How to make sense of all the Covid-19 projections? A new model combines them

‘The [University of Massachusetts Amherst] team unveiled the first version four weeks ago and ever since has been adding in more forecasts and updating the projections weekly. The latest update — released Tuesday — incorporates eight models, including some oft-cited ones, such as those built by the Imperial College London, the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Columbia University and Northeastern University. (The team also sends each week's release to the CDC, which publishes a version with a slight time lag.)

‘The projections vary substantially — with the most pessimistic forecasting a total death toll of 120,000 by June 6 and the most optimistic forecasting 103,000 deaths by that date. But the models have been inching closer to each other. Over the past several weeks, the distance between the highest and lowest estimates has halved from a gap of 36,000 deaths two weeks ago to a gap of 17,000 deaths in the most recent update released Tuesday.’

Read here (NPR or National Public Radio, US, May 13, 2020)

Covid-19: The second wave (12-minute video)

‘Lockdowns may be easing in many places around the world, but experts are warning that vigilance will be key to avoid a second - and possibly worse - wave of COVID-19.’

View here (DW, May 13, 2020)

‘Dangerous, damaging’: China trade dispute triggers national division

‘Victoria and Queensland have warned the federal government to be more diplomatic in pursuit of a coronavirus inquiry, fearing that Australia's escalating trade dispute with China will harm already fragile state economies...

‘Australia-China Business Council chief executive Helen Sawczak said the inquiry had been politicised for domestic point scoring and warned more Australian industries to prepare for trade strikes if the government could not negotiate with China.’

Meanwhile... ‘Beijing is also pushing new beef and resources deals with Brazil and barley trade with Canada and eastern Europe. Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro recently spoke with China's President Xi Jinping after China supplied medical equipment. The country is one of Australia's top rivals in the critical iron ore, coal and LNG sectors.’

Read here (Sydney Morning Herald, May 13, 2020)

‘2020 will be the darkest winter in modern history’

Dr Rick Bright, former Director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), testified in a hearing at the US House of Representatives. Dr. Bright filed a whistleblower complaint shortly after being removed from his position at BARDA, alleging that he was removed in retaliation for conflicts regarding US government policies regarding medical countermeasures for COVID-19. In his opening statement, Dr. Bright forecasts that “2020 will be the darkest winter in modern history” and emphasizes the importance of basing policy and operational decisions on reliable scientific evidence.

Read here (CNN, May 13, 2020)

Naomi Klein: How big tech plans to profit from the pandemic

‘The issue is not whether schools must change in the face of a highly contagious virus for which we have neither cure nor inoculation. Like every institution where humans gather in groups, they will change. The trouble, as always in these moments of collective shock, is the absence of public debate about what those changes should look like, and who they should benefit – private tech companies or students?

‘The same questions need to be asked about health. Avoiding doctor’s offices and hospitals during a pandemic makes good sense. But telehealth misses a huge amount. So we need to have an evidence-based debate about the pros and cons of spending scarce public resources on telehealth – rather than on more trained nurses, equipped with all the necessary protective equipment, who are able to make house calls to diagnose and treat patients in their homes.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 13, 2020)

Launch of the WHO Academy and the WHO info mobile applications

For healthcare workers: ‘The WHO Academy, World Health Organization’s lifelong learning centre, has launched a mobile app designed to enable health workers to expand their life-saving skills to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. The app provides health workers with mobile access to a wealth of COVID-19 knowledge resources, developed by WHO, that include up-to-the-minute guidance, tools, training, and virtual workshops that will help them care for COVID-19 patients and protect themselves.

Real-time info for everyone: 'WHO will launch the WHO Info app which will give millions of people real-time mobile access to the latest news and developments. WHO has developed the app from the ground up with an intuitive user-interface and a clean, smart design. From the COVID-19 front, the WHO Info app will provide the latest WHO initiatives, partnerships, and to up-to-date information on the race to find medicines and vaccines for fighting the disease. The number of COVID-19 cases, organized by country, and by timelines, are continually updated in the app from the official WHO COVID-19 data streams.’

Read here (WHO, May 13, 2020)

COVID-19 and the need for action on mental health

‘The report highlights the needs of vulnerable populations, including first responders and front-line healthcare workers, older adults, children, women, and refugees or those in conflict settings. In addition to fear of illness or death and the growing challenges posed by mis- and disinformation, individuals are also experiencing a broad scope of secondary mental health effects, including financial insecurity or social isolation. The report advises that emergency psychosocial support should become more widely available, including remote mental health care. Furthermore, the report calls for prioritizing the protection and promotion of human rights of those with severe mental health conditions, as their needs can often be neglected in major emergencies.’

Download here (United Nations, May 13, 2020)

US CDC had ‘very good interaction’ with China after coronavirus outbreak, says director Robert Redfield

‘Top US health official says colleagues connected with Beijing two days after Chinese health authorities first notified WHO of ‘a cluster of cases of pneumonia’. Discussions took place ‘at a scientific level’ as early as January 2, Redfield testifies to US lawmakers. “I personally had discussions as early, I think the CDC had discussions as early as January 2, and myself, January 3, with a counterpart to discuss this at a scientific level,” Redfield said. “I think we had very good interaction. That’s different than the broader government level.”

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 13, 2020)

How has Vietnam, a developing nation in South-East Asia, done so well to combat coronavirus?

Key points: Despite sharing a border with China, Vietnam has reported less than 300 cases. Experts believe that Vietnamese coronavirus caseload statistics are accurate. Success has been attributed to aggressive testing, contact tracing and public messaging

Read here (ABC News, May 13, 2020)

Learning how to dance - Part 5: Prevent seeding and spreading

This is Part 5 of ‘Learning how to dance’, a series which goes in depth to understand what countries need to do to Dance, to reopen their economies without new outbreaks.

‘The bad news first: (1) We will likely need to heavily slow down national and international tourism for months, (2) Big events like business fairs or music concerts will need to remain closed for now

‘The good news: (1) We should still be able to travel for one-way or very long trips (2) There are ways we can accelerate the reopening of tourism (3) We can probably reopen schools (4) A clear order is emerging for which businesses should reopen. The most important to keep open are likely banks, grocery, and general stores, and the least important are likely cafés, dessert parlors, and gyms’.

Read here (Medium, May 13, 2020)

Ominous warning for world governments as South Korea hit by ‘super spreader’ after lockdowns lifted

‘At the weekend, the country’s health system reported the sudden appearance of more than 40 new coronavirus cases. It was the first time in a month the figure had spiked so high. Contact tracers immediately went to work. What had caused this disturbing turnaround? Turns out, it was mostly due to just one 29-year-old man...’

Read here (News.com, May 12, 2020)

Covid-19: A doctor’s concerns

‘The challenge for the public will be adhering to guidelines like social distancing, hand washing, cleansing and face masks in public. We have to learn to internalise such behaviour (an example will be the brushing of teeth) so that the need for monitoring and surveillance is minimised...

‘Another concern is the lack of public consultation. Like what happens with our annual haze (who knows, we may, thanks to Covid-19 and the movement control order escape the haze this year!), the voices of the public are not being solicited by the authorities. We see this happening at federal, state and local council levels. Why this “us” vs “them” mindset which pervades our country?’

Dato’ Seri Dr T Devaraj is a retired physician who has been involved in hospice work for many years.

Read here (Aliran, May 12, 2020)

China, Denmark and Singapore expand testing

‘China, Singapore and Denmark were among countries to announce substantial expansions of their testing regimes, with the Chinese city of Wuhan, the original centre of the pandemic, saying it planned to test all 11 million residents...

‘Singapore also said it aimed to test all 323,000 migrant workers living in cramped, often unsanitary dormitories that have become a hotbed of infections in recent weeks, accounting for the vast majority of the city-state’s total of 24,671 cases.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 12, 2020)

‘The past six weeks have been unlike anything I’ve known’: A GP on how the pandemic has changed his work

‘It’s clear that though the lockdown has slashed transmission, it is provoking a silent epidemic of despair. Panic attacks, sleeplessness and plunging moods are all difficulties GPs are encountering daily – tough conversations to have at the best of times, but even tougher on the phone. Within our area of the city, we already know of suicides triggered by bankruptcies and business closures; and of marriages breaking down. Alcohol-induced injuries are up, as are injuries from assaults.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 12, 2020)

‘Passing the buck’ becomes reckless ‘conspiracy blame game’

‘Celebrated UK imperialist apologist historian Niall Ferguson, now at the Hoover Institution, cites the venerable New York Times (NYT) for the now oft-repeated claim that China unleashed seven million potentially Covid-19 infected, and therefore infectious, Wuhan residents on the rest of the world for most of January before imposing a lockdown.

