French doctors say they found a Covid-19 patient from December

‘There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought. Doctors at a Paris hospital say they've found evidence that one patient admitted in December was infected with Covid-19. If verified, this finding would show that the virus was already circulating in Europe at that time -- well before the first known cases were diagnosed in France or hotspot Italy.’

Read here (CNN, May 4, 2020)

Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery

‘The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a report released Thursday. They recommended that the US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.’

Read here (CNN, May 2, 2020)

Conditional MCO might cause third wave of infections, say health experts

Health experts are voicing concern over the move to ease the movement control order (MCO) by allowing businesses to reopen starting next week, warning that this might lead to new waves of Covid-19 infections.

Azrul Mohd Khalib, the executive director of the Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy, said people might be confused over the standard operating procedures (SOP) given the short time frame for preparation, warning also of non-compliance by others.

Read here (Free Malaysia Today, May 1, 2020)

The COVID-19 paradox in South Asia: It is surprising that the region has far fewer infections and deaths compared with North America and Western Europe

‘The oldest and largest democracies in the world are often compared. This time is different. The first person tested positive for COVID-19 on January 21 in the United States and on January 30 in India. Roughly three months later, on April 20, the total number of infections was 7,23,605 in the U.S. and 17,265 in India, accounting for 31.2% and 0.75% of the world total, while the number of COVID-19 deaths was 34,203 in the U.S. and 543 in India, making up 21.7% and 0.33% of the world total. The share of the two countries in world population, by contrast, is about 4% and 18%, respectively.’

Read here (The Hindu, April 24, 2020)

Sweden health agency withdraws controversial coronavirus report

‘The Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1. Less than 24 hours later, the Agency has taken a dramatic u-turn and withdrawn the report.

‘The decision was announced via Twitter: “We have discovered an error in the report and so the authors are currently going through the material again. We will republish the report as soon as it is ready”.’

Read here (Forbes, April 22, 2020)

County of Santa Clara identifies three additional early COVID-19 deaths -- much earlier than the one on March 9, 2020, originally thought to be the first in the US

‘The County of Santa Clara Medical Examiner-Coroner has identified three individuals who died with COVID-19 in Santa Clara County before the COVID-19 associated death on March 9, 2020, originally thought to be the first death associated with COVID-19 in the county.

‘The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020. Samples from the two individuals were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).’

Read here (Santa Clara County Public Health, April 21, 2020)

Stanford study finds presence of Covid-19 may be 50 to 85 times higher than official figures

‘The study [not peer reviewed yet] has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.

‘The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.’

Read here (The Guardian, April 17, 2020)

Dutch study suggests 3% of population may have coronavirus antibodies

“This study shows that about 3% of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus,” Van Dissel said. “You can calculate from that, it’s several hundred thousand people” in a country of 17 million. The blood donation service Sanquin announced it would begin testing on 10,000 samples weekly on March 19, but later said it would only disclose results to the RIVM.’

The confirmed cases in Netherlands as of April 18 (Wikipedia) was 32,655 with 3,684 deaths

Read here (Reuters, April 16, 2020)

China’s initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan spread twice as fast as we thought, new study suggests

‘Each carrier was infecting 5.7 people on average, according to US researchers, who say previous estimate had used incomplete data Latest data based on cases whose origin could be traced more clearly, in provinces that had test kits and ample health care capacity.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, April 15, 2020)

Coronavirus replicates in throat making it easy to transmit, German scientists say

‘Pathogen that causes Covid-19 does not have to travel to the lungs to replicate, researchers say. High viral load in the throat at the onset of symptoms suggests people with Covid-19 are infectious very early on, they say.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, April 9, 2020)

First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment

‘We estimated the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, and the ten Chinese provinces that had the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases; and the confirmed case-fatality risk (cCFR) in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wenzhou, and all 31 Chinese provinces. We used a susceptible–infectious–recovered model to show the potential effects of relaxing containment measures after the first wave of infection, in anticipation of a possible second wave.

‘In all selected cities and provinces, the Rt decreased substantially since Jan 23, when control measures were implemented, and have since remained below 1. The cCFR outside Hubei was 0·98% (95% CI 0·82–1·16), which was almost five times lower than that in Hubei (5·91%, 5·73–6·09). Relaxing the interventions (resulting in Rt >1) when the epidemic size was still small would increase the cumulative case count exponentially as a function of relaxation duration, even if aggressive interventions could subsequently push disease prevalence back to the baseline level.’

Read here (The Lancet, April 8, 2020)

Study finds link between low Vitamin D levels in people and higher mortality and higher occurrence of Covid-19; suggests supplementation

Vitamin D has already been shown to protect against acute respiratory infections. This study aimed to assess the association between the mean levels of Vitamin D in people in various countries and (1) the mortality rate of Covid–19 and (2) the number of cases of the disease.

It finds a positive correlation and says: ‘Vitamin D levels are severely low in the ageing population especially in Spain, Italy and Switzerland. This is also the most vulnerable group of population for Covid-19’. It concludes: ‘We advise Vitamin D supplementation to protect against SARS-CoV2 infection’.

Read here (Research Square, April 8, 2020)

How are people being infected with COVID-19? A lot we still do not know

‘The new coronavirus has upended all of our usual calculus about seemingly ordinary activities. Is running past someone on the street safe? How about shopping in a grocery store with a 6-foot (2 meters) distance? And what about packages and takeout? And which of these activities poses the biggest risk?

Three types of transmission are discussed: Respiratory, aerosol and contact. ‘Unfortunately, there's a lot we still don't know about the way the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads.’

Read here (Live Science, April 7, 2020)

‘SARS-CoV-2 RNA found in air pollution particles in Italy’

’A study conducted in Italy (not yet peer reviewed) detected the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in air pollution particles. The particulate matter that contributes to air pollution can be inhaled, potentially providing an additional mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study did not evaluate the viability of the virus detected in the air pollution, nor did it assess the potential for this route of exposure to result in infection.‘

Read here (Medrxiv, April 15, 2020)