This long article discusses the near-term effects, end-game and aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis in the US. It concludes that the lessons that America draws from this experience are hard to predict but there could be two extreme scenarios, with many variations in between. As the most powerful socio-economic and political entity in the world, whichever path it takes, it will affect the entire world.
NEGATIVE ENGAGEMENT: ‘One could easily conceive of a world in which most of the nation believes that America defeated COVID-19. Despite his many lapses, Trump’s approval rating has surged. Imagine that he succeeds in diverting blame for the crisis to China, casting it as the villain and America as the resilient hero. During the second term of his presidency, the U.S. turns further inward and pulls out of NATO and other international alliances, builds actual and figurative walls, and disinvests in other nations. As Gen C grows up, foreign plagues replace communists and terrorists as the new generational threat.’
POSITIVE ENGAGEMENT: ‘One could also envisage a future in which America learns a different lesson. A communal spirit, ironically born through social distancing, causes people to turn outward, to neighbours both foreign and domestic. The election of November 2020 becomes a repudiation of “America first” politics. The nation pivots, as it did after World War II, from isolationism to international cooperation. Buoyed by steady investments and an influx of the brightest minds, the health-care workforce surges. Gen C kids write school essays about growing up to be epidemiologists. Public health becomes the centerpiece of foreign policy. The US leads a new global partnership focused on solving challenges like pandemics and climate change.’
Read here (The Atlantic, March 25, 2020)