‘Ferguson eventually conceded that he had wrongly alleged that regular flights abroad left Wuhan after 23 January, but retaliated by questioning Bell’s other scholarship, including his recent book on China, and insisting that China should have cancelled all international flights in an updated blog.’

Read here (IPS News, May 12, 2020)

Study warns 1.1 million children, 56,000 mothers, could die as pandemic interrupts access to food & medical care

A new report finds 1.1 million children under 5 could die, and 56,700 maternal deaths occur, in the next six months from secondary impacts of the pandemic, like disruptions to health services and access to food... ‘Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1,157,000 additional child deaths and 56,700 additional maternal deaths.’

Read here (The Lancet, May 12, 2020)

The lost six weeks when US failed to contain outbreak: BBC video

‘Having watched Asian and European countries struggle against Covid-19, the US was slow to ramp up testing and order its residents to stay at home. We look at this crucial time period and what exactly was done to prevent the outbreak.’

View here (BBC, May 12, 2020)

How the novel coronavirus attacks our entire body

‘Of course, the lungs and airways are the main focus of attention with the COVID-19 respiratory disease. Since the new SARS-CoV-2 pathogen mainly attacks the lower respiratory tract, infected persons who experience a moderate or severe course of the disease have a dry cough, shortness of breath and/or pneumonia. However, there are now numerous indications that the new coronavirus also attacks other organs on a massive scale and can severely affect the heart, blood vessels, nerves, brain, kidneys and skin.’

Read here (DW, May 11, 2020)

Covid-19: Transmission scenarios explained

‘Ignoring the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, we find that the biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies, and workplaces, such as meat packing facilities and call centers. Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble.

‘The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections.’

Read here (Government Technology, May 11, 2020)

Johns Hopkins and Bloomberg Philanthropies, with New York State, launch online course to train army of contact tracers to slow spread of COVID-19

‘To support the effort, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has developed the contact tracing course that is available for registration on the Coursera platform starting Monday, May 11, 2020. It is open to anyone in the world, whether they are interested in becoming a contact tracer or just want to understand the process. Applicants in New York state will be invited to take the course after their application is reviewed and they pass an initial interview. The interview, followed by taking the course and passing the final assessment within 72 hours, will be required to be hired into the New York state program.’

Read here (John Hopkins, May 11, 2020)

Damage to the kidneys, heart, brain — even ‘covid toes’ — prompts reassessment of the disease and how to treat it

‘...many scientists have come to believe that much of the disease’s devastation comes from two intertwined causes. The first is the harm the virus wreaks on blood vessels, leading to clots that can range from microscopic to sizable. Patients have suffered strokes and pulmonary emboli as clots break loose and travel to the brain and lungs. A study in the Lancet, a British medical journal, showed this may be because the virus directly targets the endothelial cells that line blood vessels. The second is an exaggerated response from the body’s own immune system, a storm of killer “cytokines” that attack the body’s own cells along with the virus as it seeks to defend the body from an invader.

‘Research and therapies are focused on these phenomena. Blood thinners are being more widely used in some hospitals. A review of records for 2,733 patients, published Wednesday in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, indicates they may help the most seriously ill.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 10, 2020)

Can Malaysia cope with a ‘triple whammy’ economic shock?

‘While none of the world’s economies are expected to be spared economic pain in the coming months as crimped domestic demand and the global recession begin to bite, analysts said Malaysia could be among the countries hit by a “triple whammy” due to a third factor applicable to energy exporters – the collapse in oil prices.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 10, 2020)

It’s no accident Britain and America are the world's biggest coronavirus losers

‘When the business of government becomes limited to populist set pieces, its ranks are purged of doers and populated instead with cheerleaders. This is how we ended up with the current cast of dazed-in-headlights Tory cabinet members. In the US, the very notion of an “administration” has been worn away. As the New York University journalism professor Jay Rosen puts it, “There is no White House. Not in the sense that journalists have always used that term. It’s just Trump – and people who work in the building”.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 10, 2020)

How pandemics end (NYT)

‘Will that happen with Covid-19? One possibility, historians say, is that the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found.

“I think there is this sort of social psychological issue of exhaustion and frustration,” the Yale historian Naomi Rogers said. “We may be in a moment when people are just saying: ‘That’s enough. I deserve to be able to return to my regular life”.’

Read here (New York Times, May 10, 2020)

We need a Covid-19 law right now

‘When I am asked what businesses need from a legal perspective in this Covid crisis, I come up with a critical minimum list of three, for our local small and medium enterprises (SMEs). First, breathing space to earn income and turn around a cash flow deficit to meet debts. This translates into: (a) freezing of demands for payment, and (b) freezing of legal actions... Second, protection from eviction from business premises, and repossession of machinery, equipment and assets that are essential to generating revenue, for a similar period of time. This is fundamental to SMEs’ ability to carry on business as a going concern... The third measure required is then, assistance with the restructuring of debts.’

Read here (FocusMalaysia, May 9, 2020)

France had Covid-19 in November, hospital says after analysis of chest scans

‘Study finds person who had the disease 10 weeks earlier than the country detected cases. Contagion believed to have spread slowly until the end of February before accelerating rapidly...

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 8, 2020)

Study shows most people carry antibodies after recovery from coronavirus

‘A new study offers a glimmer of hope in the grim fight against the coronavirus: Nearly everyone who has had the disease - regardless of age, sex or severity of illness - makes antibodies to the virus. The study, posted online on Tuesday (May 5) but not yet reviewed by experts, also hints that anyone who has recovered from infection may safely return to work - although it is unclear how long their protection might last.’

Read here (Straits Times, May 8, 2020)

University of Hong Kong study finds eyes are ‘important route’ for coronavirus, up to 100 times more infectious than Sars

‘The eyes are an important route for the coronavirus into the human body, according to University of Hong Kong research which found the strain was up to 100 times more infectious than severe acute respiratory syndrome and bird flu in two facial orifices tested by the public health experts. Laboratory tests revealed the “virus level” of SARS-Cov-2 – the strain of coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease – was far greater than for Sars in the upper respiratory airways and conjunctiva, the cells lining the surfaces of the eyes.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 8, 2020)

Mixed reactions as SOPs rule the day

‘As we're deadlocked on how to jumpstart the economy or flatten the curve, it'd be useful to reflect what Gerald R. Ford, the 38th United States president (American presidents were taken seriously until very recently), had to say on dubiety: "History and experience tell us that moral progress comes not in comfortable and complacent times, but out of trial and confusion." There you go, we still have to fine-tune many issues before the "new normal" settles in. Whatever the procedures, there must be greater uniformity as tales of different strokes for different folk were aplenty in the treatment of some MCO offenders.’

Read here (New Straits Times, May 8, 2020)

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19

‘Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.’

Read here (Science, May 8, 2020)

How coronavirus spreads and why it affects countries differently

New study analysing dozens of actual Covid-19 clusters from around the world shows enclosed spaces are hotbeds of the virus... Using these and other studies, Dr Cevik concludes that they suggest (not prove) the following:

• Close and prolonged contact is required for transmission of the virus. 
• Risk is highest in enclosed environments such as houses, care facilities, public transport, bars and other indoor spaces where people congregate.
• Casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic. 
• Susceptibility to infection increases with age.

Read here (The Telegraph, May 8, 2020)

The coronavirus was an emergency until Trump found out who was dying

‘This is a very old and recognizable story—political and financial elites displaying a callous disregard for the workers of any race who make their lives of comfort possible. But in America, where labor and race are so often intertwined, the racial contract has enabled the wealthy to dismiss workers as both undeserving and expendable. White Americans are also suffering, but the perception that the coronavirus is largely a black and brown problem licenses elites to dismiss its impact. In America, the racial contract has shaped the terms of class war for centuries; the COVID contract shapes it here.’

Read here (The Atlantic, May 8, 2020)

‘I thought stage IV cancer was bad enough... Then came a pandemic during the presidency of Donald Trump.’

‘I’m one of the people all of this social distancing is helping to stay alive, so far. I belong to the group of people—the infirm, the weak—who certain conservatives have said should offer themselves up to the coronavirus. I’m part of the “cure” that mustn’t be worse than “the problem,” according to Donald Trump. Glenn Beck seems to think we should show our patriotism by volunteering to be killed by the virus rather than “kill the country.”

Read here (The Atlantic, May 8, 2020. Pre-published for June issue)

Would you report people who break the rules?

‘Outside of official hotlines - thousands have also engaged in online shaming forums. The largest Singaporean "Covidiot" group on Facebook has over 26,000 members. It's littered with grainy pictures of alleged breaches - usually taken from some distance - the safety of one's apartment balcony.’

