Merck statement on ivermectin use during the Covid-19 pandemic

‘Merck, known as MSD outside the United States and Canada, today affirmed its position regarding use of ivermectin during the COVID-19 pandemic. Company scientists continue to carefully examine the findings of all available and emerging studies of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 for evidence of efficacy and safety. It is important to note that, to-date, our analysis has identified:

• No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies; 
• No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and; 
• A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.

We do not believe that the data available support the safety and efficacy of ivermectin beyond the doses and populations indicated in the regulatory agency-approved prescribing information.

Read here (Merck press statement, Feb 4, 2021)

The vaccine alternatives for people with compromised immune systems

‘While the exact number of the immunocompromised worldwide is unknown, estimates suggest that about 10 million live in the U.S. alone, or around 3 percent of the national population. The number encompasses a diverse range of vulnerabilities, including rare genetic immune deficiencies, chronic illnesses that impair the immune system such as rheumatoid arthritis, and cancer and organ-transplant patients who must take immune-suppressing medications.

‘For them, vaccines will not be effective, because they are incapable of making their own antibodies to neutralize the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Instead, pharmaceutical companies around the world are racing to develop alternative treatments that bypass the immune system altogether.

‘The most common option is called monoclonal antibody treatments. These artificially generated antibodies mimic the body’s natural immune response by binding to key sites on the virus’ spike protein, preventing it entering cells and reproducing. Companies including AstraZeneca, Regeneron, and Eli Lilly are currently testing whether monoclonal antibodies can protect immunocompromised people from SARS-CoV-2.’

Read here (National Geographic, Feb 4, 2021)

The ‘vaccine passport’: Answers to your questions

‘In the near future, travel may require digital documentation showing that passengers have been vaccinated or tested for the coronavirus. Answers to your questions:

• What is a vaccine pass or passport?
• Why would I need a vaccine pass or passport?
• Has this been done before?
• Do vaccine passports have to be digital?
• What are the objections to vaccine passports?
• What are the challenges to creating these digital passes?

Read here (New York Times, Feb 4, 2021)

The Covid-19 disinformation divide: Understanding vaccine attitudes

‘Scientists have developed COVID-19 vaccines so rapidly it has exacerbated existing mistrust proliferated by social media. New research by Edelman Data & Intelligence (DxI) aims to examine and understand the psychological motivations driving attitudes at both ends of the spectrum – from vaccine resistors to vaccine adopters. By understanding the concerns and sensitivities of each group, the scientific community can tailor messaging to improve vaccine uptake.’

Read here (World Economic Forum, Feb 4, 2021)

Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine

‘It is important to note that all the severe Covid-19 cases were in the placebo group, which suggests that mRNA-1273 is likely to have an effect on preventing severe illness, which is the major cause of health care utilization, complications, and death. The finding of fewer occurrences of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection after a single dose of mRNA-1273 is encouraging; however, the trial was not designed to evaluate the efficacy of a single dose, and additional evaluation is warranted.

‘Overall, the safety of the mRNA-1273 vaccine regimen and platform is reassuring; no unexpected patterns of concern were identified. The reactogenicity associated with immunization with mRNA-1273 in this trial is similar to that in the phase 1 data reported previously. Overall, the local reactions to vaccination were mild; however, moderate-to-severe systemic side effects, such as fatigue, myalgia, arthralgia, and headache, were noted in about 50% of participants in the mRNA-1273 group after the second dose. These side effects were transient, starting about 15 hours after vaccination and resolving in most participants by day 2, without sequelae.’

Read here (New England Journal of Medicine, Feb 4, 2020)

A new vaccine to battle Covid-19 -- NEJM editorial

‘That the mRNA-1273 Covid-19 and the BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccines protect with near-identical 94 to 95% vaccine efficacies — and that both vaccines were developed and tested in less than a year — are extraordinary scientific and medical triumphs. This happened because the scientific community was prepared from years of technology development for other vaccines, such as those against HIV, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and Zika, and because clinical trials consortia were established that rapidly carried out Covid-19 efficacy trials. If mRNA-LNP vaccines significantly contribute to control of the pandemic, mRNA technology has the potential to radically change vaccine design for future viral outbreaks.

‘Although the Covid-19 pandemic is currently raging, the prospects for control of this and future pandemics are bright. The recent FDA issuance of EUAs for these extraordinarily protective vaccines provide us with much-needed hope at a time when so many are suffering. The next challenge is to get these and the next Covid-19 vaccines to the people most at risk as quickly as possible.’

Read here (New England Journal of Medicine, Feb 4, 2020)

Sinovac applies for conditional approval of Covid-19 vaccine in China

‘China's medicine regulator is reviewing a second domestically developed COVID-19 vaccine for conditional approval. The CoronaVac inoculation, developed by Sinovac Biotech, has been given to tens of thousands of people in China under an emergency use program launched in July targeting specific groups with high infection risks. Regulators are also reviewing for approval a similar vaccine created by state-owned China National Pharmaceutical Group, known as Sinopharm...

‘China's COVID-19 vaccines have won approval in a dozen countries for emergency use, but the failure to publish detailed trial data could undermine public trust, a leading Chinese researcher said in a recent interview.

‘Ding Sheng, dean of Tsinghua University's School of Pharmaceutical Sciences and director of the Global Health Drug Discovery Institute (GHDDI), called for the original clinical trial data from Chinese experimental vaccines to be made public so that experts can better assess their efficacy and eliminate lingering safety concerns in China and abroad.’

Read here (Nikkei, Feb 4, 2021)

Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination?

‘In fact, most vaccines don't fully protect against infection, even if they can block symptoms from appearing. As a result, vaccinated people can unknowingly carry and spread pathogens. Occasionally, they can even start epidemics. 

"Effective" or "sterilising" immunity: There are two main types of immunity you can achieve with vaccines. One is so-called "effective" immunity, which can prevent a pathogen from causing serious disease, but can't stop it from entering the body or making more copies of itself. The other is "sterilising immunity", which can thwart infections entirely, and even prevent asymptomatic cases. The latter is the aspiration of all vaccine research, but surprisingly rarely achieved.

What type of immunity do the Covid-19 vaccines provide? "In a nutshell we don't know, because they’re too new," says Neal. So far, the available Covid-19 vaccines have not been judged primarily on their ability to prevent transmission – though this is now being evaluated as a secondary endpoint for many of them. Instead, their efficacy was assessed by whether they could prevent symptoms from developing. "This means that we set our targets kind of pragmatically," says Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.’

Read here (BBC, Feb 4, 2021)

Could mixing Covid vaccines boost immune response?

‘Vaccine developers often combine two vaccines to combat the same pathogen, and researchers are keen to deploy the strategy — known as a heterologous prime-boost — against the coronavirus. A heterologous prime-boost combination was approved last year by European regulators to protect against Ebola, and experimental HIV vaccines often rely on the strategy, says Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, Massachusetts. But it has yet to be tested for vaccines against COVID-19, which are typically given as a repeat injection of the same vaccine.

‘The ability to mix and match vaccines could make vaccination programmes more flexible: it would speed up the process and reduce the impact of any supply-chain disruptions. “It really makes the implementation much more simple,” said Mary Ramsay, head of immunization at Public Health England, at a press briefing on 3 February.’

Read here (Nature, Feb 4, 2021)

Covid has a dramatic impact on children

‘It was in December that Axel Gerschlauer noticed the crisis within the crisis. In the last three weeks before Christmas, the pediatrician found himself treating three minors who had slashed their lower arms. Three youths in three weeks — Gerschlauer says he usually sees this sort of thing about once every three to six months. "This kind of frequency,” he says, "brought the scale of the problem home to me."

‘And this at a time when Gerschlauer is not even getting to see all his regular patients. Some are avoiding his practice altogether for fear of infection. His phone, meanwhile, has hardly stopped ringing, as desperate parents seek his advice. "There has been a shift of emphasis towards psychological issues, ranging from anxieties to concentration disorders to sleep disorders. In recent months, mental health issues have increased massively."

Read here (DW, Feb 4, 2021)

Pregnant during pandemic: The bump that no one saw

‘Sometimes I’m grateful for the isolation. I got to endure nausea in private, be exhausted in private and work from my couch on the days when it felt too hard to stand. Luckily for me, I had a job that allowed me to work from home. Luckily for me, I had a job at all. And as others also reported in a 2020 survey of 70 pregnant women in Ireland, taking a break from life’s fast pace while I grew another life did, at times, bring me peace.

‘My challenge instead has been letting go of the picture I had in my head of what pregnancy was “supposed” to look like. Gone is the fantasy of the Good Samaritan on the crowded bus giving up his seat for me or of colleagues in the hall asking how I’m doing. Also gone are the strangers trying to touch my belly or giving me unsolicited advice. Sometimes, without that constant feedback, I forget I’m pregnant. At other times, the aches and pains I feel in isolation seem stronger than they would be if someone was around to provide distraction.’

Read here (Scientific American, Feb 4, 2021)

Political warfare, inequity, and insufficient data in coverage of the vaccine rollout

‘Ellen Ruppel Shell, a professor of science journalism at Boston University, told me yesterday that vaccine framing can be “schizophrenic—alarmism followed by sometimes misleading reassurance.” This is true, for example, of many stories warning about vaccines’ possible reduced efficacy against new variants of the virus, whose scary headlines often belie more nuanced expert assessments and key questions that have yet to be answered...

