UrbanFutures: The marathon fight against Covid-19 and beyond

• ‘By all accounts, it looks highly probable that the pandemic and its direct consequences will be with us for a while, possibly for another 12 to 18 months, and its social, cultural and economic impact will be felt many years after...
• ‘To face this challenge, unified public health strategies should be implemented so that risks can be managed and, with a degree of regularity, brought into everyday life...
• ‘The Covid-19 crisis is going to redefine our lives, our economy and our future. We are in the early phase of a protracted slowdown and there is discussion in the international media about the possibility of global depression. The challenge is managing the economic shock and slowdown...
• ‘We should all be thinking about and having conversations around the type of future we want — not just for ourselves and our children, but for our friends, neighbours and fellow humans. More importantly, we need to have this conversation today, even as we manage the complexity of the first wave and its fallout.’ 

Read here (The Edge, April 23, 2020)

Amar Singh and other doctors offer guidelines for supermarkets under new normal

‘Supermarkets play an important role in Covid-19 prevention. Many supermarkets have put in place measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 at their premises. However, as the movement control order is relaxed, and client numbers increase, supermarkets will have to be even more vigilant.

‘We offer here a “Guide for Supermarkets to Standardise Covid-19 Prevention”: The “new normal” for supermarkets. This guide aims to help standardise the measures to be taken by all supermarkets, as well as offer ideas and initiatives that could be taken.’

Read here (The Malay Mail, April 22, 2020)

“Hammer and the dance” in Bahasa Malaysia

A UPM medical student translated Tomas Pueyo's The Hammer and The Dance into BM.

Read here (Medium, March 22, 2020)

MOH Malaysia lists six criteria for lifting MCO and help develop a ‘soft landing’ exit strategy

The Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH) has listed six criteria to lift the MCO and help achieve a ‘soft landing’ for the nation amidst the Covid-19 crisis:

1. Strict border control: “If we open our borders then people will start coming in and there’s a big possibility they may have the virus.”
2. Single-digit number of cases: Only when cases start to fall in the single-digit can the government seriously consider lifting the MCO
3. Having a good health system and improving testing standards: Look carefully at e.g. (a) testing capability of labs (b) if we have enough wards and intensive care units. Raise the detection standards from say 48 hours to 24 hours or less.
4. Capability to look after high-risk groups — the handicapped, elderly, and those with co-morbidity illnesses, including patients receiving hospital treatment like chemotherapy
5. (5) Adherence to new social norms: “Putrajaya needs to study this and instil in Malaysians’ minds that following social distancing, washing hands frequently and avoiding crowding around each other is the way to go moving forward.”
6. (6) Community cooperation in infected areas: Identify infected areas and get their communities to work with MOH and the relevant authorities to make sure the virus doesn’t spread again.

Read here (The Malay Mail, April 21, 2020)

When Americans go back to work, things won't be the same... and what can be done

‘Modern manufacturing plants are very capital-intensive enterprises with a lower population density. And a typical factory is used to putting a premium on controlled work processes that are safety-driven. Many could open now.’

‘For the record, Caulkins thinks restaurants should stay open, too. But, with more creativity and flexibility from governments, he sees a pathway for millions of additional workers to soon join cooks and cashiers back at work with even greater safety than we have today. Even furniture and electronics stores are potential candidates.’

Read here (Futurity, April 20, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 1: A dancing masterclass, or what we can learn from countries around the world. Tomas Pueyo

‘A month ago we sounded the alarm with “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now”. After that, we asked countries to buy us time with “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance” and looked in detail at the US situation with “Coronavirus: Out of Many, One. Together”, these articles have been viewed by over 60 million people and translated into over 40 languages.

‘This article will explain when, and how, we will dance. Specifically, we will discover:

• What can we learn from the experiences of countries around the world?
• What measures will we need to implement during the dance, so we can get back to a new normal? At what cost?
• How can we make them a reality?’

Read here (Medium, April 20, 2020)

The hammer and the dance -- What the next 18 months can look like, if leaders buy us time

This second article by Tomas Pueyo, a follow-up to his ‘Coronavirus: Why you must act now’, is summarised as follows: ’Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.’

In this article he deals with: (1) What’s the current situation? (2) What options do we have? (3) What’s the one thing that matters now: Time (4) What does a good coronavirus strategy look like? (4) How should we think about the economic and social impacts?

Read here (Medium, updated March 19, 2020)

Public health principles for a phased reopening during COVID-19: Guidance for US governors

‘This document provides an assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a variety of organisations and settings that have been closed. We outline steps to reduce potential transmission during the reopening of these organisations and settings, building on the proposed phased approach from the National Coronavirus Response: A Road Map to Reopening. Reopening businesses and other sectors represents one of many steps that will need to be taken to revitalise communities recovering from the pandemic, restore economic activity, and mitigate the unintended public health impact of the distancing measures that were necessary to confront the epidemic of COVID-19. A discussion of larger community-wide considerations for holistically enhancing recovery can be found in the Appendix.’

Download here (John Hopkins Center for Health and Security, April 17, 2020)

The Malaysian Health Coalition (MHC), representing 44 member societies and 16 individuals, calls for four measures to effect a rationalised opening-up

They are (please look at letter for full text}:

1. Decision-making on a phased restart that includes MOH, other relevant ministries or agencies and relevant medical health experts.
2. An exit strategy for the post-MCO period based on the advice of medical health and public health experts with guidelines according to the colour-coded zoning system: green, yellow and red.
3. Large-scale disinfection and sanitisation efforts that follow evidence-based procedures.
4. Work with religious authorities to adapt upcoming religious and cultural traditions to prevent mass gatherings that would further spread Covid-19.

