Worst ever Covid variant? Omicron

John Campbell shares his findings on Omicron. 

View here (Youtube, Nov 27, 2021)

What do we know about the new ‘worst ever’ Covid variant?

‘Scientists have detected a new Covid-19 variant called B.1.1.529 and are working to understand its potential implications. About 100 confirmed cases have been identified in South Africa, Hong Kong, Israel and Botswana.

‘B.1.1.529 has a very unusual constellation of mutations, which are worrying because they could help it evade the body’s immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists have said. Any new variant that is able to evade vaccines or spread faster than the now-dominant Delta variant may pose a significant threat as the world emerges from the pandemic.

‘Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser to the UK Health Security Agency, said the R value, or effective reproduction number, of the B.1.1.529 variant in the South African province of Gauteng, where it was first found, was now 2 – a level of transmission not recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, before restrictions began to be imposed. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially.’

Read here (The Guardian, Nov 26, 2021)

Covid-19 numbers can create public confusion over outcomes for the vaccinated

Simpler, clearer indicators can help the public interpret the sea of data on COVID-19 and avoid cognitive biases, says Duke-NUS’ David Matchar...

Read here (Channel News Asia, Nov 26, 2021)

Drop in cases in Japan: Ivermectin, nsp14 and/or APOBEC3A?

John Campbell shares three theories on sudden drop of Covid-19 cases in Japan: (1) Ivermectin allowed as a treatment on August 13, two weeks before the precipitous drop in cases (2) Ituro Inoue, professor, National Institute of Genetics, on the virus’s error-correcting protein, nsp14 (3) More people in Asia have a defense enzyme called APOBEC3A that attacks RNA viruses, including the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. 

View here (Youtube, Nov 24, 2021)

The good, the bad, the ugly: What went wrong during India’s Covid-19 response

‘According to our village-level digital entrepreneurs in the SoochnaPreneur programme at Digital Empowerment Foundation (DEF), the four essential systems that were massively hit by the pandemic were education, healthcare, finance, and citizen entitlements. When the pandemic was raging, our SoochnaPreneurs reported that all people wanted was food and rations, a device to access online education for their children, the ability to talk to a doctor or health worker to learn how to keep themselves safe, and to make some money to meet their daily needs from the confines of their homes. Ironically, given the stringent nature of the lockdowns, all this needed access to the internet.

‘However, across the country, lack of access to resources, high levels of digital illiteracy, and the deepening digital divide exacerbated by the pandemic acted as major roadblocks in India’s COVID-19 response. Even as the government announced relief packages—food grains and cash payments—the mechanisms of delivery to beneficiaries at the last mile were unclear.’

Read here (IPS New, Nov 23 2021)

Could mRNA make us superhuman?

‘Until recently most people had never even heard of mRNA vaccines. Now scientists believe they may be the key to solving a wealth of health problems...

‘The theory behind the mRNA vaccine was pioneered by University of Pennsylvania scientists Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, who both recently received the 2021 Lasker Award, America's top biomedical research prize. Even in 2019, however, mainstream mRNA vaccines were believed to be at least five years away. The pandemic fast-forwarded this field of medicine by half a decade. Kathryn Whitehead, an associate professor of chemical engineering and biomedical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, and a key collaborator of Weissman and Karikó admits, "there weren't many people in the mRNA therapeutics world who would have imagined 95% initial efficacy rates in this emergency scenario".

‘But now, the possibilities are seemingly endless. Or, as Blakney puts it: "Now it's like, OK, so it's worked for a viral glycoprotein, what other vaccines can we make with it? And what can we do beyond that?"... 

‘All this raises the question: could mRNA therapeutics give us almost superhuman immunity? Already Covid-19 mRNA vaccines lead some people to produce very high levels of antibodies, able to neutralise several variants of Covid-19 at once. 

‘There's also the potential to mix various mRNA vaccines together into a single health booster vaccine, which could ward off cancers and viruses at the same time. While it's just speculation at present, Fu says, "you could take a whole bunch of different flavours… a cocktail of mRNAs that make different proteins selective for your particular need." Both Moderna and Novavax already have combined Covid-19 and flu vaccines in development.’

Read here (BBC, Nov 23, 2021)

A tale of two pandemics: the true cost of Covid in the global south

‘As the climate crisis was telling us long before Covid blared the message, what happens in one place can have repercussions in many places. That’s why the pandemic must be understood not as an anvil-from-the-sky medical crisis, but as something far more encompassing. “Science is the exit strategy,” the head of the Wellcome Trust famously said, early in the pandemic. But, though science is necessary, it’s hardly sufficient, particularly when we’re interested not simply in exit but in re-entry. As raucous, inward-turned nationalisms continue to claim followers, we’ll need to resist the go-it-alone fantasies of autarky. Rather, a post-pandemic era calls for a richer sense of our mutual obligations.’

