The new astrology: By fetishising mathematical models, economists turned economics into a highly paid pseudoscience

‘Nonetheless, surveys indicate that economists see their discipline as ‘the most scientific of the social sciences’. What is the basis of this collective faith, shared by universities, presidents and billionaires? Shouldn’t successful and powerful people be the first to spot the exaggerated worth of a discipline, and the least likely to pay for it?

‘In the hypothetical worlds of rational markets, where much of economic theory is set, perhaps. But real-world history tells a different story, of mathematical models masquerading as science and a public eager to buy them, mistaking elegant equations for empirical accuracy.’

[Note: This is an old article published April 4, 2016. We should read this in the context of the epidemiological modelling being used now to forecast Covid-19.]

Read here (Aeon, April 4, 2016)

The Thucydides Trap: Are the US and China headed for war? (written in 2015)

‘But if anyone’s forecasts are worth heeding, it’s those of Lee Kuan Yew, the world’s premier China watcher and a mentor to Chinese leaders since Deng Xiaoping. Before his death in March, the founder of Singapore put the odds of China continuing to grow at several times U.S. rates for the next decade and beyond as “four chances in five.” On whether China’s leaders are serious about displacing the United States as the top power in Asia in the foreseeable future, Lee answered directly: “Of course. Why not … how could they not aspire to be number one in Asia and in time the world?” And about accepting its place in an international order designed and led by America, he said absolutely not: “China wants to be China and accepted as such—not as an honorary member of the West.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Sept 24, 2015)

Case for wearing face masks (1): People who wore masks during the SARS outbreak had a 70% lower risk of being diagnosed compared with those who never wore masks

‘We also used this investigation to quantify the impact of behaviours (i.e. mask wearing, handwashing) that were promoted to reduce the risk for SARS. Wearing masks outside the home in a reference period corresponding to the 2 weeks before symptom onset for cases was significantly protective against clinical SARS.

‘Supporting the validity of this finding, there was a dose-response effect: by multivariable analysis, persons who always wore masks had a 70% lower risk of being diagnosed with clinical SARS compared with those who never wore masks, and persons with intermittent mask use had a 60% lower risk.’

Read here (NIH, 2004)