Lancet editor says inequality and Covid-19 have converged to create a ‘syndemic’

‘In his new book "The COVID-19 Catastrophe: What's Gone Wrong and How to Stop It Happening Again," Dr. Richard Horton does more than trace the history of the COVID-19 pandemic and explain how we should listen to scientific experts in confronting this global scourge.

‘He does this, of course, but Horton is more ambitious than that. As editor-in-chief of "The Lancet" — one of the world's oldest, most famous and most prestigious medical journals — Horton has overseen the publication of countless articles on a variety of medical subjects. Hence, one can sense in his book a desire to apply the full breadth of his knowledge and experience to this problem. His conclusion is both fascinating and extremely relevant, even urgent.

‘As Horton explains, the COVID-19 pandemic was unnecessarily worsened by deeper social problems, from economic policies that left millions upon millions of people especially vulnerable to Western governments who made political assumptions about the virus that proved to be gravely mistaken. Speaking with Salon, Horton discussed everything from President Donald Trump's failure to address the pandemic (as well as President Joe Biden's early successes) to an intriguing thought experiment on what would have happened if the governments the world could have simply paid people to stay home.’

Read here (Salon, Feb 6, 2021)

The play cure: In a clinical setting, playful activities are not distractions; they take patients deep into trauma – and out the other side...

‘Take a pen. Place it on the paper. Draw wherever you want. However you want. You know, Paul Klee said: “Drawing is like taking a line for a walk.”’ In the hospital workshop, I turn towards a patient, smile and continue: ‘So, let’s draw together. We could draw houses, and draw a path between our homes. Let’s grab paints. Turn the paper around. Upside down. If you don’t mind, I can paint your sky and you can paint mine… We can play and make…’

‘For more than 20 years, I’ve been saying these sentences, playing and making, as a clinical arts therapist, specialising in mental health, and as a lecturer and consultant using creative techniques with doctors, hospital directors, nursing managers and entrepreneurs. Guided by artists such as Louise Bourgeois and Jackson Pollock, and by Plato, I spend my days tapping into what the phenomenologist and philosopher of play Eugen Fink calls the ‘peach skin of things’. It glows.’

Two paragraphs that may interest you to read the whole story

• ‘Play, as Fink writes, unites ‘the highest desire and the deepest suffering’. For years, I worked with teenagers diagnosed with psychosis. A highlight of our work was a short surrealist play, ‘The Lost Potato Masher’, which they devised based around kitchen objects. The main roles were taken by a fridge, a cupboard, a toaster, a cooker, a table and chairs, and the lost potato masher. The text dealt with parental abandonment, despair, solitude, violence, fate and hope. In a training context, a hospital manager, in an improvisation, once acted the role of the file of a dead patient that had been thrown into a bin. Both of these examples show the cathartic effect of play, allowing us to sit with our shadows...
• ‘A recent study by the psychologists Maja Stanko-Kaczmarek and Lukasz Kaczmarek at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poland found that the tactile sensations of finger-painting provoked a state of mindfulness connected with wellbeing. As we paint, we’re present in the moment, and we have a broader attention. This can be contrasted with the ‘mindlessness’ state, often a symptom of mental illness, characterised by past or future ruminations. The physical nature of play and making locates us in the here and now: it centres us in ourselves, mobilising an embodied cognition that’s important in skill learning. At all stages of life, Lego-making, knitting, embroidery and painting can contribute to psychological wellbeing.’

Read here (Aeon, Feb 4, 2021)

How to heal the 'mass trauma' of Covid-19

‘When the pandemic is over, how should we process the memories of what happened? Ed Prideaux discovers counter-intuitive answers from the science of trauma... 

• What happens when trauma goes viral
• How trauma affects groups and individuals
• The problem of forgetting

‘Covid-19 is a mass trauma the likes of which we've never seen before. Our most complex social extensions, and the building-blocks of our personal realities, have been coloured indelibly. The ways we live and work together, and view each other as common citizens: everything means something different in the viral era, and with potentially traumatic effect. 

‘All pandemics end, however. And this one will. But to forget the trauma, move on, and pay it no mind, won't help. It'd be a disservice to history and our own minds. Maybe to the future, too. ’

Read here (BBC, Feb 4, 2021) 

Covid-19 pandemic could last 4 to 5 years: Lawrence Wong

‘It may take four to five years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends and the world can look to a "post-COVID normal", said Education Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (Jan 25). "At some point in time the pandemic will pass, but it may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal. What will this new post-COVID world look like? No one can tell," he said. Mr Wong, who co-chairs the COVID-19 multi-ministry taskforce, was speaking at the Singapore Perspectives 2021 conference hosted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Jan 25, 2021)

The inequality virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

‘The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade.