‘It’s hard to generalize, obviously, but it’s increasingly clear that much vaccine coverage is stuck in conventional journalistic rhythms that don’t serve the story well. Given that the pandemic is a “once-in-a-hundred-years event, it’s time for journalists to step back and think about what our priorities need to be,” Shell told me. “We don’t just take notes and put them out there. Almost every piece should have some analysis in it.” In the course of this reflection, we need to reckon, too, with the idea that vaccines may not be a magic bullet. Elena Conis, a science historian and journalism professor at Berkeley, told me yesterday that her biggest concern with vaccine framing is that “we have rushed to cover, talk, and think about vaccination all while failing to have much harder conversations about other things we can do to keep this epidemic in check.”

Read here (Columbia Journalism Review, Feb 3, 2021)

Domestic violence is a pandemic within the Covid-19 pandemic

‘Growing evidence shows the pandemic has made intimate partner violence more common—and often more severe. “COVID doesn’t make an abuser,” says Jacky Mulveen, project manager of Women’s Empowerment and Recovery Educators (WE:ARE), an advocacy and support group in Birmingham, England. “But COVID exacerbates it. It gives them more tools, more chances to control you. The abuser says, ‘You can’t go out; you’re not going anywhere,’ and the government also is saying, ‘You have to stay in.'”

‘Surveys around the world have shown domestic abuse spiking since January of 2020—jumping markedly year over year compared to the same period in 2019. According to the American Journal of Emergency Medicine and the United Nations group U.N. Women, when the pandemic began, incidents of domestic violence increased 300% in Hubei, China; 25% in Argentina, 30% in Cyprus, 33% in Singapore and 50% in Brazil.’ 

Read here (Time, Feb 3, 2021)

Caught in tangled web of vaccine nationalism -- Jomo Kwame Sundaram

‘As known COVID-19 infections exceed 100 million internationally, with more than two million lives lost, rich countries are now quarrelling publicly over access to limited vaccine supplies. With ‘vaccine nationalism’ widespread, multilateral arrangements have not been able to address current challenges well. 

‘Vaccine nationalism has meant that the rich and powerful come first, not only in societies, but also in the world, making a mockery of the ‘No one left behind’ slogan embraced by the international community.  Many developing countries and most of their people will have to wait for access to vaccines while the powerful and better off secure prior access regardless of need or urgency. Vaccine nationalism and the prospect of more profits by not scaling up output to induce scarcity may thus cause more losses of both lives and livelihoods, causing economies to slow further.’

Read here (ksjomo.org, Feb 2, 2021)

Why has Britain failed on Covid? | Richard Horton, editor, The Lancet

‘A year after the World Health Organisation declared Covid-19 a pandemic, with Britain enduring more than a 100,000 deaths since, a number of major questions remain unanswered. Why was the response of the UK among the worst in the world? How is it possible that the death toll of countries in Europe and North America is so much higher than poorer countries in Asia such as Thailand and Vietnam? And when will things go ‘back to normal’? Discussing that, and more, is Richard Horton – editor of the prestigious medical journal The Lancet and author of ‘The Covid-19 catastrophe, what’s gone wrong and how to stop it happening again’.

View here (Novara Media, Feb 2, 2021)

The second Covid-19 shot is a rude reawakening for immune cells

‘Side effects are just a sign that protection is kicking in as it should...

‘At about 2 a.m. on Thursday morning, I woke to find my husband shivering beside me. For hours, he had been tossing in bed, exhausted but unable to sleep, nursing chills, a fever, and an agonizingly sore left arm. His teeth chattered. His forehead was freckled with sweat. And as I lay next to him, cinching blanket after blanket around his arms, I felt an immense sense of relief. All this misery was a sign that the immune cells in his body had been riled up by the second shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, and were well on their way to guarding him from future disease.

‘Side effects are a natural part of the vaccination process, as my colleague Sarah Zhang has written. Not everyone will experience them. But the two COVID-19 vaccines cleared for emergency use in the United States, made by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, already have reputations for raising the hackles of the immune system: In both companies’ clinical trials, at least a third of the volunteers ended up with symptoms such as headaches and fatigue; fevers like my husband’s were less common.

‘Dose No. 2 is more likely to pack a punch—in large part because the effects of the second shot build iteratively on the first. My husband, who’s a neurologist at Yale New Haven Hospital, is one of many who had a worse experience with his second shot than his first.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Feb 2, 2021)

Viral loads, including in asymptomatic cases, a key factor in transmission

‘The scientific community is still uncovering the full picture of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. A study published in The Lancet: Infectious Diseases analyzed SARS-CoV-2 transmission among clusters in Catalonia, Spain, to understand the relationship between viral load and transmission risk. The researchers utilized participant data from a previous clinical trial, and they identified 314 COVID-19 patients that met their inclusion criteria. Among those patients, 282 had at least 1 contact (753 total contacts). The index patients infected 125 secondary cases, corresponding to a secondary attack rate of 17%. 

‘The researchers identified a statistically significant association between viral load in the index patients and the subsequent secondary attack rate. Among index patients with the lowest viral load, index patients exhibited a secondary attack rate of 12%, compared to 24% among the highest group. The researchers estimate that the odds of secondary transmission increase 30% for every log(10) increase in viral load. Additionally, the study found increased likelihood that secondary cases would develop COVID-19 symptoms associated with increased viral load in the index patients (aHR of 1.12 per log(10) increase in viral load). While further research is needed to more fully characterize the factors associated with transmission, this study provides evidence that the index patient’s viral load could be a major driver of secondary transmission risk and potentially disease severity in secondary cases.’ (Source: Updates on the COVID-19 pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.)

Transmission of COVID-19 in 282 clusters in Catalonia, Spain: a cohort study

Read original here (The Lancet, Feb 2, 2021)

Covid-19 infection rates fall as millions are vaccinated in Britain

‘Infection rates in the over-80s have fallen by 36 per cent this month. Other age groups have seen similar falls. The biggest drop was recorded in people in their 20s. Rates in that age group have halved. Prof Harnden said: “The data we have is still is very early because it only reflects approximately three or four weeks of the program and it’s mainly based on the Pfizer vaccine.”

Read here (News.com, Feb 1, 2021)

Sputnik V ‘91·6% efficacious, well tolerated’: Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia

‘Our interim results of the phase 3 Gam-COVID-Vac trial show that the vaccine is 91·6% (95% CI 85·6–95·2) efficacious against COVID-19 (from day 21 after first dose, the day of receiving second dose). Our results also showed that the vaccine was 100% (95% CI 94·4–100) efficacious against severe COVID-19, although this was a secondary outcome so the results are preliminary. The vaccine was well tolerated, with 45 (0·3%) of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group reporting serious adverse events, all of which were considered not related to the vaccine... 

‘The vaccine induced robust humoral (n=342) and cellular (n=44) immune responses in all age strata. Notably, there were a few non-responders in the vaccine group (six of 342), possibly due to immunosenescence in older people, individual characteristics of the formation of an immune response, or concomitant immunological disorders.’

Read here (The Lancet, Feb 2, 2021) 

Pregnant women get conflicting advice on Covid-19 vaccines

‘Pregnant women looking for guidance on Covid-19 vaccines are facing the kind of confusion that has dogged the pandemic from the start: The world’s leading public health organizations — the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization — are offering contradictory advice. Neither organization explicitly forbids or encourages immunizing pregnant women. But weighing the same limited studies, they provide different recommendations.’

Read here (New York Times, Feb 2, 2021)

Ivermectin may not be the ‘silver bullet’ antiviral against Covid-19 (link to original Medrxiv report included)

‘A team of researchers based in Peru and the US recently examined the role of the anti-parasitic drug ivermectin in treating COVID-19. The team has released their findings on the medRxiv preprint server... (link below).

Study details

‘The researchers included 12 qualitative and five quantitative studies, mostly preprints. These studies originated from all over the world, two being from the U.S., two from Spain, two from South America, one each from Iraq and Iran, and four from Bangladesh.

‘Altogether, there were around 7,400 participants, with a mean age of 47.5 years. About 60% were male. The treatment protocols for all included studies comprised ivermectin either alone or in combination with another anti-inflammatory, antibiotic or blood-thinning drug like azithromycin, hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone, enoxaparin, aspirin or dicloxacillin...

‘Ivermectin was not significantly associated with a lower mortality or higher recovery of patients in this meta-analysis. However, the majority of studies were preprints, allowing for later changes in the data on which these conclusions are based.’

Read here (Medical News, Feb 1, 2021)

• Outcomes of Ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Read original study here (Medrxiv, Jan 27, 2021) 

CommuniVax: A coalition to strengthen the community’s involvement in an equitable vaccination rollout

‘CommuniVax is a national alliance of social scientists, public health experts, and community advocates who seek lasting solutions to a serious problem: in the United States, historically underserved Black, Indigenous, and Latino populations have endured negative health and economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic at tragic and disproportionate rates. While these communities could benefit greatly from safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, longstanding biases and barriers hinder their access to and acceptance of vaccination.