Read here (The Guardian, Nov 23, 2021)

Covid raises risk of stillbirth, new research finds. What to know about vaccines during pregnancy

‘In September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended "urgent action" be taken to get pregnant people, and those who want to be pregnant in the future, vaccinated against COVID-19. The alert was issued after mounting evidence demonstrated how COVID-19 affected the outcomes of pregnancy and the overall health of the pregnant person. As of mid-September, only 31% of pregnant people were vaccinated against COVID-19 -- a much lower rate than the general US adult population -- but they had a 70% increased risk of dying from symptomatic COVID-19 compared to people who weren't pregnant. 

‘Now, research is showing that pregnant people with COVID-19 have a higher risk of their baby being stillborn, according to a November report by the CDC. While the overall rate of stillbirths was low from March 2020 to September 2021, people who had COVID-19 during their delivery had a 1.26% chance of stillbirth, compared to people without COVID-19 at .64% -- roughly double the risk. This risk was even higher, the CDC said, during the months the delta variant was circulating.’

Read here (CNET, Nov 23, 2021)

Experts question relevance of SafeEntry, TraceTogether amid endemic Covid-19

‘Infectious diseases experts have questioned the need for continued widespread enforcement of TraceTogether and SafeEntry rules as Singapore moves towards more targeted contact tracing and living with endemic Covid-19. They noted that while daily new cases continue to number in the thousands, the vast majority of the population eligible for vaccination – 94 per cent – is fully vaccinated and most will show mild or no symptoms if infected. Extensive contact tracing, as was done in the early days of the pandemic, is no longer practical or necessary, they added.’

Read here (Straits Times, Nov 22, 2021)

New research suggests Delta strain ‘drove itself to extinction’ in Japan

‘According to a “potentially revolutionary” theory put forward by Professor Ituro Inoue, a genetics expert, the Delta variant simply accumulated too many mutations to the virus’s error-correcting protein called nsp14. Prof Inoue says the virus struggled to repair the errors in time and ultimately caused its own “self-destruction”.

Read here (News.com.au, Nov 22, 2021)

New study supports natural origins of Covid-19, sources close to WHO team say

‘The virus that causes COVID-19 likely jumped from animals to humans at the Huanan wet market in Wuhan, China, according to a landmark new analysis by evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey published in the journal Science. Worobey’s article is another nail in the coffin of the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory, concocted by the fascist ideologue Stephen K. Bannon and promoted by the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal.

“It is yet another piece of data that points to the so-called ‘natural’ origin in the wildlife farms and market system,” said a source close to an earlier WHO-China joint study on the origins of COVID-19.’

Read here (Defend Democracy Press, Nov 20, 2021)

Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids Covid disaster

“We went into this project thinking we would see a higher rate of negative outcomes in people with a history of malaria infections because that’s what was seen in patients co-infected with malaria and Ebola,” said Jane Achan, a senior research advisor at the Malaria Consortium and a co-author of the study. “We were actually quite surprised to see the opposite — that malaria may have a protective effect.”

‘Achan said this may suggest that past infection with malaria could “blunt” the tendency of people’s immune systems to go into overdrive when they are infected with COVID-19. The research was presented Friday at a meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.’

Read here (Associated Press, Nov 20, 2021)

Risk of stillbirth has risen for women with Covid-19, CDC study shows

‘Pregnant women who tested positive for Covid-19 when admitted to a hospital to give birth were at a greater risk for stillbirth compared to those who did not, according to a study released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control on Friday, with risks rising more since the delta variant has become the dominant strain.’

Read here (Forbes, Nov 19, 2021)

Read CDC report here.

Dissecting the early Covid-19 cases in Wuhan: Michael Worobey

‘With SARS, live-animal markets continued to sell infected animals for many months, allowing zoonotic spillover to be established as the origin and revealing multiple independent jumps from animals into humans. Unfortunately, no live mammal collected at Huanan Market or any other live-animal market in Wuhan has been screened for SARS-CoV-2–related viruses, and Huanan Market was closed and disinfected on 1 January 2020. Nevertheless, that most early symptomatic cases were linked to Huanan Market—specifically to the western section where raccoon dogs were caged—provides strong evidence of a live-animal market origin of the pandemic.

‘This would explain the extraordinary preponderance of early COVID-19 cases at one of the handful of sites in Wuhan—population 11 million—that sell some of the same animals that brought us SARS. Although it may never be possible to recover related viruses from animals if they were not sampled at the time of emergence, conclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort.’

Read here (Science, Nov 16, 2021)

WTO finished without TRIPS waiver

‘Unlike the more flexible arrangements of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO framework and negotiating priorities have undermined developmental aspirations. The South has been undermined by rich countries’ betrayal of the 2001 Doha compromise. After ‘softly’ killing the ‘Development Round’ promised then, rich countries can now redeem themselves by supporting the waiver.