Read here (The Star, April 17, 2020)

WHO's new strategy update outlines six factors for countries as they consider lifting restrictions

1. First, that transmission is controlled; 
2. Second, that health system capacities are in place to detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact;  
3. Third, that outbreak risks are minimised in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes; 
4. Fourth, that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other **places where it’s essential for people to go; 
5. Fifth, that importation risks can be managed; and 
6. Sixth, that communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the “new norm”

Read here (WHO, April 16, 2020)

Twelve lessons from countries that have ameliorated the effects of Covid-19

Taiwan, Iceland, South Korea and Germany, according to this CNN article, have succeeded so far in ameliorating the effects of Covid-19. There are 12 lessons to be learned from them:

Lesson #1: Be prepared
Lesson #2: Be quick
Lesson #3: Test, trace and quarantine
Lesson #4: Use data and tech
Lesson #5: Be aggressive
Lesson #6: Get the private sector involved 
Lesson #7: Act preventatively
Lesson #8: Use tech, but respect privacy
Lesson #9: You can drive-through test
Lesson #10: Learn from the past
Lesson #11: Test more as restrictions ease
Lesson #12: Build capacity at hospitals

Read here (CNN, April 16, 2020)

Could the next normal emerge from Asia?

This McKinsey & Co report talks about Asia’s resilience to disruption and focuses on four areas that will shape the next normal: (a) Rethinking social contracts (b) Defining the future of work and consumption (c) Mobilising resources at speed and scale (d) From globalisation to regionalisation. It concludes that the future global story starts in Asia.

Read here (McKinsey & Co, April 2020)

Verena Friederike Hasel: NZ's Covid-19 coronavirus response ‘extraordinary’

‘At first glance, corona seems to be an example of a wicked problem: a question that causes a dilemma because there are legitimate but conflicting interests at work. It is either people's health or the economy that will suffer. But the response of the New Zealand Government shows there need not be a contradiction. The more seriously you take the virus itself, the more quickly you can tackle the economic recovery.’

Read here (NZ Herald, April 11, 2020)

Top physicians pen letter to PM calling for gradual relaxation of MCO

‘The president of the Malaysian Medical Association and 12 predecessors have penned an open letter to Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin calling for a gradual relaxation of the movement control order (MCO) measures currently being implemented to combat the spread of Covid-19.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, April 10, 2020)

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary. There is no plan to return to normal

‘Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

‘I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.’

Read here (Vox, April 10, 2020)

Prepare for the ultimate gaslighting

A massive campaign to return to normality is on the way, however, this writer implores his fellow citizens to listen: ‘From one citizen to another, I beg of you: Take a deep breath, ignore the deafening noise, and think deeply about what you want to put back into your life. This is our chance to define a new version of normal, a rare and truly sacred (yes, sacred) opportunity to get rid of the bullshit and to only bring back what works for us, what makes our lives richer, what makes our kids happier, what makes us truly proud...

‘We are a good people. And as a good people, we want to define — on our own terms — what this country looks like in five, 10, 50 years. This is our chance to do that, the biggest one we have ever gotten. And the best one we’ll ever get.’

Read here (Medium, April 10, 2020)

Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis calls out media for panicking the public over COVID-19, reasons that ‘flattening the curve’ may make things worse for overall health system

‘Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound—in theory,’ he wrote in a paper in March. ‘A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment. Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated,’ he continued. ‘If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse… Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.’

Read here (Straight, April 10, 2020)

For the record: MMA's open letter to the Rt Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia

This letter, signed by the president of the Malaysian Medical Association (MMA), and 12 past ones, says ‘a stepwise relaxation of movement control will be the way forward. For instance, businesses may be allowed to operate with strict guidelines on how many people can be on the premises. Public transport may have to operate with limited loads, with frequent disinfection. Solitary public exercise will have to be permitted, to allow for mental and physical health issues. In all cases, strict hand hygiene and physical distancing must be observed, with masks if necessary. Interstate travel may need to be restricted, but will have to be prioritised for economic needs rather than personal.’

Read here (MMA, April 9, 2020)

Wuhan opens up

‘The months-long lockdown in the city of Wuhan in China's Hubei province - where the coronavirus pandemic started - has been lifted. Anyone who has a “green” code on a widely used smartphone health app is now allowed to leave, for the first time since 23 January. Train, road and rail connections have now been re-established. It comes after China reported no deaths on Tuesday, the first time since it began publishing figures.’

Read here (BBC, April 8, 2020)

Austria and Denmark are first to announce easing of coronavirus lockdowns

Austria and Denmark are first to announce easing of coronavirus lockdowns

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz credited his country’s early response [to the virus]; it imposed a national lockdown on March 16, earlier than some of its neighbours. “We reacted faster and more restrictively in Austria than in other countries and were therefore able to prevent the worst from happening so far...” Austria has seen three consecutive days in which the number of coronavirus recoveries have exceeded the number of new cases.

Denmark also imposed its lockdown relatively early, on March 11, and invested in widespread testing. Announcing the plan for lifting restrictions, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, “It’s like walking on a line. If we stand still along the way, we can fall. If we go too fast, things can go wrong. Therefore, we must take one cautious step at a time. And we do not yet know when we have firm ground under our feet.”

Read here (Washington Post, April 7, 2020)