‘The coalition is strengthening national and local COVID-19 vaccination efforts in the United States by putting communities of color at the center of those endeavors. The coalition is listening to Black, Indigenous, and Latino/Latinx individuals on how best to promote awareness of, access to, and acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines in their respective communities; and developing longstanding, local governance systems that enable underserved groups to exercise collective agency over their own health and wellness, during this pandemic and going forward. Funding for CommuniVax is provided by the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative.

‘CommuniVax relies on efforts from 3 groups: local teams, a central working group, and national stakeholders.

• Local Teams are composed of resident researchers, grassroots leaders, and public health implementers. They will engage local communities of color to identify improvements needed to vaccine delivery and communication strategies in their communities.
• The Central Working Group includes experts in public health, public policy, medical science, anthropology, and public involvement. With input from diverse stakeholders, the working group will coordinate the local research processes and ensure the implementation of findings nationwide
• National Stakeholders represent groups with political, technical, cultural, and social justice perspectives on vaccine delivery and uptake. These associations will amplify information generated from local teams within their networks and provide feedback to the central working group.

Read here (John Hopkins Center for Health Security, Feb 2021)

A doctor's fight for survival in ICU

‘On Dec 27, 2020, after 23 days in the hospital, I was finally allowed to return home. I was told that my blood parameters and X-ray would only return to normal after many months. All this would not have been possible if not for the prayers and love of my wife, family, friends and God. I was grateful for a strong social support group...

‘It's been a month since I was discharged from the hospital, but my joints still hurt, I suffer from fatigue and shortness of breath when walking far or fast. There is also social stigma as many people won't come near me because I'm a former Covid-19 patient. A friend even declined my small change claiming that the virus would be on it.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, Feb 1, 2021)

Efficacy of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine: A preprint for The Lancet

‘A study (preprint for The Lancet) of data from the Phase 3 clinical trials of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine evaluated vaccine efficacy after a single dose and for alternate timing for the booster dose. Notably, the UK adapted the timing for the booster dose from 4 weeks after the first dose—which is how the vaccine was designed to be administered and the timing used for clinical trials—to 12 weeks in an effort to provide the first dose to as many people as possible. This study assessed the vaccine’s efficacy in participants who received the 2 doses between 4 and 12 weeks apart.

‘The researchers found that the efficacy after the first dose did not wane in the first 12 weeks. A single dose of the vaccine was 76% efficacious in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 disease in the first 90 days after vaccination, although it was associated with a substantial decrease in efficacy with respect to preventing asymptomatic infection. Notably, however, the additional asymptomatic infections could potentially be among participants who would have otherwise developed COVID-19 symptoms. Additionally, the efficacy in preventing symptomatic disease was higher in participants who received the booster dose later than in those who received it earlier. Vaccine efficacy was 82.4% among participants who received their booster dose 12 weeks or longer after the first dose, compared to 54.9% in those who received their 2 doses less than 6 weeks apart. These results provide support for vaccination plans that delay the booster dose beyond the intended 4 weeks, considering that the immunity conferred after the first dose appears to be relatively stable over the first several months and the overall protection appears to increase with an increased time between the prime and booster doses.

‘The researchers also found that vaccination was associated with an overall reduced risk of infection—54.9% efficacy for 2 doses and 67% efficacy for 1 dose—which provides evidence that the vaccine could also provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The role of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in mitigating transmission risk remains uncertain, but these findings provide a promising indication that vaccination could reduce community spread of the virus, which would be a major tool to bring the pandemic under control.’

**The above summary was contained in an update of Feb 5, 2021, on the COVID-19 pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security 

• Single dose administration, and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine

Read here (The Lancet, Feb 1, 2021)

Coronavirus: After Wuhan, it’s time for global response reset, says Covid-19 probe chief

‘Covid-19 has exposed global deficiencies in the response to dangerous infectious diseases and the international system will need to be strengthened to raise alerts and deal with future outbreaks, according to Helen Clark, co-head of an international panel investigating the pandemic.

‘Despite the novel coronavirus emerging in a world with rapid communication services, it was notable how slow the global response to the outbreak was after it was first detected in China, said Clark, a former prime minister of New Zealand and one-time head of the United Nations Development Programme.

“Every day counts if you are trying to stop an infectious disease of unknown origin,” she said in an interview with the South China Morning Post. “There just doesn’t seem to be enough happening quickly enough, from the time of first awareness of the cluster onwards, and here we are.

“The WHO didn’t have all the information it needed, and – let’s be fair here, we are still discovering things about Covid-19 every day, we are on a very steep learning curve – but all the more reason, I would think, for applying a precautionary principle. If it smells bad, it may well be bad,” she said, referring to the early days of the pandemic.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Feb 1, 2021)

How Singapore picked its Covid-19 vaccines

‘Last June, Singapore sealed its first deal to buy Covid-19 vaccines - before any of the more than 200 vaccine candidates had even started their phase three clinical trials. It decided not to wait for the trials, and even paid a premium on the price, in order to secure some early stock of vaccines for people here at high risk, such as healthcare workers and the elderly. That was for the Moderna mRNA vaccine, which has yet to be approved for use here.

‘Singapore signed two more purchase agreements in August - with Sinovac which produces a traditional vaccine, and Pfizer-BioNTech which also uses mRNA. These purchases should provide sufficient vaccines for the entire adult population. But Singapore is buying more. Dr Benjamin Seet, who chaired the panel that picked the vaccines for Singapore, said several late-stage discussions are still ongoing with a handful of other companies - as part of a contingency plan should there be disruptions in the supply of purchased vaccines, delays in the delivery, or even the need for further booster shots.’

Read here (Straits Times, Feb 1, 2021) 

The mystery of India's plummeting Covid-19 cases

‘Last September, India was confirming nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day. It was on track to overtake the United States to become the country with the highest reported COVID-19 caseload in the world. Hospitals were full. The Indian economy nosedived into an unprecedented recession.

‘But four months later, India's coronavirus numbers have plummeted. Late last month, on Jan. 26, the country's Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases — in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. It was India's lowest daily tally in eight months. On Monday, India confirmed about 11,000 cases.

"It's not that India is testing less or things are going underreported," says Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University. "It's been rising, rising — and now suddenly, it's vanished! I mean, hospital ICU utilization has gone down. Every indicator says the numbers are down." Scientists say it's a mystery. They're probing why India's coronavirus numbers have declined so dramatically — and so suddenly, in September and October, months before any vaccinations began.

‘They're trying to figure out what Indians may be doing right and how to mimic that in other countries that are still suffering.’

Read here (NPR, Feb 1, 2021)

Is Noor Hisham a bystander in the Covid-19 crisis? Frankie de Cruz

‘Some claim the director-general of health, who wasn’t fazed by whatever was thrown at him in the early days of the crisis, is in a political straitjacket. Could it be that his views have narrowed the political and economic choices of those in power to relatively tight parameters?

‘If that is true, it needs fixing. In the meantime, the people expect professionalism and strong leadership at a time when Covid-19 infections and deaths are rising. That means Noor Hisham has to be firm and shoot straight to give Malaysians the confidence that the war is being fought with confidence.’

Read here (Free Malaysia Today, Jan 31, 2021)

Private practitioners welcome govt roping in GPs to monitor Covid-19, call for guidance

‘The Federation of Private Medical Practitioners’ Association (FPMPAM) has welcomed the government’s upcoming move to task private general practitioners (GPs) with monitoring some Covid-19 patients. However, it called for more guidance for the GPs. 

‘Health Minister Dr Adham Baba said yesterday that the cabinet had agreed to amend the Emergency (Essential Powers) Ordinance 2021 to empower private GPs to issue home quarantine orders.

‘The Malay Mail quoted him as saying such orders can be issued without the need of a positive test result if a patient displays Covid-19 symptoms or is suspected to have the virus. GPs will also be equipped with an unspecified device that can help identify Covid-19 patients, he added.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, Jan 31, 2021)

Vaccine wars: The global battle for a precious resource

‘Armed guards are patrolling the perimeter fence of a sleek factory. Software experts are fending off hackers. Border officials are checking trucks and ferries, not for weapons or illegal immigrants, but for a mysterious biochemical soup, while spies and spin doctors are feeding social media with scare stories flaming one national champion or another. Welcome to the first great geopolitical battle of the 21st century. It may sound like something ripped from the pages of a dystopian sci-fi novel, but in truth we’re seeing the opening salvos in the vaccine wars.

‘Rather than co-operating with one another to roll out a global vaccination campaign to rid the world of Covid-19, the major powers of the world are instead descending into a fierce, increasingly nationalistic competition. The EU is threatening to hold back supplies from Britain, the Americans are scooping up supplies wherever they can, and the Russians and the Chinese are engaged in a form of ‘vial diplomacy’ reminiscent of the Cold War. It is all starting to turn very, very nasty. We are seeing how quickly our globalised world collapses when push comes to shove. The effect of all this on national security, on industrial policy and on the movement of people around the world will be felt for many years to come.’

Read here (The Spectator, Jan 30, 2021)

The vaccine, migrant workers and herd immunity -- Jeyakumar Devaraj

‘Let us look at the numbers - our population is 31 million. We have six million migrant workers and another 200,000 refugees. So altogether there are 37.2 million people residing in Malaysia. 

‘The government has said that children and pregnant women will not be given the Covid vaccine - that is about six million children 12 years and below and 0.5 million pregnant women. 6.5 million is 17.5 percent of 37.2 million.