Read here (BBC, May 7, 2020)

Young women among worst hit by coronavirus job cuts

‘Social security Institution Kela received more than 120,000 unemployment benefit applications between mid-March and the end of April, more than three times the number of applications during the same period last year. This is according to Helsinki Graduate School of Economics (GSE)'s analysis that combined Kela's application data with taxpayer's information on the applicants' professional background. According to the results, young women aged 20–24 make up the majority of Kela's unemployment benefit applicants.’

Read here (UUTISET, May 7, 2020)

How swamped preprint servers are blocking bad coronavirus research

‘Howard Bauchner, the editor-in-chief of JAMA, notes that low-quality submissions are rising. Journals in the JAMA Network have received 53% more submissions in the first quarter of this year than in the same period in 2019. “Many of these are related to COVID-19, but most are of low quality,” Bauchner says.

‘To address the need for rapid review, a group of publishers and scholarly-communication organizations announced an initiative last month to accelerate the publication of COVID-19 papers using measures such as asking people with relevant expertise to join a list of rapid reviewers. The initiative’s members include Outbreak Science Rapid PREreview, a platform where researchers can request or provide swift reviews of outbreak-related preprints.’

Read here (Nature, May 7, 2020)

Access to lifesaving medical resources for African countries: COVID-19 testing and response, ethics, and politics

‘Having navigated Ebola, HIV, and tuberculosis epidemics, and a range of annual, sporadic, and concurrent outbreaks, several African countries have unparalleled disease response capacity. African governments are offering rare examples of effective international cooperation on COVID-19. The African Union started early to strengthen response with readiness assessments, an emergency ministerial meeting, and a continental strategy. However, with a highly transmissible and fast spreading virus these strengths can quickly be overwhelmed.’

Read here (The Lancet, May 7, 2020)

US FDA grants an EUA for the first CRISPR-based diagnostic test

‘The US FDA granted an EUA for the first CRISPR-based diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2. CRISPR technologies have been developed for a wide variety of uses, including gene editing and gene drives. The Sherlock CRISPR SARS-CoV-2 test kit works by programming a CRISPR molecule to detect specific parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Once the CRISPR system binds to its target site, a signal is released that can then be detected by researchers running the test. Sherlock stands for “Specific High-sensitivity Enzymatic Reporter unLOCKing.” With the appropriate, corresponding instrumentation, this test kit could be used at the point of care, and results can be reported within minutes.’

Download here (US FDA, May 6, 2020)

Guides to the other side: The problem-solvers working to get us through the pandemic

‘They are immigrants and the children of immigrants, public servants, people on their second careers. They are planners and problem-solvers. What they lack in swagger they make up for in empathy, skill and statistical rigor. Their greatest power is their ability to learn from the mistakes of the past. They are the right people in the right place at the right moment, like physician-researcher Andre Kalil, a veteran of past epidemics trying to find a cure for this pandemic, and Anar Yukhayev, a New York obstetrician-gynecologist who was severely ill with covid-19 when he enrolled in a clinical trial for an untested treatment. “If there was any chance it could potentially help someone,” Yukhayev said, “it was the least I could do.”

‘They don’t offer easy answers or miracle cures; they know there is no resurrecting the lives they once had. Still, they’re giving what they can to a moment that demands it. When it is most difficult to imagine the world getting better, they’ve summoned the creativity — and the courage — to invent the world anew.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 7, 2020)

US mayor says he had coronavirus last year, worried people dismissed it as bad flu

‘Michael Melham, the mayor of Belleville, New Jersey, told the Global Times via a statement that he visited his primary care physician on April 29 and asked to have his blood tested for antibodies related to COVID-19 as he suspected that he had been potentially positive for coronavirus in late November, but dismissed it because he kept hearing the first cases were in January.

‘The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on January 21 the first case was a man who had returned to the Seattle area after visiting Wuhan.

‘Within five minutes of the blood test, the doctor shared the positive antibody results with the mayor, prompting Melham to think back to the New Jersey League of Municipalities Conference in Atlantic City in November, when he recalled driving back up the Garden State Parkway on Thursday, November 21 not feeling well, suspecting the reason was a mix of exhaustion and dehydration from the three-day event.’

Read here (Global Times, May 7, 2020)

Patterns of pain: What Covid-19 can teach us about how to be human

‘Our institutions will need to be rebuilt with transparency, with heart and by learning from the people who have been staffing them, not just the managers and owners. Doctors, nurses, carers and delivery people have things to say about how their institutions could be better run. The body politic and the politics of the bodies that make up our world must be reconfigured, and we need to start thinking about that now.

‘I conclude with Freud: “The aim of psychoanalysis is to turn hysteria into ordinary human unhappiness.” That is an accomplishment for an individual and for a society. We cannot escape unhappiness. It is constitutive of being human, just as are creativity, courage, ambition, attachment and love. Let’s embrace the complexity of what it means to be human in this time of sorrow as we think and feel our way to come out of this, wiser, humbler and more connected.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 7, 2020)

COVID-19 death rate sinking? Data reveals a complex reality

‘David Spiegelhalter, Professor of Public Understanding of Risk from the University of Cambridge, notes the differences in each country: "I would say the all-cause death number is the really unbiased measure of the impact of this epidemic. And it's the one I look up far more closely," he told DW. Data collected by DW both on all-cause deaths and COVID-19 deaths shows: Thousands more people are dying directly or indirectly due to COVID-19 than the official numbers suggest. DW's data analysis focused on Spain, England and Wales, but indicates a pattern present in other countries too.’

Read here (DW, May 7, 2020)

Lianhua Qingwen (TCM product) approved for sale in Singapore

‘Lianhua Qingwen, a recommended medicine for treating patients with mild COVID-19 symptoms, has been approved as a Chinese proprietary medicine by the Health Sciences Authority in Singapore. The designation means the product can be sold in the country as a medicine, the drug’s manufacturer said.’

Read here (GMP News, May 7, 2020) 

Five ways the pandemic is changing the world for the better: An interview with UCI philosopher Aaron James

(1) Telecommuting and flexible work schedules are being normalised. (2) Universal basic income is gaining bipartisan support. (3) Contributing to society is about more than making money. (4) Climate change progress is being driven by renewable energy capitalism. (5) Turns out the pandemic may be a vaccine against assholes.

Read here (University of California, Irvine, May 7, 2020)

China could cut US debt holdings in response to White House Covid-19 compensation threats, analysts say

‘China may move to reduce its vast holdings of US Treasury securities in the coming months in response to a resurgence in trade tensions and a war of words between the world’s two largest economies over the origins and handling of the coronavirus outbreak, analysts said. US news reports indicated that White House officials have debated several measures to offset the cost of the coronavirus outbreak, including cancelling some or all of the nearly US$1.1 trillion debt that the United States government owes China. While analysts added that the US was highly unlikely to take the “nuclear option”, the mere fact that the idea has been discussed could well prompt Beijing to seek to insulate itself from the risk by reducing its US government debt holdings.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 6, 2020)

Genetic mutation study finds new coronavirus spread swiftly around the world in late 2019

‘A genetic analysis of samples from more than 7,500 people infected with Covid-19 suggests that the new coronavirus spread quickly around the world late last year and is adapting to its human hosts, scientists said on Wednesday (May 6). A study by scientists at University College London's (UCL) Genetics Institute found almost 200 recurrent genetic mutations of the new coronavirus - Sars-CoV-2 - which the researchers said showed how it may be evolving as it spreads in people.’

Read here (Straits Times, May 6, 2020)

Virus outbreak in India market could cause cases to snowball

‘Health officials are rushing to contain a coronavirus outbreak in one of Asia’s largest fruit and vegetable markets in the southern Indian city of Chennai. So far, the market has been linked to more than 500 cases in several districts of Tamil Nadu state and adjacent Kerala state. Over 7,000 people with connections to the Koyambedu market are being traced and quarantined, said J. Radhakrishnan, the leader of Chennai's response to the coronavirus.

‘The market, which had remained open during India's six-week virus lockdown, is central to the region’s food supply chain. The challenge for public health officials is to track the many traders, workers and shoppers who visited the market. Experts said the virus cluster has exposed India’s poor surveillance during the pandemic. They said the country’s long denial of how prevalent the virus was resulted in people not taking precautions, and warned that the market cluster could result in cases in India snowballing.’

Read here (ABC News, May 6, 2020)

World faces rare ‘inflationary depression,’ says Keynes scholar

‘The world economy could face a unique “inflationary depression” as it emerges from lockdowns, with government spending propping up demand even as unemployment soars, according to economic historian Robert Skidelsky. What makes the economic shock from the coronavirus different to the Great Depression, he said, is that shuttering industries to control the disease has yet to cause a plunge in purchasing power -- largely because governments have stepped in to subsidize wages.’