‘The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.’ 

Download PDF here (Oxfam, Jan 25, 2021)

When will the pandemic end? (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

‘This article updates our earlier perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end. Transition toward normalcy in the United States remains most likely in the second quarter of 2021 and herd immunity in the third and fourth quarters, but the emergence of new strains and a slow start to vaccine rollout raise real risks to both timelines. We also add a perspective for the United Kingdom...

Transition toward normalcy

‘A transition toward normalcy will occur when COVID-19 mortality falls and the disease is de-exceptionalized in society. COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition, but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response. During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use in many settings), but mortality will fall significantly, allowing greater normalization of business and social activities. This will be driven by a combination of early vaccine rollout (which, being directed first at those at greatest risk, should reduce deaths faster than cases), seasonality, increasing natural immunity, and stronger public-health response.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co update, Jan 20, 2021)

I spoke to 99 big thinkers about what our world after coronavirus might look like: This is what I learned

‘For me, it was truly a season of learning. Among other things, it helped me understand why COVID-19 is not a storm that we can just wait out. Our pre-pandemic world was anything but normal, and our post-pandemic world will not be like going back to normal at all. Here are four reasons why:

• Disruption will accelerate
• Politics will become more turbulent
• Pandemic habits will persist
• Crisis will create opportunities

Read here (Fast Company, Jan 13, 2021)

Post-Covid world discourse: Four fault lines

‘There is a plethora of published views, opinions and emerging evidence available on what the post-COVID world might look like. A broad consensus seems to exist regarding how things won’t – or can’t – go back to the way they were before. A ‘new normal’ will emerge resulting in a significant refashioning of the status quo, for economic agents as well as governance structures globally.

‘But a review of the opinions and outlooks out there so far suggests that there are a number of vital gaps that need to be brought forth if we are to ‘build back better’ and in an inclusive and sustainable way. These include:

1. Southern voices and local contexts are missing
2. Limited focus on long-term implications
3. Over-generalised perceptions about anticipated changes
4. Absent national level analysis of global trends’

Read here (On think tanks, Jan 11, 2021)

Has Covid-19 killed Asia's growth miracle? Khor Hoe Ee

‘It was no fluke that the ASEAN+3 region emerged unscathed from the 2008 crisis. Sound macroeconomic fundamentals, as well as sizable fiscal and financial-sector buffers, enabled policymakers to lead the region out of the crisis quickly by adopting expansionary measures to boost domestic demand.

‘A similar response is needed today. Although the COVID-19 crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains and the economies that depend on them, pursuing a strategy of insourcing or localizing production would be devastating for the global economy.

‘Instead, overcoming supply-chain weaknesses requires enhancing globalization and economic integration, diversifying sources of supply to build resilience, and reforming and strengthening multilateral institutions and multinational forums. These measures will help to ensure that when the next global shock occurs, governments will be equipped to cooperate effectively and resist the lure of protectionism. That would be the best outcome for the global economy, and ASEAN+3 in particular.’

Read here (Japan Times, Jan 3, 2021)

The next pandemic is already on the horizon... But experience can help

"We have to remember why (Covid-19) was detected when it was," Dr Josie Golding, epidemics lead at global health research funder Wellcome, said. "It was because there was experience in (China) from Sars and from avian influenza, there were systems in place to detect strange pneumonia coming up."

‘Dr Golding added: "Covid-19 is going to put a lot of those systems and experience in countries… The countries who dealt with it better and faster at the beginning were the ones who had that historical knowledge. I think that is going to make a big difference when it comes to the next Disease X."

Read here (Straits Times, Dec 31, 2020) 

Covid-19 has shown us that good health is not just down to biology

‘Of all the lessons we’ve learned from this pandemic, the most significant is how unequal its effects have been. Wealth, it turns out, is the best shielding strategy from Covid-19. As poorer people crowded together in cramped housing, the rich escaped to their country retreats. Two of the largest risk factors for dying from Covid-19 are being from a deprived background and being from a minority-ethnic background, pointing to the underlying role of social inequalities, housing conditions and occupation.