‘In other words, we could achieve our 80 percent immunisation rate if all migrant workers also took the vaccine. But if all of them didn’t, then we would have 12.7 million not vaccinated - children, pregnant mums, migrant workers and refugees - and 12.7 million is 34 percent of 37.2 million. We only achieve a vaccination rate of 63 percent - far short of the 80 percent we need to get herd immunity!’

Read here (Malaysiakini, Jan 30, 2021)

Malaysia in Covid-19 crisis? — Musa Mohd Nordin

‘We are plagued with the Double Whammy. MCO + EO. A poorly managed Pandemic in bed with a poorly managed Politics. Pandemic + Politics. It cannot get any more worse! Yesterday Malaysia was in panic mode! Triggered by the humongous Covid-19 numbers Chill out Malaysia! It is NOT REAL TIME case numbers. These are just BACKLOG cases only just being reported

‘Contact Tracing is virtually at a STANDSTILL. An officer at a PKD had 600 contacts to trace and yesterday was slapped with another 700 to trace These are all the manifestations of a failure of the system. There is a breakdown in the FTTIS work flow! How much longer can we tolerate these failings and lackluster performance?

‘It has been SYSTEMS GO in Selangor over and above the efforts of JKNS. They are our buddies in Selangor to rid Covid-19. Please share this widely with your friends in Selangor.

‘STFO is the Operations arm of STFC [Selangor Task Force on Covid-19] led by Public Health Physician, Prof Farhan [Asst Prof Dr Mohammad Farhan bin Rusli (Consultant Public Health Physician, International Islamic Universiti Malaysia)] to bust Covid-19. It aims TO FLATTEN THE CURVE IN THE COMMUNITY WITHIN 4 WEEKS. The MCO + EO has interrupted STFO operations. With JKNS they are resuming with vigor with the blessings of the State Government.

STFO Blueprint of Action

1. ALL +ve or household that is +ve to register under SELangkah (so that state govt can provide home kits
2. ALL high risk and household with HIGH risk persons, to pre register SELangkah: (a) for B40, we provide voucher (FREE testing) to go to nearest Selcare clinic panel (static) or mass screening (mobile); (b) for non-B40, encourage them to do testing (we provide list of participating Selcare panel clinic)
3. Community mass screening (mobile) to HIGH RISK RANK areas (from ACURA) to HIGH RISK individuals OR HOUSEHOLDS with HIGH RISK individuals (from pre-register SELangkah) e.g. (a) Old folks home (b) Hemodialysis centers (c) Nursing homes for the elderly 
4. Mass screening (mobile) to HIGH RISK super spreaders e.g. (a) communities living in crowded spaces (b) families in PPR flats (c) migrants (d) refugees. Data obtained from community leaders, refugee/migrant centric NGOs, UNHCR.
5. State / Selgate to buy RTK-Ag in bulk. To provide at minimal cost to Selcare Clinic panel. Participating Selcare Clinic panel to provide at standard low cost price. At least 2 participating Selcare panel per district.
6. To encourage ADUN to subsidise the cost and liase with respective participating Selcare clinic panels
7. To increase  Health Education Advocacy to do testing and isolate: (a) SYMPTOMATIC individuals with +ve close contacts must ASAP do testing & treatment (if needed) at nearest KKM's facility. Call 999 if severe symptoms (b) ASYMPTOMATIC individuals with +ve close contacts, encourage to do testing at nearest participating Selcare Clinic panel (c) SYMPTOMATIC inviduals with NO +ve close contacts, must do testing at nearest KKM's facility (or participating Selcare clinic - if KKM reject testing)
8. Activate GEOFENCING via SELangkah AND communicate SELamat warning system
9. Home Kits provided by STFO: Face Masks, Hand sanitiser, Information pamphlet,  Foodpack / vouchers -- for B40, unemployed, does day jobs,  SpO2 monitors include training and monitoring (for high risk patients only)

Read here (Malay Mail, Jan 31, 2021)

Covid-19: It’s all doom and gloom unless… — Dr Musa Mohd Nordin

‘There is much misunderstanding about the Covid-19 situation in the country. In particular, the high rates in the Klang Valley and the role of the only state task force, the Selangor Task Force on Covid-19 (STFC)...

‘In many ways, if the STFC had not stepped in, did mass testing, rolled out POIS (Prevention of Outbreaks at Ignition Sites), allocated Z millions for FTTIS (find, test, trace, isolate, and support), the situation in Selangor would be far worse, critical even...

‘And other states, industries, agencies, etc, are buying in STFC’s POIS programme and implementing it. This tripartite initiative between government-industry-NGOs pivots on three preventative strategies namely, enhanced public health measures, early detection testing regime and health education. So STFC doesn’t just talk but rolls out programmes, mass testing, POIS, procuring vaccines, etc, to end the pandemic...

‘At the end of the day, we are in it together. If we refuse to learn from each other and operationalise the best public health practices, we are in for a rough ride.

‘I hope the national task force, as petitioned by the 46 top physicians, is rapidly recognised, accepted, and formalised to empower it to immediately re-strategise and transform the mindset, and policy at the top end of the Health Ministry, so that the operations at ground zero will be a truly rapid-response FTTIS which has zero-tolerance for cases, clusters or outbreaks.

‘MCOs are the blunt tools of those who have failed to operationalise the back-to-basics of pandemic management and in my opinion, they should either seek a second opinion from the task force and/or gracefully exit to minimise further harm to the nation and allow the task force to steer the nation out of this Covid-19 conundrum and to protect the lives and livelihood of its rakyat.’

Read here (Malaysiakini, Jan 30, 2021) 

Bill Gates, Big Pharma and entrenching the vaccine apartheid

‘It appears that South Africa and India were right. Under the current rules, the vaccine cannot be made quickly or cheaply enough to meet global demand, which vaccines are only going to those countries that can afford it. This is a “catastrophic moral failure”, said the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Some activists have described the situation as a “vaccine apartheid”...

‘Nonetheless, the proposal for a patent waiver has been repeatedly rejected at the WTO by wealthier countries including the European Union, the United Kingdom, US and Switzerland; countries which, as Reuters wryly noted, are “all home to major pharmaceutical companies”. They also all enjoy early access to the vaccine.

‘Nor has South Africa and India’s proposal received support from the most influential non-state actor in global public health: Bill Gates...

‘But despite Gates’ stated commitment to an equitable distribution of the Covid vaccine, he is refusing to back South Africa and India’s calls for a waiver on patents... 

‘This should not come as a surprise: the Gates Foundation has historically been opposed to efforts to reform intellectual property protections for pharmaceutical companies — putting it at odds with other public health NGOs such as Doctors Without Borders (MSF) — and has in fact lobbied for developing countries to impose even stronger protections for drug companies’ patents. This is perhaps because Gates’ own fortune is built on intellectual property, specifically the copy­rights and patents associated with Windows and Microsoft.’

Read here (Mail&Guardian of South Africa, Jan 30, 2021)

How influencers, celebrities, and FOMO [fear of missing out] can win over vaccine skeptics

‘Drawing from product innovation theory, Rohit Deshpandé and colleagues offer three recommendations to speed adoption of COVID-19 vaccines...

‘Governments are prioritizing certain groups to receive the vaccine, with medical professionals and certain government personnel at the top, followed by first responders and vulnerable populations, and then the general population. The diffusion of innovations model indicates that each of these groups will have five customer segments based on their willingness to get vaccinated earlier or later. For example, some medical professionals will be eager to get vaccinated early (the innovators, early adopters, and majority) while others will wait (the late majority and laggards).

‘So, how do we maximize the number of individuals in any prioritized group who are willing, if not eager, to get vaccinated as soon as possible?

‘The answer requires keen understanding of each segment, for example, of both the seniors in the early majority and the seniors that are laggards less keen on taking the vaccine. The diffusion of innovations research indicates that a combination of personal and societal factors influence the rate of adoption within and between segments factors, with the ultimate driver being word of mouth.

‘For the COVID-19 vaccine, the personal factors include people’s perceived efficacy and need for the vaccine, past immunization experiences, and opinions about vaccines more generally, along with those of their families.

‘Societal drivers include the advice of experts, media, and other influencers within their demographic, socioeconomic, and innovation adoption segment. Influencers will need to mitigate concerns about the “newness” of the vaccine, such as the probability of side effects and solutions when they occur. They will also need to reinforce the positive consequences of taking the vaccine, such as the ability to visit family, go to work, and have more entertainment options.’

Read here (Harvard Business School, Jan 29, 2021)

Covid-19: Novavax vaccine shows 89% efficacy in UK trials

‘A new coronavirus vaccine has been shown to be 89.3% effective in large-scale UK trials. The Novavax jab is the first to show in trials that it is effective against the new virus variant found in the UK, the BBC's medical editor Fergus Walsh said. The PM welcomed the "good news" and said the UK's medicines regulator would now assess the vaccine.’

Read here (BBC, Jan 29, 2021) 

Coronavirus antibody therapies explained

How do bamlanivimab and REGN-CoV-2 work?: ‘Both antibody treatments are designed to block the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and thus prevent the virus from attaching to and entering human cells. These identical so-called monoclonal antibodies are lab-engineered and designed to attack one specific virus in one distinct way.

‘Bamlanivimab contains one monoclonal antibody. REGN-CoV-2, in contrast, consists of two monoclonal antibodies. US pharma company Regeneron says its antibody cocktail lowers the viral load, which helps symptoms dissipate more quickly.