Read here (Bloomberg, May 6, 2020)

For the record: Are Gates and Rockefeller using their influence to set agenda in poor states?

‘Study identifies Bill and Melinda Gates and Rockefeller foundations among rich donors that are close to government and may be skewing priorities... Ultra-rich philanthropists and their foundations have increasing influence on decision-making and are setting the global health and agriculture agenda in developing countries, according to a major study (pdf). Using their immense wealth and influence with political and scientific elites, organisations like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation and others are promoting solutions to global problems that may undermine the UN and other international organisations, says the report by the independent Global Policy Forum, which monitors the work of UN bodies and global policymaking.’

Read here (The Guardian, Jan 15, 2016)

Download report here (Global Policy Forum, November 2015)

The problem with stories about dangerous coronavirus mutations

‘There’s no clear evidence that the pandemic virus has evolved into significantly different forms—and there probably won’t be for months...

‘As if the pandemic weren’t bad enough, on April 30, a team led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory released a paper that purportedly described “the emergence of a more transmissible form” of the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. This new form, the team wrote, “began spreading in Europe in early February.” Whenever it appeared in a new place, including the U.S., it rapidly rose to dominance. Its success, the team suggested, is likely due to a single mutation, which is now “of urgent concern.”

‘The paper has not yet been formally published or reviewed by other scientists. But on May 5, the Los Angeles Times wrote about it, claiming that “a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than [the] original.” That story quickly went … well … viral.

‘But “the conclusions are overblown,” says Lisa Gralinski of the University of North Carolina, who is one of the few scientists in the world who specializes in coronaviruses. “To say that you’ve revealed the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 without ever actually testing it isn’t the type of thing that makes me feel comfortable as a scientist.” She and other virologists I’ve spoken with who were not involved in the Los Alamos research agree that the paper’s claims are plausible, but not justified by the evidence it presents. More important, they’re not convinced different strains of the coronavirus exist at all.’

Read here (The Atlantic, May 6, 2020)

These are the ‘10 plain truths’ about the coronavirus pandemic, according to former CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden

1. “It’s really bad” in New York City
2. It’s “just the beginning”
3. Data is a “very powerful weapon against this virus”
4. We need to “box the virus in”
5. We must find the balance
6. Protect the “frontline heroes”
7. Protect our most vulnerable people, too
8. Governments and private companies need to work together
9. We must not neglect non-Covid health issues
10. Preparedness is paramount

Read here (CNN, May 6, 2020)

Singaporeans to be given improved reusable masks in third nationwide mask distribution exercise

‘Singaporeans will receive improved reusable masks soon, with the Government embarking on a third mask distribution exercise towards the end of this circuit breaker period. The new cloth masks will have higher protective qualities and also be more comfortable to wear for a long period of time, said Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing on Wednesday (May 6). Over the last few weeks, the Government has been working with local manufacturers and A*Star to improve on the materials used for the reusable cloth masks.’

Read here (Straits Times, May 6, 2020)

The coming post-Covid anarchy: Kevin Rudd

‘As with other historical inflection points, three factors will shape the future of the global order: changes in the relative military and economic strength of the great powers, how those changes are perceived around the world, and what strategies the great powers deploy. Based on all three factors, China and the United States have reason to worry about their global influence in the post-pandemic world.

Read here (Foreign Affairs, May 6, 2020)

From Hong Kong to Britain, governments ranked poorly for their response to Covid-19

‘From Hong Kong to Britain, governments ranked poorly for their response to Covid-19. Survey of 23 economies finds ‘major cracks’ in self-belief across the Western world. China, Vietnam and India have impressed with their responses to Covid-19, while Hong Kong and Japan languish at the bottom.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 6, 2020)

When did Covid-19 first appear in the US?

‘A US mayor claims he had COVID-19 last November, over one month before China reported its initial cases. If this was really the case, how did he get it and from where? How long ago did the virus start spreading in the US? In this episode of Getting to the Point, CGTN anchor Liu Xin asks the big question.’

View here (CGTN, Youtube, May 6, 2020)

Six flaws in the arguments for reopening

Leana S. Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor at George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, debunks the six reasons offered by the US government to open up the economy. She says: “Most states are reopening to some degree this week, even as public-health experts warn that it’s too soon.”

Read here (Washington Post, May 6, 2020)

We can beat the virus only by protecting human rights

‘Perhaps the ultimate threat is from governments that assume excessively broad “emergency” powers. International human rights law recognizes that certain rights — such as our right to travel or congregate during an infectious-disease outbreak — must give way in time of crisis, so long as restrictions are lawful, necessary and proportionate. Yet leaders around the world are using the pandemic to strengthen their rule, dismantle checks and balances, and escape accountability at the expense of our rights. All of these behaviors run counter to effective health-care policy and can easily backfire.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 6, 2020)

Experts differ over states’ CMCO non-compliance

‘Law experts differ on the refusal of some states to implement the conditional movement control order (conditional MCO) based on various interpretations of Article 81 of the Federal Constitution.

‘While lawyer Derek Fernandez said the states have a constitutional obligation to follow what has been gazetted as law by the Federal Government (if the states have yet to have their own laws on Covid-19), former judge Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram said it is not so simple.’

Read here (The Star, May 6, 2020)

National action plan for expanding and adapting the healthcare system for the duration of the Covid pandemic

This 24-page report by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security offers answers and recommendations related to the following problems, for which there are tractable solutions:

• How can we improve infection prevention in hospitals and maintain a robust supply chain for personal protective equipment (PPE)?
• What approach should we take to restarting deferred healthcare services?
• What financial support is needed for hospitals and healthcare providers?
• How should the healthcare workforce be sustained and augmented?
• How can we provide mental health support for healthcare workers in this crisis?
• How can we provide medical care and sick leave for all people in the United States?
• How can we make telemedicine a new normal?
• How can we reduce the number of undiagnosed infectious diseases in our hospitals?
• How can we better protect emergency medical services (EMS) personnel from infectious diseases?
• How can we better coordinate the healthcare response to COVID and the next pandemic?

Read and download here (Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, May 5, 2020)

S’pore’s youngest Covid-19 casualty was declared virus-free a week before she died

‘The husband and three children of Ms Salha Mesbee - the youngest patient here to die from the coronavirus - gathered at her bedside in the intensive care unit (ICU) at the Ng Teng Fong General Hospital just hours before her death.

‘Ms Salha, 58, had been declared virus-free nine days earlier, but the infection had already taken a toll on her body, her daughter told The Straits Times. Her vital organs, including her kidneys and liver, were failing and she was in a bad shape.’

Read here (Straits Times, May 5, 2020)

Sympathy for the epidemiologists: Paul Krugman

‘...the White House probably likes IHME [University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation] less today than it did yesterday: the institute just drastically revised its projected death total upward, from 72,000 to 134,000. Documents obtained by The New York Times suggest that modelers within the U.S. government have also revised death projections sharply upward...

‘So let me give a shout-out to the hard-working, much-criticized epidemiologists trying to get this pandemic right. You may take a lot of abuse when you get it wrong, which you unavoidably will on occasion. But you’re doing what must be done. Also, welcome to my world.’

Read here (New York Times, May 5, 2020)

Yuval Noah Harari talks about governance, surveillance, misinformation and the significance of Covid-19

The coronavirus pandemic has presented humanity with an almighty shock. Our evermore interconnected and technologically advanced societies are now in lockdown and we are fearful for our health and economic futures thanks to an invisible virus. HARDtalk’s Stephen Sackur speaks to the Israeli historian and best-selling author Yuval Noah Harari. What 21st century lesson can we draw from the spread of Covid-19?

View here (BBC, Youtube, May 5, 2020)

What Covid-19 antibody tests can and cannot tell us

‘Dozens of antibody tests for the novel coronavirus have become available in recent weeks. And early results from studies of such serological assays in the U.S. and around the world have swept headlines. Despite optimism about these tests possibly becoming the key to a return to normal life, experts say the reality is complicated and depends on how results are used.

‘Antibody tests could help scientists understand the extent of COVID-19’s spread in populations. Because of limitations in testing accuracy and a plethora of unknowns about immunity itself, however, they are less informative about an individual’s past exposure or protection against future infection.’

Read here (Scientific American, May 5, 2020)

Shocking draft FEMA report sees 200,000 Covid-19 cases, 3,000 deaths daily by June 1

‘The shocking numbers come just as dozens of states begin to drop strict social distancing requirements and open businesses to workers and customers at President Donald Trump’s urging. A rate of 3,000 deaths a day would be about 90,000 deaths a month. That death toll rate would be a 70% increase from the current average of 1,750 a day. The number of current cases of COVID-19 in the nation is about 25,000 daily.’

