Are we losing the fight against Covid-19? – P Gunasegaram

‘With neither vaccinations to provide herd immunity nor control measures to reduce the infectivity rate, it looks like the government has indeed lost control of the fight against Covid 19, and we, the people, may have to pay the price.

‘There is a terribly urgent need to increase the vaccination rate. While this is being done, controls must be reimposed. It is a time for tough decisions, and one can only hope that this backdoor government will put politicking on the back-burner, and prioritise the last big battle against Covid-19 and minimise the damage.

‘To simply wait for vaccination to take its course and stop the pandemic may result in far too many casualties.’

Read here (The Vibes, Apr 20, 2021)

The threat that Covid-19 poses now

‘After a year of waves and surges, the pandemic is entering a “tornado” phase in America...

‘The United States is entering a new phase of the pandemic. Although we’ve previously described the most devastating periods as “waves” and “surges,” the more proper metaphor now is a tornado: Some communities won’t see the storm, others will be well fortified against disaster, and the most at-risk places will be crushed. The virus has never hit all places equally, but the remarkable protection of the vaccines, combined with the new attributes of the variants, has created a situation where the pandemic will disappear, but only in some places. The pandemic is or will soon be over for a lot of people in well-resourced, heavily vaccinated communities. In places where vaccination rates are low and risk remains high, more people will join the 550,000 who have already died.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Apr 6, 2021)

World leaders, WHO push for pandemic preparedness treaty

‘Global leaders and the World Health Organisation (WHO) are pushing for an international treaty that would boost the world's ability to respond to a future pandemic, saying it is a matter of time before the next infectious pathogen emerges.

‘The goal is to prevent a recurrence of the missteps that have dogged the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic - from the scramble for personal protective equipment at the start to current issues over the distribution of vaccines.

‘The call to establish a framework to share information, diagnostics, technology and essentials like vaccines and personal protective equipment comes as a WHO-led team published its highly anticipated findings after a mission to Wuhan, China, and concluded that Covid-19 most likely originated from bats and not a laboratory.’

Read here (Straits Times, Mar 31, 2021)

How do faithless people like me make sense of this past year of Covid?

‘Many of us yearn for meaning. But in our individualistic, secular society we lack even the flimsiest of narratives to guide us...

‘Long before Covid’s arrival, it was clear this was something too many people were losing touch with. Through decades of secularisation, cheered on by irreligious liberals, not nearly enough thought was ever given to what might take on the social roles of a church. The demise of the factory and the collectivised lives that went with it marked another loss. And now, long years of cuts have obliterated many of the shared spaces we had left, from libraries and Sure Starts to community centres.

‘The pandemic has shone unforgiving light on the consequences. A British Academy report on “the long-term societal impacts of Covid-19” found that the age group most likely to experience loneliness during the first lockdown was 16- to 24-year-olds. In the past decade, spending in England and Wales on youth services has been cut by 70%. As life after Covid unfolds, such choices will look not just reckless but downright cruel.

‘Three years ago, Anthony Costello – a former director of maternal and child health at the World Health Organization – published a book titled The Social Edge, focused on the so-called “sympathy groups” that sit between the state and the individual. “Religious or therapy groups have always offered solace and peace and relaxation and friendship,” he wrote. “They help us in our spiritual quest for meaning and wellbeing.” Church groups, choirs, sport and dance clubs, he went on, “bring harmony and relaxation to tired minds” and give people “a greater sense of being alive”.

‘Costello proposed using similar structures to tackle loneliness in old age, prisoner recidivism, “stress in motherhood” and much more. Now, in the context of Covid and its long-term social effects, this sounds like something millions of us might sooner or later need. Whatever our experiences, what we have all been through is huge. And as an act of post-pandemic healing, encouraging the growth of such initiatives would surely not be too hard. Fund and create public spaces – parks, halls, arts venues, meeting rooms – and revive the most grassroots aspects of local government, and you would create roughly the right conditions.’

Read here (The Guardian, Mar 28, 2021)

Covid-19 is different now: Our response to Covid-21 cannot be myopic

‘We are at an inflection point that will change the reality of this disease. The most insidious future is one in which we fail to change our moral benchmarks, and end up measuring the danger of COVID-21 by the standards of 2020. If wealthy countries with early access to vaccines abandon continued, global coronavirus-vaccination efforts as their cases fall or when the disease becomes milder for them, a still-severe disease could haunt the world indefinitely—and lead to rebounds everywhere.