‘The advantage of Regeneron's drug cocktail is that by containing two antibodies, it increases the chance that at least one of them will prove effective during treatment, virologist Sandra Ciesek told German public broadcaster NDR.’

Read here (DW, Jan 29, 2021)

Covid-19 rarely spreads through surfaces. So why are we still deep cleaning?

‘Armed with a year’s worth of data about coronavirus cases, researchers say one fact is clear. It’s people, not surfaces, that should be the main cause for concern. Evidence from superspreading events, where numerous people are infected at once, usually in a crowded indoor space, clearly point to airborne transmission, says Marr. “You have to make up some really convoluted scenarios in order to explain superspreading events with contaminated surfaces,” she says.

‘Hand washing is crucial, says Marr, because surface transmission can’t be ruled out. But it’s more important to improve ventilation systems or to install air purifiers than to sterilize surfaces, she says. “If we’ve already paid attention to the air and we have some extra time and resources, then yes, wiping down those high-touch surfaces could be helpful,” she says.

‘Households can also ease up, says Pickering. Quarantining groceries or disinfecting every surface is going too far. “That’s a lot of work and it also is probably not reducing your exposure that much,” she says. Instead, reasonable hand hygiene, as well as wearing a mask and social distancing to reduce exposure from close contacts is a better place to focus efforts.’

Read here (Nature, Jan 29, 2021)

How to redesign Covid vaccines so they protect against variants

‘Some aspiring vaccine makers have had their eye on the threat that escape variants might pose from the start. A team at Gritstone Oncology decided to focus on this potential problem by designing a vaccine that targets multiple sites on several viral proteins, in contrast to first-generation shots that target only the spike protein, says Andrew Allen, president of the company in Emeryville, California. The hope is that the vaccine, which should soon start clinical trials, will make it difficult for the virus to evade immunity because many genetic changes would be necessary for it to do so. “You can either play whack-a-mole and chase the variants, or you can try to get ahead of them,” Allen says.

‘Because updating the construction of existing vaccines is relatively simple, a new RNA vaccine could be designed and manufactured for clinical testing within six weeks, Weissman estimates. But that is only the beginning. “Mass-producing a vaccine is hard. To start all over again will be hard,” says Offit. Some researchers are expecting periodic updates to coronavirus vaccines, as with flu, to become a way of life. “This is not unusual,” says Stanley Plotkin, a consultant who advises companies on vaccines. But it could mean that worries over supply chains and logistics will continue for some time.’

Read here (Nature, Jan 29, 2021)

Why it takes 2 shots to make mRNA vaccines do their antibody-creating best – and what the data shows on delaying the booster dose

‘With current vaccine shortages, and problems with setting up the infrastructure to vaccinate millions of people, many physicians are concerned that the second dose of vaccine won’t be delivered in the prescribed three-to-four-week window.

‘That booster shot is necessary for the T-cells to stimulate the memory B-cells to produce massive quantities of antibodies. If the booster isn’t given within the appropriate window, lower quantities of antibodies will be produced that may not provide as powerful protection from the virus.’

Read here (The Conversation, Jan 29, 2021)

What about the Chinese Covid-19 vaccines? — Dr Musa Mohd Nordin

‘The Chinese vaccines are rapidly making inroads into the Malaysian vaccine market place. After the 39 per cent Pfizer-BioNTech, 10 per cent AstraZeneca-Oxford and 10 per cent COVAX vaccine advance bookings, there is now reported, a 22 per cent booking of the Sinovac vaccine. 

‘China’s Sinovac Lifesciences Co Ltd, manufactures the inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac which is administered intramuscularly, two doses, two weeks apart. And can be stored in a standard refrigerator at 2-8 degree Celsius, unlike the arctic temperatures required for the mRNA vaccines...’

Read here (Malay Mail, Jan 29, 2021) 

Pregnant women can pass antibodies to their foetus: Some implications for vaccinations

‘A study published in JAMA: Pediatrics provides evidence that pregnant women may be able to pass IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 to their fetus. The study involved 1,417 women who recently gave birth. Among 83 mothers with detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 72 (86.7%) transferred IgG antibodies to their fetus—as detected in the newborns’ cord blood. IgM antibodies were not detected in any cord blood specimens, and antibodies were not detected in any infants born to mothers without detectable antibodies. The concentration of antibodies in the cord blood was significantly correlated with the concentration in the mother, but the antibodies were successfully transferred by mothers who exhibited symptomatic disease and asymptomatic infection. The study did not explicitly evaluate the ability to transfer antibodies developed as a result of vaccination; however, the researchers indicate that the results align with similar studies on transplacental transfer of vaccine-conferred antibodies for other diseases. Further research is necessary to determine the recommended timing for vaccination of pregnant women in order to achieve sufficient transplacental transfer of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to the fetus.’ [John Hopkins Newsletter]

Assessment of maternal and neonatal cord blood SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and placental transfer ratios

‘Our findings demonstrate the potential for maternally derived antibodies to provide neonatal protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection and will help inform both neonatal management guidance and design of vaccine trials during pregnancy. Further studies are needed to determine if SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are protective against newborn infection; if so, at what concentration; and whether the transplacental kinetics of vaccine-elicited antibodies are similar to naturally acquired antibodies.’

Read here (Jama Pediatrics, Jan 29, 2021)

Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) infection: A prospective study in UK Biobank

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have related vitamin D supplementation to a lower risk of acute respiratory tract infection. Emerging evidence suggests that vitamin D insufficiency is related to a higher risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.

Objectives: We aimed to investigate the prospective association between habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of COVID-19 infection, and assess whether such an association differed according to the different levels of circulating and genetically predicted vitamin D.

Methods: This study included 8297 adults who have records of COVID-19 test results from UK Biobank (from 16 March 2020 to 29 June 2020). The use of vitamin D supplements, circulating vitamin D levels, and main covariates were measured at baseline (2006-2010). Genetically predicted vitamin D levels were evaluated by genetic risk score.

Results: After adjustment for covariates, the habitual use of vitamin D supplements was significantly associated with a 34% lower risk of COVID-19 infection (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.97; P = 0.034). Circulating vitamin D levels at baseline or genetically predicted vitamin D levels were not associated with the risk of COVID-19 infection. The association between the use of vitamin D supplements and the risk of COVID-19 infection did not vary according to the different levels of circulating or genetically predicted vitamin D (P-interactions = 0.75 and 0.74, respectively).

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that habitual use of vitamin D supplements is related to a lower risk of COVID-19 infection, although we cannot rule out the possibility that the inverse association is due to residual confounding or selection bias. Further clinical trials are needed to verify these results.

Read here (American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Jan 29, 2021)

Just like Pfizer, China says vaccines can beat new strains

‘Virologists and vaccine specialists with China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Wednesday they had a detailed plan to upgrade homegrown vaccines against Covid-19 to “version 2.0” within two months to stop the spread of new mutant strains found across the United Kingdom and South Africa.

‘The claim coincided with Pfizer’s announcement on Wednesday that its Covid-19 vaccine works against mutated variants found in the UK and South Africa, according to a lab study. China’s claim comes as local firms SinoPharm and Sinovac crank out their Covid-19 shots for mass inoculations.’

Read here (Asia Times, Jan 28, 2021)

All countries should pursue a Covid-19 elimination strategy: Here are 16 reasons why

‘As governments draw up their battle plans for year two, we might expect them to base their strategies on the wealth of data about what works best. And the evidence to date suggests that countries pursuing elimination of Covid-19 are performing much better than those trying to suppress the virus. Aiming for zero-Covid is producing more positive results than trying to “live with the virus”.

‘Here are 16 reasons why we think all countries should at least consider an elimination approach:

1. It saves lives.
2. The elimination of community transmission also spares populations from “long-Covid”.
3. Elimination is pro-equity.
4. Countries that have eliminated Covid-19 are experiencing less economic contraction.
5. Elimination is achievable and works in a variety of settings.
6. The virus can be eliminated even after intense local transmission has occurred.
7. It’s easier if more countries adopt this approach.
8. The rollout of effective vaccines will make Covid-19 elimination easier to achieve.
9. Having an explicit “zero-Covid” goal provides a strong motivating and coordinating focus.
10. It is sustainable.
11. If the virus mutates, elimination still works.
12. It also still works if vaccines provide only limited long-term protection.
13. It may reduce emergence of more dangerous virus variants.
14. The use of lockdowns should be less necessary.
15. Vigorous control of Covid-19 infection has substantial co-benefits.
16. It provides a good interim strategy while we identify an optimal long-term approach, which is currently uncertain.  

Read here (The Guardian, Jan 28, 2021)

German officials say AstraZeneca vaccine shouldn't be given to over-65s, citing lack of data

‘Germany's vaccine commission said the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine should not be given to people older than 65 years, amid a bitter dispute between the European Union and the drugmaker over delayed supplies.

‘The Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) at Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the country's main public health authority, found there is insufficient data on the effectiveness of the vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, for this age group, according to a statement from the interior ministry on Thursday. "Due to the small number of study participants in the age group ≥65 years, no conclusion can be made regarding efficacy and safety in the elderly. This vaccine is therefore currently recommended by STIKO only for persons aged 18-64 years," the panel said in its recommendation.’