Read here (Huffington Post, May 5, 2020). Download here

Argentina responds boldly to coronavirus crisis

‘Despite Argentina’s fiercely divisive politics, the new President insisted on standing with leaders from across the political spectrum in a rare display of unity to announce the 19 March lockdown. The national government is working closely with state governors as well as all health providers, securing private sector cooperation without nationalization.

‘Meanwhile, the armed forces are building triage centres in case of a surge in infections while social, religious and business groups work together to deliver food to more than two million in the greater Buenos Aires area alone.’

Read here (IPS News, May 5, 2020)

Paul Garner: For 7 weeks I have been through a roller coaster of ill health, extreme emotions, and utter exhaustion

‘In mid March I developed covid-19. For almost seven weeks I have been through a roller coaster of ill health, extreme emotions, and utter exhaustion. Although not hospitalised, it has been frightening and long. The illness ebbs and flows, but never goes away. Health professionals, employers, partners, and people with the disease need to know that this illness can last for weeks, and the long tail is not some “post-viral fatigue syndrome”—it is the disease. People who have a more protracted illness need help to understand and cope with the constantly shifting, bizarre symptoms, and their unpredictable course.

‘The aim of this piece is to get this message out: for some people the illness goes on for a few weeks. Symptoms come and go, are strange and frightening. The exhaustion is severe, real, and part of the illness. And we all need support and love from the community around us.’

Read here (BMJ Opinion, May 5, 2020)

The invisible pandemic: Our most important task is not to stop spread but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care

‘COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.’

Read here (The Lancet, May 5, 2020)

Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?

‘Veronica Anghel, a Romanian political scientist currently at Stanford University, said some countries in the region “are being given more credit than they should” for their responses. “Timing of lockdown is a blunt instrument, and a bad measure for authorities’ success,” said Anghel. She praised the response of some countries, including Czech Republic and Slovakia, both of which have comparatively well-funded healthcare systems. “But Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria are on the edge; any increase in cases will tip the system over,” she said.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 5, 2020)

Cook County searching for overlooked COVID-19 deaths as far back as November just ‘to cover our bases’

‘The Cook County Medical Examiner’s Office is planning to review a “handful” of cases dating as far back as November to determine whether some earlier coronavirus deaths were overlooked. “We don’t anticipate having [coronavirus] cases from November, but if we found that we had cases in November, we might want to look even earlier,” Derevyanny said. “Again, we don’t anticipate that, we just want to cover our bases and make sure that we have the most complete data we can for COVID-19.”

Read here (Chicago Sun Times, May 5, 2020)

Preparing for post-COVID-19 from the lens of sustainable development goals (SDGs): Insight from Malaysia

The Malaysian Social Science Association made five proposals for a post-COVID-19 Malaysia, all of which we feel are vital to hasten Malaysia’s recovery and increase resilience. They are:

1. Disaster preparedness: Build on the strengths of the Malaysian public healthcare system which has shown tremendous robustness and resilience in this crisis. Raise the level of disaster preparedness (SDG 3.d) through the use of Big Data for predictions and alerts, and maintain a ready stockpile of emergency supplies.  Ensure that the provision of public goods like healthcare remains the responsibility of the government (SDG 3.8)
2. Culture of civic responsibility: Keep up campaigns to promote personal hygiene, public cleanliness, and health and safety awareness as mutual responsibilities (SDG 4). Ensure an efficient system of participation and involvement by non-government organisations to alleviate the negative impacts on all people and ensure a better quality of life (SDG 16& SDG 17).
3. Sustainable risk-resilient game plan: Business and the broader economy need increased resiliency. In the short term, the Malaysian government needs to develop a comprehensive and sustainable social protection system to help the M/SMEs to cope with unprecedented economic situations (SDG10.4). Going forward, the country needs a people-centred economic policy; for instance, better policies on flexible work for both women and men...
4. High-speed cost-effective connectivity: Many daily activities have moved online – business functions, school, and university classes, and purchasing food and other essentials – but gaps do exist. We need to identify the gaps in our preparedness and connectivity so that all organisations are fully prepared for this eventuality (SDG 9.1). Connectivity needs to be cost-effective and available even in remote areas (SDG 9.c).
5. Research & innovation: Research and innovation are crucial for Malaysia to progress in this highly competitive world. Funding for high-quality research and innovation is a key part of that and the COVID-19 crisis makes such research and development more imperative and urgent. While financial resources are not easy to come by with the looming global economic recession, Malaysia should at least maintain its present level of R&D expenditure (1.44% of GDP) and increase it later when the situation allows ( SDG 4.7 and SDG 9.5).

Read here (United Nations University, May 5, 2020)

State v Federal impasse over lockdown relaxation order

‘Under the Federal Constitution (Article 81), state governments are obliged to make sure that states comply with federal law. Further, their action does “not impede or prejudice” the federal government’s authority.  In short, they must comply with regulations as these are part of federal law. Else it will be a violation of the state’s constitutional obligation. So, any abridgement of the federal law’s reach, or orders that are inconsistent with it, will constitute non-compliance.’

Read here (The Edge, May 5, 2020)

As some countries ease up, others are reimposing lockdowns amid a resurgence of coronavirus infections

As many parts of the world, including the United States, explore ways to ease restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus, countries that had already opened up are closing down again after renewed spikes in infections. [Lebanon, South Korea, China, Iran, Germany]

Such a resurgence of cases had been widely predicted by experts, but these increasing numbers come as a sobering reminder of the challenges ahead as countries chafing under the social and economic burdens of keeping their citizens indoors weigh the pros and cons of allowing people to move around again.

Read here (Washington Post, May 5, 2020)

Preparing a safe return to work

As businesses prepare to reopen amid the Covid-19 outbreak, employers face the challenge of ensuring a safe environment for their workforce. Social purpose organisation Think City has some guidelines. To access the full guide, please visit http://thinkcity.com.my/workplace-guides/⁣

Read here (The Edge, May 5, 2020)

Chow: No feedback was collected from the states on CMCO

‘No feedback was collected from the states on how the conditional movement control order (MCO) and standard operating procedure (SOP) should be done, the Penang Chief Minister has claimed. Chow Kon Yeow said as a result, the state government decided not to allow businesses to resume operations yesterday.’

Read here (The Star, May 5, 2020)

Defiance of the 9 States – The whirling wheels of Malaysian federalism

‘On 1st May 2020, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin announced that the MCO would be substantially lifted come 4th May 2020. The MCO will hence be superceded by a Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO).

‘In a stunning development, as many as 9 states have said they will not be following or complying fully with the Federal Government’s ease of movement and resumption of businesses at 100% capacity under the CMCO.

‘Is it unconstitutional for these States to not follow or fully comply with the Federal Government’s CMCO?’

Read here (Malaysian Public Law, May 2, 2020)

MITI urges state governments to follow Putrajaya's decision to relax the MCO

‘The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) today urged state governments to cooperate with the federal government's decision to implement the Conditional Movement Control Order or CMCO that allows almost all sectors of the economy to resume operations after almost two months of suspension under the MCO.

‘Failure to do so may result in the state governments facing the possibility of legal action from various parties, particularly industry players, Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali cautioned in a statement today.

‘As it is, Mohamed Azmin said various industry associations, including the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers and the Malay Chamber of Commerce of Malaysia, have issued statements calling for state governments not to stop companies from resuming their operations from today, the first day of the CMCO.’

Read here (The Edge, May 4, 2020)

See how a cough travels without a mask and with

A lab at Florida Atlantic University is simulating a human cough to understand how far and fast cough droplets can spread. The droplets travel as far as 12ft in 30 to 40 seconds.

View here (CNN, May 4, 2020)

UN humanitarian chief: After COVID-19, it’s in everyone’s interest to help the world's poorest countries

‘Our best estimate is that the cost of protecting the most vulnerable 10 per cent of people in the world’s poorest countries from the very worst impacts of the pandemic is approximately $90 billion. $90 billion is a lot of money. But it is an affordable sum of money. It is equivalent to just 1 per cent of the global stimulus package the world’s richest countries have put in place to save the global economy...

‘Some may be sceptical that additional resources of that magnitude can be generated in the current circumstances. That is not my experience. After the financial crisis of 2008 fundraising for UN-coordinated humanitarian appeals had increased by more than 40 per cent by 2010. That was a result of human generosity and empathy – but also a calculation of national interest in the donor countries.’

Read here (OCHA, May 4, 2020)

Govt needs a U-turn on conditional MCO

‘Yes, it is conditional, but it is physically impossible to ensure everyone complies. You need to give businesses more time to prepare for this, especially the smaller businesses – the small and medium enterprises or SMEs which employ about 70% of workers.