‘Avoiding this myopia is the central challenge of COVID-21. It extends to the systemic problems highlighted by this pandemic. Much of the damage the virus has wrought has come indirectly, by exacerbating food and housing insecurity, for example, or restricting access to medical care. The Biden administration has elevated science and begun to focus on comprehensive approaches to prevention. No longer is federal leadership hawking hydroxychloroquine, suggesting injections with “disinfectant,” or stoking xenophobic sentiment. But this sudden sense of order is a beginning, not an end.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Mar 27, 2021)

Cuban socialist internationalist medicine puts capitalist countries to shame: Black Agenda Radio with Margaret Kimberley and Glen Ford

‘So few of its own citizens have [died from] Covid-19 – less than 300 — that Cuba must test its vaccines in other countries, said Dr Layla Brown-Vincent, professor of Africana Studies at the University of Massachusetts at Boston and author of “The Pandemic of Racial Capitalism: Another World is Possible.” Cuba “is helping control this global pandemic in ways that none of the capitalist countries attempt to do,” said Brown-Vincent.’

Listen here (Defend Democracy Press, Mar 22, 2021)

Covid: The countries that nailed it, and what we can learn from them

‘I have reported on Covid for the past year - now my mission was to find out from global leaders and senior health officials across four continents what their priorities were in tackling the virus.

‘What has emerged strongly for me are four key areas which have been most effective in containing the spread of the virus and preventing deaths.

• Early and effective action to control borders and monitoring of arrivals
• Testing, tracking and tracing everyone suspected of being infected
• Welfare support for those in quarantine to contain the virus
• Effective leadership and consistent and timely public messaging

Read here (BBC, Mar 22, 2021)

How Taiwan triumphed over Covid as the UK faltered

‘Taiwan’s leaders, helped perhaps by having an epidemiologist as vice-president, perhaps by its experience of the outbreak of the Sars coronavirus in 2003, recognised the terrible threat posed by Covid-19, even as the earliest data trickled in. They decided the only way to protect their country, its people and economy, was to keep the virus out.

‘Britain, by contrast, made the catastrophic decision to treat the disease as akin to flu, aiming to limit its spread rather than stamp it out, said Jay Patel, a Covid-19 researcher at Edinburgh who studies comparative approaches to the pandemic worldwide. “Their playbook to begin with was different,” he said.’

Read here (Defend Democracy Press, Mar 21, 2021)

The scene from Cuba: How it’s getting so much right on Covid-19

‘As the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately harms underprivileged people globally, Cuba’s “people over profit” approach has been saving many lives — both on the island and abroad. From the onset, Cuba’s approach has been holistic and integrated.

‘Its response is among the most respected in the world. Widespread confidence in the Cuban government’s science-based policies, public service media messaging and volunteerism are key reasons as to why Cuba has been able to control the viral reproduction rate until mass vaccination begins.

‘The cash-strapped Caribbean island risked opening to holiday visitors at the end of 2020 and is currently managing higher COVID-19 caseloads than ever before. Its health experts are combining international clinical trials of its vaccine candidates with mass production. Cuba is the only Latin American country with the capacity to manufacture a vaccine domestically other than Brazil, which is not doing so. Cuba aims to protect its populace, then give away or sell its vaccines abroad.’

Read here (The Conversation, Mar 17, 2021)

Why the pandemic experts failed: We’re still thinking about pandemic data in the wrong ways

‘Not until early May, when the CDC published its own deeply inadequate data dashboard, did we realize the depth of its ignorance. And when the White House reproduced one of our charts, it confirmed our fears: The government was using our data. For months, the American government had no idea how many people were sick with COVID-19, how many were lying in hospitals, or how many had died. And the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic, started as a temporary volunteer effort, had become a de facto source of pandemic data for the United States.

‘After spending a year building one of the only U.S. pandemic-data sources, we have come to see the government’s initial failure here as the fault on which the entire catastrophe pivots. The government has made progress since May; it is finally able to track pandemic data. Yet some underlying failures remain unfixed. The same calamity could happen again.

‘Data might seem like an overly technical obsession, an oddly nerdy scapegoat on which to hang the deaths of half a million Americans. But data are how our leaders apprehend reality. In a sense, data are the federal government’s reality. As a gap opened between the data that leaders imagined should exist and the data that actually did exist, it swallowed the country’s pandemic planning and response.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Mar 16, 2021)

How the US pandemic response went wrong — and what went right — during a year of Covid

‘Among the biggest shocks was that the U.S. fared worse than most other countries, with more than 29 million cases and nearly 530,000 deaths as of this writing. “We absolutely can’t say that we had the most robust response to the pandemic, up till this point, because we have had a higher death rate per capita than so many other places,” says Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

‘As the country raced to react to this new and terrifying scourge, mistakes were made that together cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Yet the tireless efforts of health care workers, along with an unprecedented vaccine push, have saved countless others. Scientific American interviewed scientists and public health experts about the biggest mistakes in the U.S.’s response, some of the key successes and the lingering questions that still need to be answered.’

