It aimed to give its people a middle-class lifestyle, update its woefully vintage military and become a regional political and economic superpower that could someday rival China, Asia’s biggest success story. But the economic devastation in Surat and across the country is imperiling many of India’s aspirations. The Indian economy has shrunk faster than any other major nation’s. As many as 200 million people could slip back into poverty, according to some estimates. Many of its normally vibrant streets are empty, with people too frightened of the outbreak to venture far.

‘Much of this damage was caused by the coronavirus lockdown imposed by India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, which experts now say was at turns both too tight and too porous, both hurting the economy and spreading the virus. India now has the fastest growing coronavirus crisis, with more than 80,000 new infections reported each day.’

Read here (New York Times, Sept 5, 2020)

In Latin America, religious misinformation on Covid-19 spreads with the help of the Christian press

‘Latin American Christian communities aren’t the only religious groups to fall victim to misleading claims or outright misinformation about the pandemic. In June, Spanish cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera declared attempts to find a vaccine the “work of the devil” that would involve “aborted fetuses” in a filmed Mass shared around the world. Church leaders in Australia raised similar concerns recently, apparently unaware that the practice of using cell lines grown from a fetus in 1972 has been commonplace in vaccine development for decades.

‘In India, Hindu religious and political leaders have promoted cow urine as a cure for Covid-19, inspired by the sacred status of cows in Hinduism, and declared the coronavirus would leave India once a controversial temple was completed. Claims that a polio vaccine contained pork products or toxic ingredients, often circulated by Muslim clerics, have damaged the fight against the disease in Muslim-majority Pakistan.’

Read here (Nieman Lab, Sept 2, 2020) 

India, Japan, Australia keen to boost supply chain security by reducing reliance on China

‘The Supply Chain Resilience Initiative will look to secure supply chains and reduce dependence on China in wake of the disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The supply chain initiative could also eventually be expanded to include the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).’

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 21, 2020)

Millions more in India may have caught coronavirus, antibody study suggests

‘More than a quarter of New Delhi's 20 million residents may have caught the novel coronavirus without showing symptoms, a study released on Thursday (Aug 20) indicated, raising fresh doubts about India's official case numbers. Extrapolated, the antibody study on 15,000 residents means 5.8 million people in the bustling capital could have caught the virus - more than 37 times the official tally of 156,139 infections.’

Read here (Straits Times, August 20, 2020) 

India’s coronavirus fight and lessons from my family’s struggle with TB in the 1950s

‘During the current Covid-19 pandemic, I often imagine Biji [mother], with her gritty countenance, asking total strangers why they are not wearing a mask, or reprimanding a group of people for not maintaining a minimum social distance. I had already seen her tackling several difficult situations. But how did she get to a position where she could extract compliance and discipline from people around her?

‘The odds were heavily loaded against Biji for most of her wedded life. She lost four children to infant mortality. When Taaya [father, later inflicted with TB and died aged 43] lost his job, she struggled to run our home by stitching clothes or knitting cane chairs. One day in 1956, we had no vegetables, lentils, potatoes or cooking oil left at home. She gave me a one-anna coin to go and buy 200 grams of raw tomatoes, sprinkled salt on them, and we ate them with chapattis (Indian bread).

‘Alone, she braved deprivation but rarely succumbed to hopelessness. Each hardship only made her more determined to face life in a bold, liberated and result-oriented manner...’

J V Yakhmi is a former chairman of the Atomic Energy Education Society in Mumbai and a retired associate director of the physics group at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre.

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 7, 2020)

Once-model states suffer response fatigue as Covid-19 surges in India

‘The city of Bangalore... was a model for the response to Covid-19 in India just last week. But infections have doubled in the first six days of July, crossing 10,000. With about 1,000 new infections a day, the famed tech city is now gripped by confusion about bed availability, disappearing medical staff, and falling rates of testing...

‘The neighbouring state of Kerala, which received international praise for its early and rigorous response to the pandemic that began with its - and India's - first case on January 30, is also showing signs of response fatigue.’

Read here (Straits Times, July 7, 2020)

India's female Corona-warriors: Underpaid and unappreciated

‘Asha workers connect their communities with the public health system. While technically volunteers, they perform crucial tasks, including recording data about births, deaths, marriages and child immunisations; providing information about nutrition, sanitation, maternal and child health; accompanying pregnant women and sick children to health care centres; and helping treat diarrhoea, fevers and tuberculosis.

‘The Covid-19 outbreak added to their duties. Ashas are now expected to educate people about precautions against infection, monitor quarantined households, trace contacts of infected people and help with testing. They have no holidays.’

Read here (Straits Times, June 27, 2020)

Tale of Covid-19 in two Indian cities: Dharavi, Mumbai, a rare success, and Delhi which was “messed up”

‘Asia's largest slum Dharavi was being seen as a 'Covid-engine' that will drive Mumbai in the wrong direction. But with conscious efforts, the slum's Covid doubling rate has come down to 44 days, twice as good as Mumbai’s 22. Delhi sadly is a study in contrast with India’s highest test positivity rates. In episode 496 of ThePrint's #CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta talks about the lessons from Dharavi & new plan for Delhi.’