‘This is where infection is most likely – the most number of people are there and the ones most likely to ignore SOPs. They include all sorts of businesses – food and beverage, services, shops, workplaces – virtually all can reopen except for those that involve close contact and mass gatherings.’

Read here (FocusMalaysia, May 4, 2020)

‘Advance market commitment for Covid-19 vaccine’ by Gavi, the vaccine alliance

‘If the world is to beat COVID-19, we will need to develop one or more vaccines to protect us from it. And with thousands of people dying each week, not to mention an estimated US$ 2 trillion per year in lost economic activity, the pressure to protect the population and return life to normal has never been greater.

‘The positive news is that the global response in terms of vaccine development has been historic. Today, over 80 preclinical candidates are in development and seven have already progressed to human trials. This could well give us a better chance of getting more than one COVID-19 vaccine introduced in record-breaking time. However it also shines a light on another critical challenge: how to ensure that once a vaccine is available, it is accessible to everyone that needs it. We can only stop the pandemic if it is under control everywhere.’

Read here (Gavi, May 4, 2020)

Read more about Gavi here

Inventive routes back to normal life

‘Across the world, countries are embarking on enormous experiments in ending coronavirus lockdown measures - and others are looking on nervously, asking themselves what's the best way back to normality.

‘All these novel schemes, and many more, may help a return to some form of normality. But Ngaire Woods, professor of global economic governance at Oxford University, says easing lockdown requires us all to rethink our lives. "We have got to get testing tracing and isolating up and running fantastically well," she told Radio 4's Briefing Room. "We have to start thinking about preventative measures in public spaces and schools. We have got to manage the import of cases - so think about travel restrictions. That's a clear checklist in order to safely start lifting the lockdown."

‘Prof Woods says thinking will have to go far beyond just re-opening closed-down businesses. We may need to split workforces by age group - an example could be that older teachers must take their classes by video link. "Those are the questions we have to ask - they are not insurmountable problems. The alternative is to stay in a total lockdown."

Read here (BBC, May 4, 2020)

The next Apple Watch could be a powerful COVID-19 early warning system

‘The Apple Watch already has a number of sensors that could effectively detect early signs of COVID-19, and the most important one—a pulse oximeter—may be on the way.

‘Toward the end of his life, one of Steve Jobs’s hopes for Apple was that it could play a role in helping people stay healthy. After he died, that ambition was most clearly expressed in the Apple Watch. The company has always pushed to make its wearable something more than a fitness tracker—a more powerful, clinically relevant device.’

Read here (Fast Company, March 4, 2020)

Historic financial decline hits doctors, dentists and hospitals — despite covid-19 — threatening overall economy

‘Most elective surgeries nationwide were postponed beginning in mid-March. Dentists offices were closed. Physicians stopped seeing all but the sickest patients in their offices. Stay-at-home orders didn’t just prevent people from dining in restaurants — they led people to avoid medical services, too, amid concerns about the disease the virus causes, covid-19. More than 200 hospitals, including Children’s National Hospital in Washington, have furloughed workers, according to a tally by Becker’s Hospital Review.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 4, 2020)

French doctors say they found a Covid-19 patient from December

‘There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought. Doctors at a Paris hospital say they've found evidence that one patient admitted in December was infected with Covid-19. If verified, this finding would show that the virus was already circulating in Europe at that time -- well before the first known cases were diagnosed in France or hotspot Italy.’

Read here (CNN, May 4, 2020)

FDA steps up scrutiny of coronavirus antibody tests to ensure accuracy

‘The action was the latest about-face in the administration’s coronavirus response as it seeks to fix a flawed testing response that has been criticized as either too restrictive or too lenient. Earlier this year, the FDA agency was hammered for moving too slowly in allowing academic medical centers and others to develop diagnostic tests for the virus that might have made them more widely available. Then, critics say, it swung too far in the other direction in allowing the antibody tests to go unvetted.

‘The result, they complained, was a flood of products of dubious quality that confused hospitals, doctors and consumers — “a wild, wild West” environment, said Scott Becker, chief executive officer of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents state and local public laboratories.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 4, 2020)

The coronavirus pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis

‘Three months into the coronavirus pandemic, America is on the verge of another health crisis, with daily doses of death, isolation and fear generating widespread psychological trauma. Federal agencies and experts warn that a historic wave of mental health problems is approaching: depression, substance abuse, post-traumatic stress disorder and suicide. Just as the initial coronavirus outbreak caught hospitals unprepared, the country’s mental health system — vastly underfunded, fragmented and difficult to access before the pandemic — is even less prepared to handle this coming surge.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 4, 2020)

Malaysia is beating all these brutal COVID-19 expectations

‘To the casual observer, Malaysia’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak may seem bungled. Media reports highlighted a mass religious gathering later linked to thousands of infections and the Ministry of Women’s advice that wives maintain a presentable appearance and avoiding nagging and sarcasm under lockdown. But Malaysia’s response deserves greater recognition as a meaningful example for countries that have insecure borders, significant mobile and vulnerable populations, larger households in denser living conditions and less than ideal political situations.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, May 4, 2020)

UrbanFutures: Building a trust economy

‘In a time of crisis, trust is a key currency. Not just trust in the system, but as a foundation for economic recovery. Here, we look at the essence of what makes an economy tick, how this relates to the current Covid-19 crisis and its impact on the most vulnerable, and the role of government in building a bounce-back economy based on trust.

‘Developing the trust economy involves three key aspects: (1) An enhanced role for government (2) Hyperlocalism and digital infrastructure (3) Protecting the welfare of the people.’

Read here (The Edge, May 4, 2020)

Nurses are playing a crucial role in this pandemic — as always

‘Nursing’s contributions to improving the public’s health during times of crisis dates back to the days of Nightingale, modern nursing’s founder. In 1918 during the disastrous influenza pandemic, nurses were steadfast in modeling the teachings of Nightingale, a staunch supporter of good handwashing, proper sanitation and sound preventive measures. Members of the Visiting Nurses Associations made home visits to patients providing critical nursing care as one of the only treatment measures available during that time. Nurses were vigilant in promoting the benefits of being exposed to fresh air, practicing good hand hygiene and maintaining social isolation while conducting home visits to patients.’

Read here (Scientific American, May 4, 2020)

In The NYTimes, only white leaders stand out

‘The New York Times recently published a list of “true leaders” in the fight against COVID-19. They spend exactly one sentence on Asia and the rest on white leaders that mostly did worse than Iran. The structural racism is mind-boggling, and it’s getting people killed.

‘According to the NYTimes, Iran Completely and Utterly Botched Its Response to the Coronavirus, but countries with higher mortality rates like Germany, Italy, Sweden, and Denmark are listed as true leaders. It makes no sense. It’s just racism, so structural that the Editorial Board can’t even see it. It’s built into the edifice of the paper itself.’

Read here (Medium, May 4, 2020)

The curse of ‘The Lucky Country’: In search of economic antidotes to Covid-19

‘The human tragedy and the knock-on economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis have sparked intense emotions. The past few months have triggered fear and uncertainty in even the most rational Australians. In McKinsey’s weekly sentiment polling, the majority of respondents say they are very or extremely concerned with all strands of the COVID‑19 situation—from the economy to their health to the length of the shutdown (and these figures are increasing each week) (Exhibit 1). This has coalesced into an arresting statistic: almost 80 percent of Australians say they are unsure or pessimistic about the country’s economic recovery.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, May 4, 2020)

Roche's serology test with ‘specificity greater than 99.8% and sensitivity of 100%’ gets FDA approval

‘Roche intends to provide tens of millions of tests worldwide by the end of May, and the company is working to expand production capacity. The Roche test requires a blood draw instead of a finger prick. The test takes approximately 18 minutes to run and is fully automated, and the testing system can perform as many as 300 tests per hour.’

Read here (Roche press release, May 3, 2020)

Threatened, maligned, jailed: Journalism in the coronavirus pandemic

‘What we are currently seeing is not the arrival of new authoritarian regimes or attacks on freedom of the press, but rather an increase in tendencies that already existed before the pandemic hit. One could say the crisis has hardened the approach many authoritarian or dictatorial governments have taken against journalists.

‘We will not be able to say with certainty just how many journalists have disappeared or been jailed since the coronavirus pandemic began until the end of the year. However, we can report that as of today at least 231 professional journalists and 115 so-called citizen journalists and bloggers — that is, people disseminating information on authoritarian governments via YouTube or Facebook — are currently behind bars. Another 14 media professionals (photographers, camera operators, editors, etc.) are in jail as well.’

Read here (DW, May 3, 2020)

Why are some people testing positive more than once?

