How did Britain get its coronavirus response so wrong? Three factors

Lack of long-term planning and ignoring experts: ‘When the investigations into the UK’s response to Covid-19 come to be written, there is widespread recognition among experts that this lack of long-term strategic planning will be at the centre of it. So too should be the need to ensure that the views of experts are fed into government more efficiently and widely.

Going on its own: ‘Britain was still doing quite well in containing the disease by testing, tracing contact and setting up quarantine for those suspected of being infected with Covid-19 at this time [February]. “Then, in March, the government decided to abandon this approach and shift from containing the disease to delaying its progress,” says Wingfield. “I would really like to know why the decision to give up testing and contact tracing was taken.”

Absence of social memory of epidemics: ‘One conclusion that experts are already drawing is that it was those countries close to China, with memories of Sars, or cultural ties to their neighbour, which were much faster to act in response to Covid-19. Perhaps most notable in its success was Taiwan...’

Read here (The Guardian, April 18, 2020)

Stanford study finds presence of Covid-19 may be 50 to 85 times higher than official figures

‘The study [not peer reviewed yet] has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.

‘The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.’

Read here (The Guardian, April 17, 2020)

Swedish epidemiologist Johan Giesecke‘s forthright views on Covid-19

In this 34-minute interview, Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

1. UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based 
2. The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only 
3. This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product” 
4. The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better 
5. The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact 
6. The paper was very much too pessimistic 
7. Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway 
8. The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown 
9. The results will eventually be similar for all countries 
10. Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. 
11. The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% 
12. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

View here (LockdownTV, Youtube, April 17, 2020)

Manifesto for post-neoliberal development: Five policy strategies for the Netherlands after the Covid-19 crisis

‘The Manifesto calls the Dutch Government to implement five key policy strategies for moving forward during and after the Covid-19 crisis:

• A move away from “development” focused on aggregate GDP growth;
• An economic framework focused on redistribution;
• Transformation towards regenerative agriculture;
• Reduction of consumption and travel; and
• Debt cancellation.

‘This Manifesto brings to the forefront some fundamental concerns of degrowth scholars and activists, and shows that these concerns are close to the hearts and minds of many academics who may not (yet) see themselves as part of the degrowth community. Particularly relevant is the link between economic development, the loss of biodiversity and important ecosystem functions, and the opportunity for diseases like COVID-19 to spread among humans. The Manifesto proposes policies that, as research tells us, are critical for a more sustainable, equal and diverse society - one that can better prevent and deal with shocks, including climate change related ones, and pandemics to come.’

Read here (Ontgroei, April 16, 2020)

Related:

Use crisis to make post corona society fairer and sustainable, say scientists. Read here

For the record -- Beyond containment: Health systems responses to COVID-19 in the OECD

‘Health systems are facing the most serious global pandemic crisis in a century. Containing and mitigating the spread and infection rate of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is the first priority of public health authorities to distribute the number of infections over time and, if possible, reduce the incidence of the disease it causes (COVID-19). However, beyond containment, additional measures - operational, financial, and R&D - are needed to provide effective patient care and reduce the pressure on health systems to manageable levels. The main focus of this brief is on the policies aimed at providing effective care and managing the pressure on health systems.

‘Four key measures health systems are putting in place in response to the epidemic are considered: 1) ensuring access of the vulnerable to diagnostics and treatment; 2) strengthening and optimising health system capacity to respond to the rapid increase in caseloads; 3) how to leverage digital solutions and data to improve surveillance and care; and 4) how to improve R&D for accelerated development of diagnostics, treatments and vaccines.’

https://oecd.dam-broadcast.com/pm_7379_119_119689-ud5comtf84.pdf

Download here (OECD, April 16, 2020)

Media freedom and fake news during the time of Covid-19

The likening of the fight against Covid-19 to a war should neither be a rationale for war-time measures, nor a free hand to muzzle the media and impinge on individual free speech. With new normals being expected, these normals must include a free media coupled with better protected free speech rights.

Read here (ISIS Malaysia, April 15, 2020)

Reflexivity in the age of pandemia: Adaptive policy making and the Covid-19 crisis

The authors argue that ’the current tendency of using the war metaphor is not the way to respond. Such a metaphor is useful to mobilise and rally people around a short-term external threat. But it is also the root cause for the chaos we are experiencing now – the lack of government preparedness despite having experienced similar events such as the ‘Spanish’ Flu, SARS or the Zika virus epidemic throughout the last century. The war metaphor masks the fact that the threat of pandemic is a long game requiring a more complex response at the local, national and global levels of society.