Watch here (Youtube, June 14, 2020)

India's richest city Mumbai is rapidly turning into the world's next coronavirus catastrophe

‘With more than 37,000 infections and 1,200 deaths, Mumbai accounts for more than a fifth of India's total coronavirus tally and almost a quarter of all deaths. There are no clear signs the situation is improving, with hundreds — if not thousands — testing positive each day. Last week videos were uploaded to social media showing bodies lying on hospital beds next to living COVID-19 patients.’

Read here (ABC News, June 1, 2020)

Virus outbreak in India market could cause cases to snowball

‘Health officials are rushing to contain a coronavirus outbreak in one of Asia’s largest fruit and vegetable markets in the southern Indian city of Chennai. So far, the market has been linked to more than 500 cases in several districts of Tamil Nadu state and adjacent Kerala state. Over 7,000 people with connections to the Koyambedu market are being traced and quarantined, said J. Radhakrishnan, the leader of Chennai's response to the coronavirus.

‘The market, which had remained open during India's six-week virus lockdown, is central to the region’s food supply chain. The challenge for public health officials is to track the many traders, workers and shoppers who visited the market. Experts said the virus cluster has exposed India’s poor surveillance during the pandemic. They said the country’s long denial of how prevalent the virus was resulted in people not taking precautions, and warned that the market cluster could result in cases in India snowballing.’

Read here (ABC News, May 6, 2020)

There is no exit from coronavirus, only containment: A perspective from India

‘Devi Sridhar, the chair of global public health at Edinburgh Medical School and director of the Global Health Governance program, recently tweeted on the three options open. Sridhar wrote: “There are few short-term options. 1: Let the virus go and thousands die. 2: Lockdown and release cycles which will destroy economy and society. 3: Aggressive test, trace, isolate strategy supported with soft physical distancing.”

‘Having said that, the horrifying twin-reality still remains to be that an end to lockdown will by no means represent a return to normality, and, equally, a second, far more destructive wave is virtually an unavoidable possibility, notwithstanding the infection-reducing social distancing as a “new normal” in our daily life.’

Read here (Indian Punchline, April 29, 2020)

India cancels order for ‘faulty’ China rapid test kits

’India has cancelled orders for about half a million coronavirus rapid testing kits from China after they were found to be “faulty“. Delhi has also withdrawn the kits that were already in use in several states. The kits take around 30 minutes to deliver a result and are supposed to detect antibodies in the blood of people who may have had the infection. They help officials quickly understand the scale of infection in a particular area. China disputes India's claims.’

Read here (BBC, April 28, 2020)

Unified in coronavirus lockdown, India splinters over reopening

‘For five weeks, Indians of all stripes have united to zealously conduct a nationwide lockdown, the largest and one of the most severe anywhere. But as the central government has started lifting restrictions in areas with few or no known cases of the coronavirus, officials are now facing a new challenge: persuading fearful residents, and their leaders, to consider a partial reopening.’

Read here (New York Times, April 28, 2020)

How India will play a major role in a Covid-19 vaccine

‘US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last fortnight that India and the US were working together to develop vaccines against the coronavirus. Mr Pompeo's remark didn't entirely come as a surprise. The two countries have run an internationally recognised joint vaccine development programme for more than three decades.

‘India is among the largest manufacturer of generic drugs and vaccines in the world. It is home to half a dozen major vaccine makers and a host of smaller ones, making doses against polio, meningitis, pneumonia, rotavirus, BCG, measles, mumps and rubella, among other diseases.’

Read here (BBC, April 27, 2020)

The COVID-19 paradox in South Asia: It is surprising that the region has far fewer infections and deaths compared with North America and Western Europe

‘The oldest and largest democracies in the world are often compared. This time is different. The first person tested positive for COVID-19 on January 21 in the United States and on January 30 in India. Roughly three months later, on April 20, the total number of infections was 7,23,605 in the U.S. and 17,265 in India, accounting for 31.2% and 0.75% of the world total, while the number of COVID-19 deaths was 34,203 in the U.S. and 543 in India, making up 21.7% and 0.33% of the world total. The share of the two countries in world population, by contrast, is about 4% and 18%, respectively.’

Read here (The Hindu, April 24, 2020)

‘There is a reason the rest of India cannot be Kerala’

This is not a Covid-19 story, however, it gives the social backdrop to the state’s successful response to the virus... ‘Modern India has been trying to be more like Mumbai. It is raising congested cities out of villages, shrinking homes, building amoeba-shaped golf courses for a few and calling it progress. Instead, maybe India should try to be a Kerala? Modern Kerala, which is misunderstood as a communist region, is in reality a post-capitalist state. A lot of things have gone into the making of its character. Mere policy cannot transform the rest of India into Kerala.’

Read here (Live Mint, April 19, 2020)