‘Vaccine announcements get the globe closer to eradicating the virus, but questions still remain. Business leaders will need to consider a range of potential scenarios for access and distribution to adjust to the changes still ahead. For business planning only, Salesforce Future Lab developed a selection of hypothetical scenarios in discussions with leading experts to help leaders understand the range of scenarios for which they might need to plan.’
Hypothetical Scenario 1: “Zero Hurdles” -- In this scenario, business leaders could look forward to the crisis ending as quickly and evenly as possible around the world. In-person work and consumer confidence could come back close to pre-crisis levels over the summer and fall of 2021, though masking, distancing, and ventilation would still be necessary for many more months.
Hypothetical Scenario 2: “Sprint and Stumble” -- In this scenario, many business leaders might initially make investments betting on a rapid re-emergence from crisis conditions, only to be surprised as optimism evaporates. As the crisis stretched on, those who recognized the continuing risk would likely be in the best position, but even they would still face stiff economic headwinds.
Hypothetical Scenario 3: “Long March” -- In this scenario, business leaders could be increasingly challenged to maintain the safety of their staff and customers before the vaccine arrives, as the public becomes less willing to adhere to public health guidance. But after its arrival, the impact is similar to “Zero Hurdles” above, with a relatively rapid return to workplace safety and consumer confidence.
Read here (World Economic Forum, Nov 25, 2020)