\‘Our society’s recovery from this disease should be centred on building more equal, resilient societies, where people in all parts of the world have access to both protection from the disease and access to research developments. It all starts with government. At the end of a gruelling 11 months, I’m left with Abraham Lincoln’s words in my mind: the pandemic has shown that we need “government of the people, by the people, for the people” – not just government for the wealthy elite. Perhaps that’s the strongest legacy of Covid-19.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 25, 2020)

Twenty images that offer a lens on 2020

‘McKinsey designers highlight the photos and illustrations that helped us tell the visual story of a remarkable year...

‘The way we see the world may well have changed in the course of 2020—as the global pandemic has upended our personal and professional lives. As the year draws to a close, we turned to McKinsey’s designers to get perspective on the images that helped bring our insights to life.

‘While we sometimes commission bespoke art for our articles and reports, for the most part we curate our visuals from outside image libraries. Even in prepandemic times, this presented special challenges when it came to selection (does the visual messaging fit the topic and tone of the piece?) and adaptation (is the image treatment consistent with our style and brand?). But in a year where much of the world spent many months maintaining some level of physical distancing, large swaths of the images in the libraries we access—those that showed people in the close proximity we were all used to before the pandemic—became unusable.

‘See our designers’ favorites from this year and why they resonated, then read the stories behind them to understand some of the year’s most important issues.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Dec 17, 2020)

These drugs might prevent severe Covid

‘Even with vaccines on the way, treatments are needed to prevent the disease from getting worse—and to be ready for COVID-25, COVID-37, and so on...

‘In an interview with Scientific American, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, described the desired characteristics of early COVID treatments. “My overwhelming preference is for direct-acting antiviral agents that can be administered orally” and that suppress the virus completely within a week or less, he said. “That, to me, is the highest priority.” 

‘Scientists have begun on differing paths to search for these drugs... One of the current leading contenders for treating mild COVID is an antiviral pill that was previously developed for influenza. At first called EIDD-2801, the drug was found to protect mice from severe lung disease caused by two other coronaviruses—SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV... 

‘Repurposing existing drugs can also yield some surprises by finding ones that are not logical candidates to work against COVID-19. Fluvoxamine, a pill used for treating anxiety disorders, shows some promise in treating early COVID...’

Read here (Scientific American, Dec 14, 2020) 

The magnifying glass: How Covid revealed the truth about our world

‘A fitting symbol of this global pandemic would be a magnifying glass. For while the virus ended and upended so many lives, and spawned a whole new vocabulary – social distancing, furlough, herd immunity, R number, circuit breaker, bubble, unmute – it did not remake the global landscape so much as reveal what was already there, or what was taking shape, just below the surface.

‘It amplified it, sometimes distorting it, sometimes illuminating it in alarming detail. Covid‑19, the disease that was first reported to the World Health Organization one year ago this month, served as a lens through which we were able to see our politics, our planet and ourselves with a new and shocking clarity. It made 2020 a year of revelation, even if what was uncovered was not nearly as new as we might imagine.’

Read here (The Guardian, Dec 11, 2020)

Pandemic, ‘Great Reset’ and resistance

‘The Covid pandemic is a turning point, an opportunity to change. The reset we need now is not the creation of a ‘post-human, post-nature’ world defined by unregulated corporate-led growth of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. We need to balance digitalization and commoditization with an ecological reset, a way of living that respects the environment, promotes agroecology, bioregionalism and local communities. We need to raise our consciousness and understanding of humanity as a species in nature, our connectedness to each other and the rest of planetary life.’

Read here (IPS News, Dec 1, 2020)

United States: Beyond the wasteland -- New strategies for pivoting from the pandemic crisis to a recovery built on economic justice

‘Decades of falling wage shares mean that millions of households are ready to spend more if only they could earn more income. A well-calibrated recovery strategy that combines public spending on goods and services with regulation of predatory corporate behavior and effective redistribution can unleash a virtuous growth circle that improves living standards for the vast majority and strengthens government finances even as it generates resources to boost public services and tackle the environmental catastrophe.

‘Such a strategy would consist of the following elements:

• A prolonged fiscal expansion with immediate support to employment creation and social services, including a strong component in the care economy;
• Public-infrastructure investment to accelerate the energy transition by combining policies to encourage investments in renewables and discourage fossil fuel extraction;
• Policies to improve industrial capacity based on raising productivity and greater energy efficiency;
• Progressive tax reforms shifting the burden from indirect taxes such as sales and value-added taxes (which are regressive and discourage spending) to direct taxation, especially on high-income earners (whose consumption is relatively unaffected by taxation) and on corporate earnings and rents (with exemptions depending on employment creation).