’We require far-reaching changes to the way we design and organise our cities and supply chains, and a rethinking of the way we interact and transact as a global society. Arundhati Roy wrote recently that, “Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew.” In this paper, we argue that such a response would require reshaping policy making around the concept of reflexivity and made operational through an adaptive policy making approach.’

Read further and download here (Think City, April 2020)

Malaysia's response to Covid-19 ranked fourth strictest in South East Asia

‘Malaysia's Covid-19 response is the fourth strictest among South-East Asian countries as of Friday, according to the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government. Malaysia is ranked fourth in Asean after Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines.

‘A higher position in the Stringency Index, however, does not necessarily mean that a country's response is “better” than others lower on the index, according to the Blavatnik School of Government.

‘The score is based on measurements of seven response indicators. They include policies such as school and workplace closures, travel bans, public event cancellations, public transport closures, public information campaigns and movement restrictions. Other six measures gauged by the tracker include fiscal or monetary measures, investment in vaccines, Covid-19 testing framework and contact tracing measures.’

Read here (The Star, April 12, 2020)

Verena Friederike Hasel: NZ's Covid-19 coronavirus response ‘extraordinary’

‘At first glance, corona seems to be an example of a wicked problem: a question that causes a dilemma because there are legitimate but conflicting interests at work. It is either people's health or the economy that will suffer. But the response of the New Zealand Government shows there need not be a contradiction. The more seriously you take the virus itself, the more quickly you can tackle the economic recovery.’

Read here (NZ Herald, April 11, 2020)

Cruising ban now extended for months! What you need to know

COMMENT: This will affect all industries related to tourism and hospitality. The hotel and travel industries in general may learn a bit from the 7 requirements to address before the cruising ban will be lifted. 

‘On 9 April 2020, the USA CDC (Center for Disease Control) issued an updated “no-sail cruise ban” for cruise lines and ships operating in and out of USA ports and waters. This strong ruling suggests cruising will be prohibited in and out of the USA until at least 18 July 2020, and probably longer. The lift of the cruise ban is also subject to the CDC agreeing cruise lines proposal on how to address at least 7 major areas and issues, which could significantly change the facilities and way that cruising operates. In this video, I explore the ban including (1) how long the order looks to ban cruising, (2) why they are taking such a strong stance and (3) the 7 things that cruising have to address and convince them on before the cruising ban will be lifted.’

View here (Tips for Travellers, Youtube, April 10, 2020)

Hong Kong’s edge over Singapore shows early social distancing works

‘The diverging outcomes in Hong Kong and Singapore -- which are still handling the virus far better than many other advanced economies -- show how early and strict social distancing measures may be more beneficial to the economy over the long term. In Europe and the US, politicians are now mulling lifting lockdowns to revive their economies, even as health experts caution against relaxing too soon.’

Read here (Bloomberg, April 10, 2020)

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary. There is no plan to return to normal

‘Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

‘I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.’

Read here (Vox, April 10, 2020)

Kerala’s Covid-19 approach: Less disruptive, less costly and more effective than most others

‘Some key features of Kerala’s response, undertaken by a government with very limited fiscal resources, are instructive:

1. All-of-government approach: involving a range of relevant state government ministries and agencies to design measures to improve consistency, coordination and communication, and to avoid confusion.
2. Whole-of-society approach: wide community consultations, including experts, to find the most locally appropriate modes of limiting infections, along with means to monitor and enforce them.
3. Social mobilisation: communities were provided essential epidemiological information to understand the threat and related issues, ensure compliance with prescribed precautionary measures, and avoid panic.
4. No one left behind: adequate supply of essential commodities, particularly food and medicines, has been ensured, especially to protect the most vulnerable sections of society.’

Read here (IPS News, April 9, 2020)

“If you insist on every single contractual right... that will suck the life out of the economy”

Singapore passed a new bill that gives temporary relief to businesses and individuals if they are unable to fulfill their contractual obligations due to the coronavirus outbreak such as paying rent. “If you insist on your minutest every single contractual right at this point, that will suck the life out of the economy. You have got to protect everyone,” Singapore’s minister for home affairs, K Shanmugam said.