Read here (CNN, Jan 28, 2021) 

The pandemic has erased entire categories of friendship

‘Close relationships were long thought to be the essential component of humans’ social well-being, but Granovetter’s research led him to a conclusion that was at the time groundbreaking and is still, to many people, counterintuitive: Casual friends and acquaintances can be as important to well-being as family, romantic partners, and your closest friends...[this is the group of friends the pandemic has erased].

[At this point]...there’s cause for optimism. As more Americans are vaccinated in the coming months, more people will be able to return confidently to more types of interactions. If the best historical analogue for the coronavirus outbreak is the 1918 flu pandemic, the Roaring ’20s suggest we’ll indulge in some wild parties. In any case, Rawlins doubts that many of the moderate and weak ties people lost touch with in the past year will be hurt that they didn’t get many check-in texts. Mostly, he predicts, people will just be so happy to see one another again.

‘All of the researchers I spoke with were hopeful that this extended pause would give people a deeper understanding of just how vital friendships of all types are to our well-being, and how all the people around us contribute to our lives—even if they occupy positions that the country’s culture doesn’t respect very much, such as service workers or store clerks. “My hope is that people will realize that there’s more people in their social networks that matter and provide some kind of value than just those few people that you spend time with, and have probably managed to keep up with during the break,” Sandstrom said. America, even before the pandemic, was a lonely country. It doesn’t have to be. The end of our isolation could be the beginning of some beautiful friendships.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Jan 28, 2021)

Stories from a past pandemic: Readers write in about their ancestors’ experiences during the 1918 flu

‘A recent Scientific American feature explores how the catastrophic 1918 influenza pandemic seemed to quickly slip from public discourse. The event killed more than 50 million people worldwide, yet it takes up comparatively little space in society’s “collective memory.” The article considers, by analogy, how the current COVID-19 pandemic might be remembered by future generations. Scientific American accompanied the feature with a call for letters telling the stories of families affected by the 1918 crisis. Below are some examples of what we received.’

Read here (Scientific American, Jan 28, 2021)

Double masking for Covid-19 protection: A trend with a purpose

‘Layering your face is in -- but not as a fashion statement. It may just save a life. Public health officials are suggesting double masking as a way to increase the level of protection from the coronavirus and its multiple, more contagious variants. "If you have a physical covering with one layer, you put another layer on, it just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective, and that's the reason why you see people either double masking or doing a version of an N95," Dr. Anthony Fauci, now chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, told NBC's Savannah Guthrie.

‘Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been doubling up for weeks -- in fact Biden was often seen with a surgical mask under his go-to black fabric covering before being sworn into office.’

Read here (CNN, Jan 28, 2021)

Pharmaniaga, Duopharma to supply 18.4m doses of vaccines

‘Malaysia has secured deals to acquire 18.4 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines through Pharmaniaga Bhd and Duopharma Biotech Bhd. In separate announcements, Pharmaniaga said it would be supplying 12 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines developed by China’s Sinovac Life Sciences Co Ltd, while Duopharma said it would supply 6.4 million doses of Sputnik V developed by Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute to the government.

‘Both companies yesterday said they had entered into a term sheet agreements to supply the Covid-19 vaccines to the Health Ministry. Pharmaniaga said it would begin manufacturing Sinovac Covid-19 vaccines in February and will deliver the bottled vaccines to identified hospitals and other healthcare facilities nationwide by April 2021.

Read here (The Star, Jan 27, 2021) 

More than 50 long-term effects of Covid-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

‘COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, can involve sequelae and other medical complications that last weeks to months after initial recovery, which has come to be called Long-COVID or COVID long-haulers. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify studies assessing long-term effects of COVID-19 and estimates the prevalence of each symptom, sign, or laboratory parameter of patients at a post-COVID-19 stage. LitCOVID (PubMed and Medline) and Embase were searched by two independent researchers. All articles with original data for detecting long-term COVID-19 published before 1st of January 2021 and with a minimum of 100 patients were included. 

‘For effects reported in two or more studies, meta-analyses using a random-effects model were performed using the MetaXL software to estimate the pooled prevalence with 95% CI. Heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviewers and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. A total of 18,251 publications were identified, of which 15 met the inclusion criteria. 

‘The prevalence of 55 long-term effects was estimated, 21 meta-analyses were performed, and 47,910 patients were included. The follow-up time ranged from 15 to 110 days post-viral infection. The age of the study participants ranged between 17 and 87 years. It was estimated that 80% (95% CI 65-92) of the patients that were infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed one or more long-term symptoms. The five most common symptoms were fatigue (58%), headache (44%), attention disorder (27%), hair loss (25%), and dyspnea (24%). All meta-analyses showed medium (n=2) to high heterogeneity (n=13). In order to have a better understanding, future studies need to stratify by sex, age, previous comorbidities, severity of COVID-19 (ranging from asymptomatic to severe), and duration of each symptom. From the clinical perspective, multi-disciplinary teams are crucial to developing preventive measures, rehabilitation techniques, and clinical management strategies with whole-patient perspectives designed to address long COVID-19 care.’

Read/download PDF here (Medxiv, Jan 27, 2021)

The year global health went local: Bill & Melinda Gates

‘As hard as it is to imagine right now while so many people are still suffering from COVID-19, this pandemic will come to an end someday. When that moment comes, it will be a testament to the remarkable leaders who have emerged over the last year to steer us through this crisis.

‘When we say “leaders,” we don’t just mean the policymakers and elected officials who are in charge of the official government response. We’re also talking about the healthcare workers who are enduring unimaginable trauma on the frontlines. The teachers, parents, and caregivers who are going above and beyond to make sure kids don’t fall behind in school. The scientists and researchers who are working around the clock to stop this virus. Even the neighbors who are cooking extra meals to make sure no one in their community goes hungry.

‘Their leadership will get us through this pandemic, and we owe it to them to recover in a way that leaves us stronger and more prepared for the next challenge. Over the last year, a global threat touched nearly every person on the planet. By next year, we hope an equitable, effective COVID-19 response will have reached the whole world, too.’

Read here  (GatesNotes, Jan 27, 2021)

More than 85 poor countries will not have widespread access to coronavirus vaccines before 2023

• The rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus (Covid-19) has started in developed countries, but mass immunisation will take time. 
• Production represents the main hurdle, as many developed countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need. 
• The costs associated with mass immunisation programmes will be significant, especially for less-developed countries that have limited fiscal resources. 
• Vaccine diplomacy will play a role in determining which countries get access to a vaccine in the coming months. 
• Russia and China will use the rollout of their own coronavirus shots to advance their interests. 
• With priority groups vaccinated in rich economies by end-March, The EIU expects global economic prospects to brighten from mid-2021. 
• For most middle-income countries, including China and India, the vaccination timeline will stretch to late 2022. 
• In poorer economies, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved before 2023, if at all.

Read here (The Economist, Jan 27, 2021)

Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

‘A study published in The Lancet analyzed the increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Manaus, Brazil, a region that had previously shown high levels of seroprevalence among its community members. A study conducted in October 2020 detected SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in samples from 76% of blood donors, which suggested that the region may have reached the threshold to provide some level of community immunity (ie, herd immunity). Despite the high seroprevalence, Manaus exhibited a large surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in January 2021.

‘The researchers present 4 possible explanations for the surprising surge in cases. First, the previous study could have overestimated the seroprevalence, which could have put the community below the herd immunity threshold. Second, immunity to SARS-CoV-2 conferred by earlier infection could have waned, resulting in re-infections. Third, the new infectious could be a result of emerging variants, including the P.1 variant first reported in the area, that are less susceptible to antibodies from prior infections. And finally, new SARS-CoV-2 lineages could simply be exhibiting much higher transmissibility, which could allow widespread community transmission even in areas with high existing seroprevalence. The researchers note that these theories are not mutually exclusive, and further study is needed to better characterize the factors driving the current resurgence. In particular, it is critical to investigate the potential that emerging variants could evade antibodies developed from infection with other strains, which could inform response activities in communities around the world.’ 

Read here (The Lancet, Jan 27, 2021)

Covid-19: Five days that shaped the outbreak

‘A year ago, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan. For weeks beforehand officials had maintained that the outbreak was under control - just a few dozen cases linked to a live animal market. But in fact the virus had been spreading throughout the city and around China. This is the story of five critical days early in the outbreak.’

Read here (BBC, Jan 26, 2021)

Wealth increase of 10 men during pandemic could buy vaccines for all: Oxfam

‘The combined wealth of the world's 10 richest men rose by $540bn (£400bn) during the pandemic, according to Oxfam. The charity claims this amount would be enough to prevent the world from falling into poverty because of the virus, and pay for vaccines for all. The organisation is urging governments to consider taxes on the super-rich. Oxfam's report comes as global leaders gather virtually for the World Economic Forum's "Davos Dialogue" meeting.’

Read here (BBC, Jan 26, 2021)

Is govt doing enough about Covid-19? – P Gunasegaram

‘The warning to manufacturers by the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) reported over the weekend raises very serious questions on the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to reports, Miti is involved in 99 of the more than 300 Covid-19 clusters in the country. This makes the manufacturing sector the main source of Covid-19 infections. Also, Miti indicated that there would be a shutdown/strict lockdown if Covid-19 numbers did not improve...