Read here (The American Prospect, Nov 27, 2020)

How Covid-19 will impact our cities in the long term

‘The biggest opportunity for cities from this pandemic is to build back better with the planned fiscal stimulus: more climate resilient infrastructure, green initiatives such as increasing public spaces, creating vehicle free streets, making bike lanes, refurbishing buildings to multiple uses and thereby doing more with less. This cannot be done by the public sector alone. Cities will need to attract private sector and social partners to close the financing gap. Good governance is an imperative to attract private financing and to work with the private sector.’

Read here (World Economic Forum, Nov 25, 2020)

With vaccines on the horizon, here’s how business leaders can plan ahead

‘Vaccine announcements get the globe closer to eradicating the virus, but questions still remain. Business leaders will need to consider a range of potential scenarios for access and distribution to adjust to the changes still ahead. For business planning only, Salesforce Future Lab developed a selection of hypothetical scenarios in discussions with leading experts to help leaders understand the range of scenarios for which they might need to plan.’

Hypothetical Scenario 1: “Zero Hurdles” -- In this scenario, business leaders could look forward to the crisis ending as quickly and evenly as possible around the world. In-person work and consumer confidence could come back close to pre-crisis levels over the summer and fall of 2021, though masking, distancing, and ventilation would still be necessary for many more months.

Hypothetical Scenario 2: “Sprint and Stumble” -- In this scenario, many business leaders might initially make investments betting on a rapid re-emergence from crisis conditions, only to be surprised as optimism evaporates. As the crisis stretched on, those who recognized the continuing risk would likely be in the best position, but even they would still face stiff economic headwinds.

Hypothetical Scenario 3: “Long March” -- In this scenario, business leaders could be increasingly challenged to maintain the safety of their staff and customers before the vaccine arrives, as the public becomes less willing to adhere to public health guidance. But after its arrival, the impact is similar to “Zero Hurdles” above, with a relatively rapid return to workplace safety and consumer confidence.

Read here (World Economic Forum, Nov 25, 2020) 

After coronavirus: Our relationship with meat and the next pandemic

‘All pandemics in recorded human history have come via the animal kingdom. With mutations abounding and our interaction with wildlife widening, when are we finally going to address the sick animal in the room?...

‘To be precise, three out of four of those "new diseases" come from animals, and the frequency with which they have emerged has been accelerating for over 40 years... [Delia] Randolph was the lead author of a joint International Livestock Research Institute and UNEP report published in July looking into the reasons for this acceleration. Research from dozens of scientists spanning the globe came to one conclusion: human behaviour, i.e., the way we interact with and consume animals, is the main driver increasing the prevalence of zoonotic disease. 

‘The report lists seven "human-mediated factors" behind the emergence, with numbers one through three as follows: 1) increasing human demand for animal protein, 2) unsustainable agricultural intensification, 3) increased use and exploitation of wildlife.’

Read here (DW, Nov 20, 2020)

What history can teach us about the post-Covid economy (Morningstar, Nov 17, 2020)

‘To investigate the means through which these shifts could happen—and the likelihood that they will—we identified three main ways the coronavirus could shape the economy long after the pandemic has subsided:

• Habits could evolve, causing lasting change in consumer behavior. As an example of the impact of habits, consider the rise of recycling in the United States over the past several decades. This shift was due in part to the advent of Earth Day in 1970 and the nationwide campaign encouraging Americans to "reduce, reuse, recycle." The Environmental Protection Agency reported that 34.7% of municipal solid waste was recycled in 2015, as compared with 6.6% in 1970.
• Fear can make consumers reluctant to engage in certain activities—in this case, fear of the next pandemic (including a COVID-19 resurgence). An instance where fear led to consumer shifts is when research in the 1960s demonstrated the health risks of smoking cigarettes. This led to a permanent reduction in cigarette sales—approximately 42% of U.S. adults smoked in 1964, compared with approximately 19% in 2011.
• Sunk costs, or costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recouped, could change the long-term plans of consumers and firms. A classic example of sunk costs is the Concorde. British and French manufacturers poured such exorbitant sums into developing the aircraft in the 1950s and 1960s that the jet never became profitable over the decades it was commercially available. (This was such a notorious incident that the sunk-cost fallacy is sometimes also referred to as the Concorde fallacy.)

Read here (Morningstar, Nov 17, 2020)