‘Almost two years after COVID-19 was first recognized, the pandemic continues to threaten the world, with poor countries and people now worse affected. The devastation could be partly mitigated if developing countries could meet their pandemic needs without fear of litigation for IP infringement. A TRIPS Council meeting is scheduled for 16 November, before the four-day WTO Ministerial Council meeting from 30 November. The waiver would also encourage renewed international cooperation, long undermined by destructive rivalry and competition.

‘By refusing to make concessions, rich countries would not only jeopardize the WTO, but also the world’s ability to urgently contain the pandemic. With complementary financial resource transfers, they can restore the goodwill urgently needed for international cooperation and to revive multilateralism.’

Read here (IPS News, Nov 16, 2021)

Why healthcare workers are quitting in droves

‘About one in five health-care workers has left their job since the pandemic started. This is their story—and the story of those left behind...

‘Health-care workers aren't quitting because they can’t handle their jobs. They’re quitting because they can’t handle being unable to do their jobs. Even before COVID-19, many of them struggled to bridge the gap between the noble ideals of their profession and the realities of its business. The pandemic simply pushed them past the limits of that compromise...

‘Several health-care workers told me that, amid the most grueling working conditions of their careers, their hospitals cut salaries, reduced benefits, and canceled raises; forced staff to work more shifts with longer hours; offered trite wellness tips, such as keeping gratitude journals, while denying paid time off or reduced hours; failed to provide adequate personal protective equipment; and downplayed the severity of their experiences.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Nov 16, 2021)

Why China is still trying to achieve zero Covid

‘Dr Zhong Nanshan is seen as something of a medical hero in China. The specialist in respiratory medicine shot to global fame in 2003 for challenging the then-government's line that the Sars outbreak was not so severe. These days, people - including officials - listen to what he has to say.

‘In a recent interview, he said China's strict Covid amelioration measures would remain for "a rather long time". He added that a global Covid-19 mortality rate of 2% was too high for China to accept even with vaccines in place. The cost of opening too quickly was not worth it, he said, adding that China would be watching the experience of other countries under their "living-with-Covid" plans.

‘It is also important to consider that China's officials can be quite conservative in their approach. It is possible that they plan to "re-open" the country again and are simply in no great rush to do so.’

Read here (BBC, Nov 15, 2021) 

China stands firm on ‘dynamic zero case’ Covid policy

‘China will continue its “dynamic zero-case” policy to cut off virus transmission as early as possible, although most countries have adopted a “living with Covid-19 virus” strategy, health officials and infectious disease specialists say. In the latest epidemic wave which started in China on October 16, more than 1,000 cases have been reported across 21 provinces, mainly in the northeastern region.

‘The number may seem insignificant when compared with those in Western countries, which have reported tens of thousands of cases daily, but top Chinese leaders said the country would not tolerate virus outbreaks as anti-epidemic work was an important political mission.’

Read here (AsiaTimes, Nov 15, 2021)

Covid antiviral pills: What scientists still want to know

‘Drugs such as molnupiravir and Paxlovid could change the course of the pandemic if clinical trial results hold up in the real world...

‘Researchers will be looking at the ages and ethnicities of those who were enrolled in the trials, and at any other health conditions that they had, says John Mellors, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Pennsylvania.

‘Because antiviral drugs often need to be given early in the course of an infection for them to work effectively, Mellors will also be looking for more detail about when the drugs were given in the trials, and at how those timings correlated with efficacy. That information will provide a sense of when the window of opportunity for treatment closes. Neither trial had enough participants to enable firm conclusions to be drawn about the drugs’ ability to prevent deaths, but no deaths occurred in their treatment arms.

‘Researchers are also keen for any clue — including from further clinical trials — as to whether the drugs affect transmission of the coronavirus, or prevent illness in people who have been exposed to it.

‘If they do, the combination of vaccines and antiviral drugs could become a powerful tool in controlling outbreaks, says Jerome Kim, director-general of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul. For example, if a worrying coronavirus variant emerges in a specific region, those who are most likely to be affected could be given an antiviral drug to supplement immunity from vaccines. This could clamp down on the virus and prevent its spread. “It opens up some new possibilities for the way we think about control,” Kim says. “This would have a really dramatic impact.”

Read here (Nature, Nov 10, 2021)

New Pfizer anti-viral and ivermectin

Pharmacodynamic analyses that show that the new Pfizer antiviral works in the same way as ivermectin -- as a SARS-CoV-2-3CL protease inhibitor. Plenty of links attached to the video to back the claim.

View here (Youtube, Nov 9, 2021)

How the rise of antivirals may change the course of the pandemic

‘Making them isn't easy. But new pills to treat COVID-19 are now showing promise at curbing illness and saving lives...