‘First, if indeed manufacturing is the main source of infections – it is no secret that cramped living quarters are the main source of Covid-19 – why is there no public information on this? Why is the matter only between manufacturers and the government?...

‘There are other questions, too. With the rising cases and contact tracing, it should have been obvious that the hospital system would reach full capacity and be strained. Why was there not enough serious effort put in to ease the strain on hospitals? When did we know that hospitals were going to be strained? Why wait so long before we announce it and formulate measures to take care of that? Why did contact tracing break down? What do we do now? What is the alternative?...

‘And then, there is the matter of the vaccine. Why was Khairy Jamaluddin, minister of science, technology and innovation, appointed to lead our search and procurement of suitable vaccines? It should have been led by health authorities. Let’s get this right, because the success of Covid-19 containment finally depends on it. Why the seeming delay in getting our vaccine rolled out? Why is our vaccine not yet ready? Singapore has got theirs, even Ecuador and Indonesia have theirs.

‘But where is ours? Why is it later than others? Are we prepared to roll out the vaccines in time, or will it take till next year, when enough of us are inoculated? And, have all the concerns about vaccination been sufficiently addressed?’

Read here (The Vibes, Jan 26, 2021)

Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy

‘Covid will be around for a long time — virus suppression is the right policy...

‘If regions with raging transmission do act as breeding grounds for resistant variants, then failing to control spread will prolong the pandemic. Prof de Oliveira stresses that Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand, which have chased elimination, are the role models to follow. “This should be a wake-up call for all of us to control transmission, not just in our own regions but globally. This virus will keep outsmarting us if we don’t take it very seriously,” he says.

‘That means not just vaccinating but fast testing, accurate and quick contact tracing, quarantine and isolation. In short, vaccination must go hand-in-hand with virus suppression, not become a substitute for it. A successful vaccine rollout will count for little if the country then becomes a crucible for resistant variants.’

Read here (Financial Times, Jan 26, 2021)

Efficacy of colchicine in non-hospitalized patients with Covid-19 (pre-print)

Background Evidence suggests the role of an inflammatory storm in COVID-19 complications. Colchicine is an orally administered, anti-inflammatory medication beneficial in gout, pericarditis and coronary disease.

Methods We performed a randomized, double-blind trial involving non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing or clinical criteria. The patients were randomly assigned to receive colchicine (0.5 mg twice daily for 3 days and once daily thereafter) or placebo for 30 days. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of death or hospitalization for COVID-19.

Results A total of 4488 patients were enrolled. The primary endpoint occurred in 4.7% of the patients in the colchicine group and 5.8% of those in the placebo group (odds ratio, 0.79; 95.1% confidence interval (CI), 0.61 to 1.03; P=0.08). Among the 4159 patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19, the primary endpoint occurred in 4.6% and 6.0% of patients in the colchicine and placebo groups, respectively (odds ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.99; P=0.04). In these patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19, the odds ratios were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57 to 0.99) for hospitalization due to COVID-19, 0.50 (95% CI, 0.23 to 1.07) for mechanical ventilation, and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.19 to 1.66) for death. Serious adverse events were reported in 4.9% and 6.3% in the colchicine and placebo groups (P=0.05); pneumonia occurred in 2.9% and 4.1% of patients (P=0.02). Diarrhea was reported in 13.7% and 7.3% in the colchicine and placebo groups (P<0.0001).

Conclusion Among non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19, colchicine reduces the composite rate of death or hospitalization. (COLCORONA ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04322682)

Read here (Medrxiv, Jan 26, 2021)

Regeneron says monoclonal antibodies prevent Covid-19 in study

‘Regeneron said Tuesday that its monoclonal antibody cocktail prevented Covid-19 in a clinical trial. The news, issued via a press release, mirrored similar news from Eli Lilly last week that its monoclonal antibody prevented symptomatic Covid-19 infections in nursing homes.

‘The results represent the first 400 volunteers from the study, which is being run by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is continuing to enroll patients. The volunteers were at high risk of infection because they lived in the same household as a Covid-19 patient. Half the patients received a placebo, and the other half received 1.2 grams of casirivimab and imdevimab, Regeneron’s antibodies.’

Read here (Stat News, Jan 26, 2021)

FLCCC Alliance issues open letter to UK researchers planning a new trial to test ivermectin for use in Covid-19

‘The Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) has issued an open letter to researchers  in England at the University of Oxford who are planning to conduct a double-blind, Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) of ivermectin for use in COVID-19.  The letter states, “Our manuscript, which reviewed both epidemiologic data and the existing clinical trials evidence base, concluded that ivermectin should be the standard of care in COVID-19.”

• ‘A meta-analysis of existing data of ivermectin as a therapeutic finds large, statistically significant reductions in time to clinical recovery, length of hospitalization, and death.
• ‘The Declaration of Helsinki – Ethical Principles for Medical Research involving Human Subjects” states that “when combining medical research with medical care, patients can only be studied...if the physician has good reason to believe that participation in the research study will not adversely affect the health of the patients who serve as research subjects.”

Read here (Newswire, Jan 25, 2021)

Download FLCCC Aliiance PDF here

Global life insurers impose restrictions, worried about long-term pandemic risks

‘Global life insurers are taking steps to curb payouts stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, including long-term health consequences that are not fully understood, industry sources told Reuters. Life insurers, including Prudential Financial Inc, and Aviva PLC, are now imposing waiting periods before COVID-19 patients, including those who have recovered, can apply for coverage, executives and spokespeople said. Some are also limiting coverage for certain age groups.

‘These changes come as some reinsurers demand new safeguards from life insurers they backstop, and as the industry struggles to ascertain the extent of problems caused by the novel coronavirus.’

Read here (Reuters,  Jan 25, 2021)

Politics, race, and religion: Pandemic misinformation courses through the Southeast Asian internet

‘From tales of allegedly dwindling food stockpiles in Singapore to Indonesian land supposedly being traded to China for precious supplies of vaccine, false narratives about COVID-19 have swirled around the Southeast Asian internet for months.

‘Disinformation in the region is not a new phenomenon. During  the 2014 Indonesian election, Islamist groups targeted current President Joko Widodo and falsely claimed he was a non-Muslim of Chinese lineage. Online troll armies notoriously helped propel Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to victory in his 2016 campaign. Concerns about misinformation have led governments to implement highly controversial legislation in Thailand and Malaysia.

‘Now, the misinformation ecosystem in Southeast Asia continues to thrive in the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.’

Read here (Defend Democracy, Jan 25, 2021)

The worst of Malaysia's Covid-19 measures is yet to come: Sin Chew Daily columnist (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

‘According to the government, this is to prevent a full-fledged impact the lockdown will have on the country's economy. Finance minister Tengku Zafrul has said the first MCO imposed nationwide last year cost the country RM2.4 billion (S$787 million) a day, but only RM600 million a day this time. While allowing key economic sectors to operate as usual could help arrest the daily economic loss, there is nevertheless a hefty public health price to pay...

‘To break the infection chain, we cannot afford to take things for granted. If the government eventually decides to extend the current MCO, it must tighten the SOPs, even to the extent of locking down all economic activities, or we will stand to lose even more if MCO is extended over and again. The situation now is indeed alarming.

‘From infection clusters mostly linked to migrant workers, factories, shopping malls, prisons and detention centres, we now have new clusters emerging in workplaces and even medical centres. All this highlights the fact that the virus has not only penetrated our communities but is fast expanding its reach, and may soon come to you or your family members, colleagues and friends.’

Read here (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

Malaysia's worsening Covid-19 situation exposes serious economic, political fault lines

‘The darkening economic clouds for Malaysia will also have serious implications for the country's already troubled politics. Opposition politicians are keen to point out that Malaysians are starting to focus on the government's failures in dealing with the pandemic amid questions about Mr Muhyiddin's move to seek a declaration of a state of emergency.

"People and businesses need… a blanket moratorium on loans and perhaps a targeted movement control order. Certainly not the emergency," said Mr Ronnie Liu Tian Khiew, a senior politician from the opposition Democratic Action Party and elected assemblyman to the Selangor state government.

Read here (Straits Times, Jan 25, 2021)

Covid-19 pandemic could last 4 to 5 years: Lawrence Wong

‘It may take four to five years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends and the world can look to a "post-COVID normal", said Education Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (Jan 25). "At some point in time the pandemic will pass, but it may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal. What will this new post-COVID world look like? No one can tell," he said. Mr Wong, who co-chairs the COVID-19 multi-ministry taskforce, was speaking at the Singapore Perspectives 2021 conference hosted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Jan 25, 2021)

The inequality virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

‘The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade.

‘The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.’ 

Download PDF here (Oxfam, Jan 25, 2021)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it — Musa Mohd Nordin

‘The data shows that the MOH is doing relatively well. The risk of a Covid-19 death per population n Malaysia is 1 per 50,000. This compares favorably against the Global average of 1 per 3,676.b It is worse in the UK and US, 1 per 700 and 781 respectively...