Read here (Scientific American, Mar 11, 2021)

Sg Buloh Hospital: Lessons from frontline of country's main Covid-19 centre

‘Sungai Buloh Hospital (HSB) had been at the forefront of the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic since the day the virus was detected on our shores. Serving as the main dedicated Covid-19 centre, it has treated nearly 50,000 positive patients to date.

‘While the hospital had been successful in helping the country battle the outbreak, little is known about what has been happening behind the scenes, especially the struggles faced by frontliners who had dedicated their lives for the sake of their patients.

‘Malaysiakini spoke to HSB director Dr Kuldip Kaur (above) in an exclusive interview recently, during which she revealed some of the biggest challenges they faced.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, Mar 9, 2021)

The Nightingale alternative: Cast out fear in favour of love

‘According to Miss Nightingale: “True nursing ignores infection, except to prevent it. Cleanliness and fresh air from open windows, with unremitting attention to the patient, are the only defence a true nurse either asks or needs. Wise and humane management of the patient is the best safeguard against infection.”

‘Tell that to those who decided that old people already suffering from life-threatening complaints should be shut away for months on end, deprived of free movement in the open air and of the contact they crave with those they love!

‘And what would a woman who remarked, “How very little can be done under the spirit of fear!” have thought of the deliberate incitement of terror which has been the hallmark of public policy in the UK for the past eleven months?

‘What would her opinion have been of a government that splashes out apparently unlimited sums of public money on fear-inducing propaganda, with the aim of increasing “the perceived level of personal threat…using hard-hitting emotional messaging”?

‘A Nightingale approach to Covid, and to all infections, would allow us to cast out fear in favour of love, resolving the present conflict between concern for public health and the moral imperatives which should always take precedence over panicked speculation.

‘It would, however, be exceedingly inconvenient for those currently seizing the chance to impose their anti-human agendas on humanity, under cover of a pandemic.’

Read here (OffGuardian, Mar 7, 2021) 

Coronavirus crisis unlikely to be over by the end of the year, WHO warns

‘Despite the spread of Covid-19 being slowed in some countries due to lockdowns and vaccination programs, it is “premature” and “unrealistic” to the think the pandemic will be over by the end of the year, the World Health Organization’s executive director of emergency services has said.

‘Speaking at a press briefing Geneva, Dr Michael Ryan said while vaccinating the most vulnerable people, including healthcare workers, would help remove the “tragedy and fear” from the situation, and would help to ease pressure on hospitals, the “virus is very much in control”.’

Read here (The Guardian, Mar 2, 2021) 

100,000 deaths and a White Paper: What we need instead in Britain

‘We must refuse to engage on this paltry terrain. The pandemic, and the government’s abject failure to respond to it, should prompt a radical set of popular demands. Not since 1948 has there been such overwhelming public support for the NHS, or for the medical scientists and public health experts without whose knowledge and warnings even more lives would have been lost. In this context, and in recognition of how close we have come to an even greater disaster, we must reject this tinkering with the status quo.

‘Integration’ has served as a useful cover for Simon Stevens’s dismantling of the Lansley competition-based model, but it is a perverse misnomer for what the white paper proposes to embody in law. True integration is incompatible with a system of in-built conflicts of interest. Decisions about service provision need to be clearly accountable both to Parliament, and locally, to the public, neither of which is the case in what is proposed. Integration of healthcare with social care is indeed also needed, but is only possible if social care also becomes a public service. And neither this, nor adequate funding for the NHS, is ‘unaffordable’, especially while real interest rates are negative. What is unaffordable is to face the next pandemic as unprotected as we were for COVID-19.’

Read here (The Bullet, Mar 2, 2021)

The raging evolutionary war between humans and Covid-19

‘Fighting the pandemic isn’t only about vaccines and drugs. It’s about understanding how viruses mutate and change inside us, and among us...

‘The major change to the immunity of all the hosts SARS-CoV-2 is likely to try to infect will be, of course, vaccination. That’s human ingenuity fighting viral expertise, but it can also exert a kind of direct adaptive pressure on the virus. History has examples of so-called leaky vaccines—those that aren’t effective enough to prevent all infections or all transmission, and allow better-adapted variants of whatever bug they’re trying to squish to live to fight another day.