‘Unlike vaccines that can prevent infection, antivirals act as a second line of defense, slowing down and eventually arresting progression of a disease when infections occur. They’re also important when effective vaccines aren’t available against viral diseases, as is the case for HIV, hepatitis C, and herpes.

‘But developing antivirals is an expensive and difficult endeavor. That’s especially true for acute respiratory diseases, for which the window for treatment is short. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that has unleashed the devastating COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have resorted to repurposing old drugs or compounds that were being tested against other diseases.’

Read here (National Geographic, Nov 5, 2021)

The ivermectin saga in Malaysia: Nov 2021

We don’t recommend Ivermectin to treat Covid-19, says health DG. Read here (Free Malaysia Today, Nov 3, 2021)

Ivermectin study: Doctor whose clinic was raided stands his ground, disputes findings Read here (Free Malaysia Today, Nov 3, 2021)

I’ll study findings, says MP who urged use of Ivermectin for Covid treatment Read here (Free Malaysia Today, Nov 3, 2021)

Why mandatory vaccination is nothing new

‘Mandatory vaccinations have been with us for centuries, quietly saving lives – and they're often largely unopposed until something changes.

‘When chosen carefully, there's no question that mandatory vaccinations can save lives. For example, one study found that patients were substantially less likely to die (with mortality rates of around 13.6% mortality verses 22.4%) in hospitals where healthcare workers had higher rates of flu vaccination compared to those with low rates, though patients were equally as likely to be infected with the virus.

Another European study also found that in countries with mandatory measles vaccinations, and without non-medical exemptions, the disease incidence was 86% lower than in countries without the mandates.   
‘One common tension is between obligation, which can increase hostility, and voluntary vaccination, which can increase transmission. Some health experts are nervous about mandatory vaccination because these policies may diminish trust in medical authorities over the long term. Vaccine mandates have led to violent riots in Brazil and may have contributed to vociferous anti-vaccine movements all over Europe, for instance.

‘In France, one of the world's hotspots of vaccine hesitancy, the Ministry of Health has attempted to reduce the polarising effects of vaccine mandates by embedding mandates within a broader effort to build trust. This has led to improved vaccine coverage, although a significant minority are still vaccine-hesitant – suggesting the importance of continuing to monitor attitudes and strengthening relationships between the medical establishment and the public.’

Read here (BBC, Nov 1, 2021)

America has lost the plot on Covid

‘We know how this ends: The coronavirus becomes endemic, and we live with it forever. But what we don’t know—and what the U.S. seems to have no coherent plan for—is how we are supposed to get there. We’ve avoided the hard questions whose answers will determine what life looks like in the next weeks, months, and years: How do we manage the transition to endemicity? When are restrictions lifted? And what long-term measures do we keep, if any, when we reach endemicity?

‘The answers were simpler when we thought we could vaccinate our way to herd immunity. But vaccinations in the U.S. have plateaued. The Delta variant and waning immunity against transmission mean herd immunity may well be impossible even if every single American gets a shot. So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Nov 1, 2021)

Risk factors and disease profile of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK users of the COVID Symptom Study app: a prospective, community-based, nested, case-control study

‘COVID-19 vaccines show excellent efficacy in clinical trials and effectiveness in real-world data, but some people still become infected with SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination. This study aimed to identify risk factors for post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection and describe the characteristics of post-vaccination illness.

‘To minimise SARS-CoV-2 infection, at-risk populations must be targeted in efforts to boost vaccine effectiveness and infection control measures. Our findings might support caution around relaxing physical distancing and other personal protective measures in the post-vaccination era, particularly around frail older adults and individuals living in more deprived areas, even if these individuals are vaccinated, and might have implications for strategies such as booster vaccinations.’

Read here (The Lancet, Nov 1, 2021)

View John Campbell’s video on “Severe illness after vaccination” on the above here.

Covid-19′s global death toll tops 5 million in under 2 years

‘The global death toll from COVID-19 topped 5 million on Monday, less than two years into a crisis that has not only devastated poor countries but also humbled wealthy ones with first-rate health care systems. Together, the United States, the European Union, Britain and Brazil — all upper-middle- or high-income countries — account for one-eighth of the world’s population but nearly half of all reported deaths. The U.S. alone has recorded over 745,000 lives lost, more than any other nation.’

Read here (AP, Nov 1, 2021)

Merck’s antiviral could be just what Covid was waiting for

‘There's a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could do an end run around the drug; any variant that happens to be less susceptible to the drug’s modus operandi could survive and become more dominant, pushing the virus’s evolution toward resistance. And SARS-CoV-2 has already shown its propensity for outsmarting certain treatments: In July 2021 the US halted shipments of an antibody therapy from Eli Lilly after detecting resistance in newer variants of the virus.’

Read here (Wired, Nov 1, 2021)