How to avoid the virus as the world reopens

‘Three key factors determine risk of exposure: proximity to people; duration of exposure; and how confined the environment is. The greatest peril lies where the three overlap. “The biggest risk is being in close proximity to someone in an indoor space for any extended period of time,” said Jeremy Rossman, honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent. The perception of risk and the actual scientific risk have sometimes diverged, he noted. “I don’t think that’s been very clearly communicated”.’

Read here (Financial Times, June 10, 2020)

Evidence for limited early spread of Covid-19 within the United States, January–February 2020

‘The first US cases of nontravel–related COVID-19 were confirmed on February 26 and 28, 2020, suggesting that community transmission was occurring by late February... Four separate lines of evidence (syndromic surveillance, virus surveillance, phylogenetic analysis, and retrospectively identified cases) suggest that limited U.S. community transmission likely began in late January or early February 2020, after a single importation from China, followed by multiple importations from Europe. Until late February, COVID-19 incidence was too low to be detected by emergency department syndromic surveillance for COVID-19–like illness... Enhanced syndromic and virus surveillance will be needed to monitor COVID-19 trends for the duration of the pandemic.’

Read here (US CDC, May 29, 2020)

Covid-19: Transmission scenarios explained

‘Ignoring the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, we find that the biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies, and workplaces, such as meat packing facilities and call centers. Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble.

‘The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections.’

Read here (Government Technology, May 11, 2020)

‘Rethink healthcare for migrant workers’

‘The government needs to rethink its healthcare policies towards undocumented migrant workers as the current policy drives them underground and made contact tracing and quarantine difficult for management of outbreaks, said epidemiologist Dr Chan Chee Khoon. He said Malaysia could not ignore its large pool of undocumented migrant workers as long as contact tracing (those who have come in close contact with those who have been tested positive with Covid-19) and quarantine remained as tools for managing the outbreak.

“The Health Ministry and Home Ministry need to rethink their policies towards undocumented migrant workers, which currently drive them underground rather than encourage them to come forth to seek treatment when afflicted with infectious and other ailments. It would be extremely difficult to carry out contact tracing when undocumented migrant workers have strong incentives to avoid contact with government agencies, ” he said.

Read here (The Star, Mar 3, 2020)