Dr Maria Van Kerkhove of the World Health Organisation (WHO) says some people are testing positive more than once for coronavirus - but it doesn't mean they have been reinfected.

Speaking on The Andrew Marr Show, she said doctors were finding instances where "dead cells" that emerged during the healing process of the lungs were testing positive for Covid-19, but the individuals themselves were not reinfected.

View here (BBC, May 3, 2020)

Vienna Airport to offer coronavirus tests to avoid quarantine

‘Vienna Airport will offer onsite coronavirus testing from Monday to enable passengers entering Austria to avoid having to be quarantined for 14 days. Passengers arriving at the airport have been required to present a health certificate showing a negative COVID-19 result which is no older than four days, or go into quarantine. From Monday passengers can have a molecular biological (polymerise chain reaction or PCR) COVID-19 test at the airport, and get the result in two to three hours, the airport said.’

Read here (Reuters, May 3, 2020)

Coronavirus poses a tough question: Did NYC essential workers die in the line of duty?

‘Not since Sept. 11 has an outside threat so swiftly devastated the city’s ranks, and as the virus continues its onslaught, it is likely to leave more municipal employees in its wake. This is forcing city and state officials to confront an ethical dilemma of untold proportions: Did employees who came to work during a pandemic-induced quarantine die as a direct result? What responsibility does the government have to their surviving families if the virus cannot be traced to their time on the clock? And with a death toll still climbing, what is the financial cost to the city’s coffers as a recession looms?’

Read here (Politico, May 3, 2020)

SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019

Summary of the report:

• Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
• Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
• This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Read here (Science Direct, May 3, 2020)

The Covid-19 riddle: Why does the virus wallop some places and spare others?

This article delves into areas like age, cultural factors, heat and light, and early and strict interventions.

‘Time may still prove the greatest equalizer: The Spanish flu that broke out in the United States in 1918 seemed to die down during the summer only to come roaring back with a deadlier strain in the fall, and a third wave the following year. It eventually reached far-flung places like islands in Alaska and the South Pacific and infected a third of the world’s population.

“We are really early in this disease,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Research Institute. “If this were a baseball game, it would be the second inning and there’s no reason to think that by the ninth inning the rest of the world that looks now like it hasn’t been affected won’t become like other places.”

Read here (New York Times, May 3, 2020)

Covid-19’s race and class warfare

‘America has never been comfortable discussing the inequalities that America created, let alone addressing them. America loves a feel-good, forget-the-past-let’s-start-from-here mantra. But, this virus is exploiting these man-made inequalities and making them impossible to ignore. It is demonstrating the incalculable callousness of wealth and privilege that would willingly thrust the less well off into the most danger for a few creature comforts.’

Read here (New York Times, May 3, 2020)

MCO and the failure to follow the rule of law

‘We are now told that we can go back to work on Monday by no less than the PM himself.  The National Security Council has issued SOP’s for businesses to open. MITI also appears to be approving the opening of businesses on terms imposed by them.

‘All this in the face of existing PCID-MILA Regulations and the provisions of the PCIDA which expressly confers power only upon the Minister of Health to formulate and enforce regulations relating to activities and movement in infected areas. And so, the confusion and uncertainties continue whilst little is known of what the Ministry of Health has to say about all this.’

Read here (FocusMalaysia, May 3, 2020)

Covid-19 and the harsh reality of empathy distribution

‘Empathy has a substantial genetic contribution, about half as much as height, a group of researchers found in 2018. Inevitably, some individuals inherit more pro-empathy genes than average. Moreover, since they are likely to be born from empathic parents, such children will also witness empathic behaviors and be rewarded for performing them. Thus, learning and family values reinforce the pro-social neural circuitry. Such individuals are likely to become professional caregivers.’

Read here (Scientific American, May 2, 2020)

Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery

‘The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a report released Thursday. They recommended that the US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.’

Read here (CNN, May 2, 2020)

It’s unfair to blame China for coronavirus pandemic, Lancet editor tells state media

‘The editor-in-chief of The Lancet has said it is “not helpful” and “unfair” to blame China for being the source of the Covid-19 pandemic in an interview with Chinese state media. Richard Horton said the international community should instead work with the Chinese authorities in dealing with the outbreak.

‘His comments came after the US top spy agency said that the intelligence community did not believe the virus had been man-made or genetically modified, but said it will continue to examine whether the outbreak “began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan”.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, May 2, 2020)

The pieces of the puzzle of covid-19’s origin are coming to light

‘Many scientists think that with so many biologists actively hunting for bat viruses, and gain-of-function work becoming more common, the world is at increasing risk of a laboratory-derived pandemic at some point. “One of my biggest hopes out of this pandemic is that we address this issue—it really worries me,” says Dr Pilch. Today there are around 70 bsl-4 sites in 30 countries. More such facilities are planned...

‘The question of whether they really are [unrecognised zoonoses], and how those threats may stack up, needs attention. That attention needs laboratories. It also needs a degree of open co-operation that America is now degrading with accusations and reductions in funding, and that China has taken steps to suppress at source. That suppression has done nothing to help the country; indeed, by supporting speculation, it may yet harm it.’

Read here (The Economist, May 2, 2020)

The British charlatan style has been sent packing by too much reality

‘[The present administration's] time has gone. I am not saying we are about to enter a better age of competent government. Hard times are rarely good times for the centre left and it looks as if we are heading into the hardest of times. Angry people cling to what they have in a slump. They blame foreigners and turn to shop-soiled saviours. Who knows, after populism with a smirk on its face could come populism with the authentic snarl.

‘What’s over is the glib, deceitful spirit of 2016 with its false promise that bills need never be paid. The Brexit right has attempted a final rally. It dismissed warnings about public health as “over the top” just as it dismissed warnings about Brexit as “Project Fear” and assured us that “German carmakers” or some other knight on a shining unicorn would make everything all right.’

Read here (The Guardian, May 2, 2020)

Singapore: New safe distancing guidelines, standards for workplaces after Covid-19 circuit breaker

‘When workplace activities gradually resume after the circuit breaker lifts, the Government will need to put in place new guidelines and standards to ensure that they remain safe from potential Covid-19 outbreaks, National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said on Friday (May 1).Speaking at a virtual press conference, Mr Wong said these guidelines will build upon existing measures to ensure safe distancing in workplaces for workers in essential services, such as wearing masks at work or not having workers socialise among themselves.

‘These guidelines... will also be complemented by a testing regimen as well as some form of technology that can ensure better tracking and monitoring should a confirmed case emerge in the workplace.’

Read here (Straits Times, May 1, 2020)

US officials crafting retaliatory actions against China over coronavirus as President Trump fumes

‘Senior US officials are beginning to explore proposals for punishing or demanding financial compensation from China for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to four senior administration officials with knowledge of internal planning. The move could splinter already strained relations between the two superpowers at a perilous moment for the global economy.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 1, 2020)

Coronavirus concerns are not a carte blanche to snoop: Europe Human Rights Commissioner

‘As more and more countries resort to using digital tools to monitor and track their citizens, those measures must comply with privacy laws, writes Dunja Mijatovic, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights. She calls for a balance between privacy and health measures:

• ‘First of all, digital devices must be designed and used in compliance with privacy and non-discrimination norms. They must be anonymous, encrypted, decentralized, function on open source and be available to the largest number of people possible, thus bridging the digital divide. Their use must be voluntary, based on informed consent, restricted to the purposes of health protection, contain a clear time limit and be fully transparent. Users should be able to opt-out at any moment, deleting all their data, and be able to challenge intrusions into their private sphere through effective measures.
• ‘Secondly, laws must comply strictly with the right to privacy as protected by the laws of national constitutions and of the European Court of Human Rights.
• ‘Thirdly, government operations must be subject to judicial review, as well as monitoring by parliament and national human rights institutions to ensure accountability. Independent data protection authorities must test and approve technological devices before they are used.’

Read here (DW, May 1, 2020)

MMA: Public now the ‘frontliners’ in Covid-19 fight

‘Members of the public will now play the most important role in combating the Covid-19 pandemic, says the Malaysian Medical Association (MMA). Its president Dr N. Ganabaskaran said with the announcement of the conditional movement control order (MCO) by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the public must remain vigilant as the health crisis continues.

“As most businesses will resume operations on Monday (May 4), the public will now play the most important role in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic... The general public must now take on the role as frontliners, in battling the pandemic in public places by being disciplined in observing social distancing, personal hygiene and comply with the standard operating procedures (SOP) at all times or we can easily slip back into the ‘old norm’.’’

Read here (The Star, May 1, 2020)

Conditional MCO might cause third wave of infections, say health experts

Health experts are voicing concern over the move to ease the movement control order (MCO) by allowing businesses to reopen starting next week, warning that this might lead to new waves of Covid-19 infections.