‘Despite the surging numbers of Covid-19 cases, the MOH infrastructure and services are holding up well and delivering good outcomes when compared to the US, UK and our southern neighbours. Therefore, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It is in this context that the following suggestions are made:

1. The MOH should continue to operate with the 52 dedicated Covid Hospitals.
2. If these are inadequate to meet the current surge in Covid-19 cases, select private and government facilities can be transformed into dedicated Covid Hopsitals.
3. The concept and operations of Hybrid Hospitals should be avoided as much as possible. It compromises the Quality of Care, especially among the Category 4-5 patients, and the Safety of patients, HCW, other hospital staff and visitors, due to the real risk of nosocomial infection from this most transmissible coronaviruses.
4. The lay public is fast becoming very fearful of Covid and Hybrid hospitals and this has led to them shunning away from hospitals despite their need for regular hospital visits and review.
5. If they delay or miss their appointments, the management of Non-Covid illness eg NCD, Cancers, Immunization uptake, will be compromised.
6. The MOH has begun to decongest and create more empty General and ICU beds in Covid Hospitals by discharging Category 1&2 patients to Home Isolation with clear instructions on the use of Health Assessment Tools.’

Read here (Malay Mail, Jan 24, 2021) 

Oxford’s PRINCIPLE trial: Bringing ivermectin directly into the developed world in the battle against Covid-19

‘The University of Oxford soon kicks “the PRINCIPLE Trial” into a higher gear now, in what they consider a pathbreaking “high-quality trial” of Ivermectin, a generic drug already evidencing significant efficacy in over two dozen clinical trials around the world, according to some researchers. The UK government also backs this pivotal study via the Department of Health and Social Care. 

‘Searching for early-onset, home-based ambulatory treatments for COVID-19, the PRINCIPLE Trial seeks to meet a gap in research in the world’s richest nations to date. Nearly all of the taxpayer-financed research-based expenditures of governments in the US, UK and Europe, for example, have gone into vaccines, novel monoclonal antibodies, and novel therapeutics, with an emphasis on treating severely ill patients. 

‘Ivermectin, hailed as the “wonder drug” or “the People’s medicine” for COVID-19, gains growing attention worldwide made more widely available, frankly, partly due to TrialSite’s consistent chronicling of these trials around the world since the original University of Monash breakthrough.’

Read here (TrialSite News, Jan 23, 2021)

Key measures to reduce the Covid-19 raging fire ― Amar-Singh HSS

‘Many individuals and groups have voiced suggestions to manage our raging Covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia. However few appear to have been considered. Allow me to summarise five key measures we critically need to take to help put out the Covid-19 raging fire in our nation:

• Test extensively
• Restore contact tracing
• Support MoH staff
• Improve home quarantine
• Widen pick-up services

Read here (The Malay Mail, Jan 23, 2021)

‘Major breakthrough’ | Large study shows effectiveness of colchicine to treat Covid-19

‘A large study launched last March by the Montreal Heart Institute allows a “major breakthrough” in the treatment of COVID-19. Its results show that the anti-inflammatory drug colchicine is effective in treating the disease and preventing its complications. It is the first oral medicine proven to be effective in treating patients before they are admitted to hospital. “We have just provided the planet with hope, exclaims the D.r Jean-Claude Tardif, principal investigator of the COLCORONA study and director of the research center of the Montreal Heart Institute (ICM). We finally have a first treatment that can help patients with COVID before their hospitalization to prevent hospitalizations, prevent intubations and prevent death. ”

‘In 4,159 patients proven to be diagnosed with COVID-19 using a PCR test, colchicine resulted in a 25% decrease in hospitalizations, a 50% decrease in the use of ventilation and a decrease in deaths by 44%. “It’s a major breakthrough,” says Dr Tradif. Colchicine works to prevent the “major inflammatory storm” that affects the lungs and can send patients to hospital.’

Read here (The Canadian, Jan 23, 2021)

MCO 2.0 wipes off 90% of retail business volume

‘Malaysia’s second round of the Movement Control Order (MCO) has dimmed any hope of recovery for the local retail scene. Bumiputera Retailers Organisation president Datuk Wira Ameer Ali Mydin said retail businesses have dropped about 90% during the first week of MCO 2.0 compared to before it came into force on Jan 13.

“Although shopping complexes are allowed to open, the retail sector is taking a drastic hit. People are not coming out to shop despite strict standard operating procedures (SOPs) in place. Also, the number of Covid-19 cases which has been increasing tremendously day by day has affected consumers’ confidence,” he told The Malaysian Reserve (TMR).’

Read here (Malaysian Reserve, Jan 22, 2021)

Indonesia's Covid vaccination campaign prioritises workers

‘Indonesia has decided to prioritise vaccination for people aged 18-59, arguing the workforce needs to be protected first to boost the economy... The first two phases of Indonesia's vaccination campaign started on January 13 and are expected to run concurrently until April, according to the Health Ministry. The first shots will go to health workers and support staff. This will be followed by members of the public workforce, including public servants at ports and stations, electric companies, banks, water companies and any officials providing community services.’

Read here (DW, Jan 22, 2021)

Emerging coronavirus variants may pose challenges to vaccines

‘The mRNA technology on which the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines rely can be altered in a matter of weeks, and far more easily than the process used to produce flu vaccines. But it would be wise to prepare for this eventuality [a time when the current slew of vaccines become less effective] now and think through not just the technical aspects of updating the vaccines, but the testing, approval and rollout of those vaccines, experts said.

‘Still, the best path forward is to prevent the emergence of new mutations and variants altogether, they said. "Imagine having to do catch-up like this all the time - it's not something desirable," Dr Iwasaki said. "If we can just stop the spread as soon as possible, while the vaccine is very effective, that's the best way."

Read here (New York Times/Straits Times, Jan 22, 2021)

The prevalence of long Covid symptoms and Covid-19 complications (plus updated estimates)

‘The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) published data regarding the prevalence of symptoms associated with “long COVID” in patients who recovered from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. The data indicate that approximately 20% of infected individuals exhibit symptoms for 5 weeks or longer, and 10% report symptoms for 12 weeks or longer. This corresponds to an estimated 186,000 individuals in England with symptoms lasting between 5 and 12 weeks. The findings are based on responses to the UK’s COVID-19 Infection Survey, which utilizes a nationally representative sample from across the UK, and efforts are ongoing to gather additional data, including on symptoms that persist longer than 12 weeks. A more detailed look at the available data shows that prevalence of long COVID symptoms* tends to increase with age, peaking in the 35-49 years (26.8%) and 50-69 years (26.1%) age groups, compared to the 2-11 years (12.9%) and 12-16 years (14.5%) age groups. Additionally, there appears to be a statistically significant increase in prevalence among women (23.6%) compared to men (20.7%).’

Read here (Office for NationaL Statistics, UK, Dec 16, 2020)

Read here for update (Office for NationaL Statistics, UK, Jan 21, 2021)

Eli Lilly says its monoclonal antibody, bamlanivimab, prevented Covid-19 infections in clinical trial

‘Eli Lilly said Thursday that its monoclonal antibody prevented Covid-19 infections in nursing home residents and staff in a clinical trial, the first time such a treatment has been shown to prevent infection. Lilly released the results in a press release, although it said that it would publish the data in a research paper as quickly as possible.

‘In November, the antibody, bamlanivimab, was authorized for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration in treating patients with Covid who are at risk of more severe disease. An antibody cocktail made by the biotechnology firm Regeneron has also been authorized... But Lilly believes its antibody could be an option not just to treat Covid-19 but to help prevent it in limited circumstances.’

Read here (STAT News, Jan 21, 2021)

Thailand: AstraZeneca vaccine approved, 50,000 doses due in February

‘The [Thai] Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the emergency use of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine and 50,000 doses of it will arrive in Thailand in February. FDA secretary-general Paisarn Dunkum said on Thursday that the FDA approved the registration of the vaccine, produced in Italy by AstraZeneca Co, on Wednesday after the firm had submitted nearly 10,000 pages of its documents for vaccine registration for emergency use on Dec 22 last year...

‘A total of 50,000 doses of the vaccine will arrive in Thailand in February. The import licence and vaccine registration will be valid for one year. A Reuters source said the approval applied only to doses manufactured overseas.’

Read here (Bangkok Post, Jan 21, 2021)

We're about to see a wave of long Covid. When will ministers take it seriously?

‘Long Covid is shorthand for a range of conditions. Some scientists divide them into three broad categories, others into four. Of these, one seems to ring a bell. It’s a cluster of symptoms that bear a strong similarity to myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). This is a devastating condition that affects roughly a quarter of a million people in the UK, and is often caused, like long Covid, by viral infection...

‘The NHS is now setting up specialist clinics to treat long Covid. But already, apparent mistakes are being made. Without the necessary caveats, the NHS recommends steadily increasing levels of exercise for people suffering from post-Covid fatigue. But as ME/CFS patients with post-exertional malaise know, this prescription, though it sounds intuitive, could be highly damaging.

‘We need massive research programmes into both long Covid and ME/CFS, coupled with better information for doctors. But above all, we need something that currently seems a long way off. A government that gives a damn.’

Read here (The Guardian, Jan 21, 2021)

Why kids might be key to reaching herd immunity

‘Vaccinating kids, however, is often not just about the direct and immediate benefits to them. It’s also meant to protect children against diseases that would otherwise become more dangerous for them as adults—measles, mumps, and chicken pox are three common examples—and dampen the overall spread of these diseases. In the short term, the primary reason to vaccinate children against COVID-19 may be that the U.S. will have a hard time reaching herd immunity otherwise.‘

Read here (The Atlantic, Jan 21, 2021)