‘In fact, one group of researchers has a model that suggests that could even happen with the new batch of vaccines against Covid—especially those that require two doses and seem to confer different levels of immunity depending on how far apart they’re administered, or whether someone skips the second one. Here's how: If one extreme is a population totally naive to a new virus, completely vulnerable and with no immunity, and the other extreme is a population with perfect sterilizing immunity, what happens to a population in between? If a vaccine allows infection but no transmission, the virus doesn’t have a chance to evolve.

‘But if a vaccine or vaccination strategy allows some infection and some transmission? “The ones that are the best at getting around the host’s defenses are the ones that are most likely to persist,” says Caroline Wagner, a bioengineer at McGill and one of the people working on the model. If that’s all true, a leaky vaccine or leaky vaccination strategy could actually drive antigenic drift and create even worse variants. Wagner and her colleagues acknowledge that they don’t have enough data to put bounds on their model yet, but they worry about strategies like one proposed in the UK to abandon second doses as a way of speeding the process and husbanding scarce vaccine, or the way some countries are hoarding vaccine while others go without (potentially letting the virus, and variants, circulate and evolve freely).’

Read here (Wired, Mar 1, 2021)

We’re just rediscovering a 19th-century pandemic strategy

‘The first way to fight a new virus would once have been opening the windows...

‘Miasma theory—discredited, of course, by the rise of germ theory—held that disease came from “bad air” emanating from decomposing matter and filth. This idea peaked in the 19th century, when doctors, architects, and one particularly influential nurse, Florence Nightingale, became fixated on ventilation’s importance for health. It manifested in the physical layout of buildings: windows, many of them, but also towers erected for the sole purpose of ventilation and elaborate ductwork to move contaminated air outdoors. Historic buildings still bear the vestigial mark of these public-health strategies, long after the scientific thinking has moved on.

‘That era saw the rise of well-ventilated “Nightingale pavilions,” named after Florence Nightingale, who popularized the design in her 1859 book, Notes on Hospitals. As a nurse in the Crimean War, she saw 10 times more soldiers die of disease than of battle wounds. Nightingale began a massive hygiene campaign in the overcrowded hospitals, and she collected statistics, which she presented in pioneering infographics. Chief among her concerns was air. Notes even laid out exact proportions for 20-patient pavilions that could allow 1,600 cubic feet of air per bed.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Feb 22, 2021)

What Europeans have learned from a year of pandemic

‘From the first case diagnosed a year ago at a hospital in northern Italy to the empty shops, restaurants and stadiums of Europe's cities, the lives of Europeans have been changed forever. Curbs on movement have forced every country and society to adapt its rules and rethink its culture. There have been hard truths and unexpected innovations in a year that changed Europe.

• Restrictions are tough for societies used to freedom
• Experts are essential, but mistakes have been made
• The EU wasn't set up for a pan-European health crisis
• Societies have responded in different ways
• A Europe without borders is fine in theory
• Hard truths about how we slaughter animals
• Europeans embraced lifestyle change in different ways

Read here (BBC, Feb 20, 2021)

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means

‘In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come (see 'Endemic future')...

‘More than one-third of the respondents to Nature’s survey thought that it would be possible to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from some regions while it continued to circulate in others. In zero-COVID regions there would be a continual risk of disease outbreaks, but they could be quenched quickly by herd immunity if most people had been vaccinated.’ 

Read here (Nature, Feb 16, 2021)

Coronavirus: Is the pandemic finally coming to an end in India?

‘By the middle of last week, India was barely counting an average of 10,000 Covid cases every day. The seven-day rolling average of daily deaths from the disease slid to below 100. More than half of India's states were not reporting any Covid deaths. On Tuesday, Delhi, once an infection hotspot, did not record a single Covid death, for the first time in 10 months.

‘So far, India has recorded more than 10 million infections - the second-highest in the world after the US. There have been over 150,000 reported deaths from the disease. The number of deaths per million people stands at 112, much lower than what has been reported in Europe or North America. It is also clear that the decline in cases is not because of lower testing.

‘Most pandemics typically rise and fall in a bell-shaped curve. India has been no exception. Also, it has seen a high proportion of cases and deaths of people above the age of 65 living in densely packed cities, hewing to infection trends around the world. "There's nothing unusual about infections dropping in India. There's no miracle here," says Dr Shahid Jameel, a leading virologist. Experts say there's no dearth of possible causes - explained below - for the relatively low severity of the disease and its toll.’

Read here (BBC, Feb 15, 2021)