Read here (CNBC, April 8, 2020)

Amartya Sen: Overcoming a pandemic may look like fighting a war, but the real need is far from that

‘Tackling a social calamity is not like fighting a war which works best when a leader can use top-down power to order everyone to do what the leader wants — with no need for consultation. In contrast, what is needed for dealing with a social calamity is participatory governance and alert public discussion.’

Read here (Indian Express, April 8, 2020)

Towards a market structure that serves the greater good

‘This crisis lays bare the myth of the invincibility of the market. Market has broken down in a big way and the state is asked to step in to solve this crisis – from bail out of companies, to paying wages of workers, to cutting interest rates, soft and loans to small business guaranteed by the state etc.

‘Markets will continue to exist and play a part in the economy. But it must be subordinated to society, to be regulated by the state to serve a greater good. For market to function well as a public good, it must not only be free but also fair. Both attributes are equally important, like the two wings of birds. The new economy must prioritise people’s as well as nature’s wellbeing over profit making for a few.’

Read here (IPS News, April 6, 2020)

Decentralisation is helping Germany beat Covid-19

‘German public health services are provided not by one central authority but by approximately 400 public health offices, run by municipality and rural district administrations.

‘Such an environment allows for a variety of laboratories – some attached to universities or hospitals, others privately run, medium-sized businesses – which act largely autonomously of central control.’

Read here (The Guardian, April 5, 2020)

18 lessons of urban quarantine urbanism

This is a most succinct and informed piece of communication on our present predicament and what we could/should do.

‘To what world will we reemerge after the distress and devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic? Calling for a geopolitics based on a deliberate plan for the coordination of the planet, design theorist and The Terraforming Program Director Benjamin H. Bratton looks at the underlying causes of the current crisis and identifies important lessons to be learned from it.’

Read here (Strelkamag, April 4, 2020)

Making the invisible visible: Faces of poverty in Malaysia revealed under the MCO

This article, by Bridget Welsh and Calvin Cheng, is written in the context of the current movement control order (MCO) as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak. It concludes:

‘Moving ahead, a serious rethink of how to address vulnerabilities and the poor is needed, beyond cash transfers of assistance and other immediate relief measures. The poor as a whole need to be recognised and disaggregated, with more attention to how to treat those facing the most serious hardships. A key step is to start getting the numbers right and to stop leaving out the many different groups being affected.

‘Practically, a task force can be set up to look at different sets of policies that are more holistic in addressing needs and causes along the various dimensions, with greater collaboration with NGOs, academics and international organisations, notably United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). This will allow for better targeting of available limited resources, offer opportunities to find new resources and importantly, allow for the framing of sound policies that will not just ameliorate problems caused by Covid-19, but also work to address the underlying social conditions that will inevitably worsen as the economy contracts.

‘A crucial part of the way forward is to make the reality of poverty more visible.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, April 4, 2020)

Shockwave: Adam Tooze on the pandemic’s consequences for the world economy

This lengthy essay begins by painting the economic background of this crisis, covering the weaknesses of the globalised system and its over-dependence on government stimulus post-2008. There were detractors though. ‘True conservatives, as distinct from those merely wedded to the religion of the stock market, welcomed the prospect of a shakeout. It was time for a purge, time to slim down the businesses that had gorged on too much cheap funding, time for a return to discipline." However, as we know, it was not to be.

When Covid-19 hit, the three main economic blocs responded, strapped to the underpinnings of their own socio-economic systems. Many East Asian countries, notably China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, employed ‘the hammer and the dance’ by hitting the virus hard and fast. Europe ended up in an uncoordinated and dispiriting stalemate. ‘From the point of view of the wider world, what matters is that Europe does not unleash a sovereign debt crisis.’ In the US, ‘more than the flame-out of Trump, is the gulf between the competence of the American government machine in managing global finance and the Punch and Judy show of its politics. That tension has been more and more glaring since at least the 1990s, but the virus has exposed it as never before.’

‘If you swiftly declare an emergency and are prepared to interrupt business as usual, both the medical and economic costs of confronting the virus appear more reasonable, and the conventional priorities of modern politics remain basically in place... As the Europeans and Americans have discovered, once you lose control all the options are bad: shut down the economy for an unforeseeable duration, or hundreds of thousands die.’

Tooze concludes that ‘for those of us in Europe and America these questions [about opening up] are premature. The worst is just beginning.’

Read here (London Review of Books, April 3, 2020)