Azrul Mohd Khalib, the executive director of the Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy, said people might be confused over the standard operating procedures (SOP) given the short time frame for preparation, warning also of non-compliance by others.

Read here (Free Malaysia Today, May 1, 2020)

List of banned activities during conditional MCO

The government has decided to reopen the economy from May 4 but some sectors will either still be barred from resuming business or subject to many conditions and a conditional movement control order (MCO) will be imposed.

This story contains (1) the list and (2) a number of related news stories pertaining to the conditional MCO announced by the Prime Minister on May 1, 2020.

Read here (Malaysiakini, May 1, 2020)

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister calls on developed countries to help Africa through Covid-19

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls on developed countries to help Africa through the coronavirus pandemic. The continent has low levels of healthcare spending and will struggle to implement social distancing measures. Ahmed calls for debt relief measures and additional financial aid packages from the IMF.

Read here (Project Syndicate, May 1, 2020)

Beijing-based company finds Covid-19 shot protects monkeys

‘For the first time, one of the many COVID-19 vaccines in development has protected an animal, rhesus macaques, from the new coronavirus. The vaccine, an old-fashioned formulation consisting of a chemically inactivated version of the virus, produced no obvious side effects in the monkeys; human trials began on 16 April. And encouraging monkey results for other vaccines are close behind.

‘Researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaques. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys' lungs. None developed a full-blown infection, and the monkeys given the highest dose of vaccine had the best response: Seven days after the animals received the virus, researchers could not detect it in their pharynx or lungs. Some of the lower dosed animals had a “viral blip” but also appeared to have controlled the infection, the Sinovac team reports in a paper published on 19 April on the preprint server bioRxiv.’

Read here (Science, May 1, 2020)

Can gut microbes predict Covid-19 severity?

‘COVID-19 is notorious for striking harder at older patients, often landing them in bed, hooked up to a ventilator. Once that happens, the odds get grim: according to one report, only one in seven intubated patients survived. No one knows exactly why some patients are affected more than others, but a new study from China (that has not yet been peer-reviewed) makes a provocative assertion: the health of the gut microbiome may predict the severity of the disease. The healthier the gut, the better the outcome. That may be something to cheer about, because you can improve your microbiome in a matter of days just by changing your diet. It could save your life.’

Read here (Psychology Today, May 1, 2020) and here (Medrxiv, April 25, 2020)

Famed HIV researcher on the race to find a Covid-19 treatment

‘David Ho is in a race against time to find a treatment for COVID-19. Fortunately it's the kind of race he's run before. Ho, the famed virologist and director and CEO of the Aaron Diamond AIDS research center at Columbia University, rose to prominence decades ago with his HIV research. Now he's working to develop a drug that can interrupt the coronavirus' ability to replicate, which, if successful, could lead to a treatment for COVID-19. His team is also studying antibody responses to the virus and is among dozens of labs racing to develop treatments.

‘The Jack Ma Foundation recently gave Ho and other researchers at Columbia University a $2.1 million grant to support their efforts to identify antiviral drugs and antibodies that can be used to fight the coronavirus.

‘Ho: My group is not so much working on a vaccine. We're trying to discover small-molecule drugs or develop antibodies that can be used either as prophylactics or therapeutics. We think the timeline for antibodies in particular can be much faster. We know we have the technology to fish out and construct very powerful antibodies that can be used to treat the infection, as well as prevent the infection.’

Read here (NBC News, May 1, 2020)

The rise of ‘health entertainment’ to convey lifesaving messages in the Covid-19 pandemic

‘An unprecedented global crisis demands unprecedented creativity in the health communication field. The world’s most trusted voices in public health urgently need to be heard by meeting their audiences on social media and capturing their attention through innovative message design. We’ll never come up with impactful, innovative solutions if we stay inside our comfort zone.’

Read here (Scientific American, May 1, 2020)

The post-pandemic future of work

‘Some work must be done to keep society functioning—the work, as social reproduction theorists have it, of life-making and sustaining—but what are the conditions under which people do it? If everyone had the right to live, to a home and health care regardless of whether or how much they worked, what would the incentives be for people to take up that socially necessary work? Would we distribute it equally, perhaps, rather than deciding that certain people are “essential” workers and the rest of us something else entirely? This moment, this crisis, is showing the brutality inherent in so many kinds of labor, and showing how unnecessary other work is. Perhaps it can also be an opportunity to question our most basic assumption: that work itself should be at the center of our lives.’

Read here (The New Republic, May 1, 2020)

Government researchers changed metric to measure coronavirus drug remdesivir during clinical trial

‘Government clinical trial investigators changed the primary metric for measuring the success of Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir as a coronavirus treatment two weeks before Anthony S. Fauci’s announcement that the drug would be the new “standard of care.”

‘Instead of counting how many people taking the drug were kept alive on ventilators or died, among other measures, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it would judge the drug primarily on a different outcome: how long it took surviving patients to recover.’

Read here (The Washington Post, May 1, 2020)

Major challenges remain in Covid-19 testing

‘The phrase “when we have adequate testing” has become the siren song within many conversations around return, namely in reopening the economy. Unfortunately, many of these conversations do not fully consider some critical issues around availability, test characteristics, and — importantly — test strategy. These issues suggest a need to rapidly consider other methods of protecting the population during reentry that can be implemented to complement testing. Such protective methods could include physical barriers, universal masking (while acknowledging supply-chain issues with personal protective equipment), and physical distancing in public spaces.’

Read here (Mckinsey & Co, May 2020)

Coronavirus vaccine: Where profit and public health collide

‘When it comes to developing medicines available for all populations in the world, the image of Big Pharma has long been tarnished. Supply bottlenecks for some specific drugs are often the result of the pricing policies pursued by major drugmakers, says Wasem [Jürgen Wasem, a professor for healthcare management at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany] — a claim, which is nonetheless "difficult to prove in most cases," he says. Sometimes, companies strive to keep supply artificially low, he says, to achieve higher market prices. Moreover, certain treatments are often never developed because there isn't a "commercial incentive" to undertake the effort, he adds.’

Read here (DW, May 1, 2020)

From surviving to thriving: Reimagining the post-COVID-19 return

‘In this article, we suggest that in order to come back stronger, companies should reimagine their business model as they return to full speed. The moment is not to be lost: those who step up their game will be better off and far more ready to confront the challenges—and opportunities—of the next normal than those who do not. There are four strategic areas to focus on: recovering revenue, rebuilding operations, rethinking the organization, and accelerating the adoption of digital solutions.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, May 1, 2020)

How life in our cities will look after the coronavirus pandemic

‘Cities are at the center of this pandemic, as they have been during so many plagues in history. The virus originated in a crowded city in central China. It spread between cities and has taken the most lives in cities. New York has become the world’s saddest, most dismal viral hotspot...

‘Cities thrive on the opportunities for work and play, and on the endless variety of available goods and services. If fear of disease becomes the new normal, cities could be in for a bland and antiseptic future, perhaps even a dystopian one. But if the world’s cities find ways to adjust, as they always have in the past, their greatest era may yet lie before them.

‘To help us make sense of urban life after the pandemic, Foreign Policy asked 11 leading thinkers from around the world to weigh in with their predictions. One of the contributors is Maimunah Mohd Sharif from Penang, Malaysia.’

Read here (Foreign Policy, May 1, 2020)

Resolve to Save Lives releases a colour-coded

‘Resolve to Save Lives released a color-coded COVID-19 alert system to signify the risk of transmission in communities and recommend appropriate levels of individual precautions. Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US CDC, likened this system to wildfire risk level signs on hiking trails or ocean hazard flags on beaches; it is up to individuals reading these signs to understand the risk level around them and act accordingly. This system includes four levels ranging from “new normal” to “high alert,” with corresponding measures that communities and individuals can take at each level to mitigate transmission risk.’

Download here (Resolve to Save Lives, May 2020)

Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis

‘What all three scenarios agree on is this: There is virtually no chance Covid-19 will end when the world bids good riddance to a calamitous 2020. The reason is the same as why the disease has taken such a toll its first time through: No one had immunity to the new coronavirus.

“This pandemic is not going to settle down until there is sufficient population immunity,” slightly above 50%, epidemiologist Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong told a New York Academy of Sciences briefing.

‘Since the world “is far from that level of immunity,” said Osterholm (he estimates that no more than 5% of the world population is immune to the new coronavirus as a result of surviving their infection), “this virus is going to keep finding people. It’s going to keep spreading through the population.” And that, he said, “means we’re in for a long haul”.’

Read here (STAT News, May 1, 2020)