‘Delta is a deadly variant. It spreads like wildfire and kills efficiently. We need to be careful.
If you’re an individual
‘If you’re vaccinated, you’re mostly safe, especially with mRNA vaccines. Keep your guard up for now, avoid events that might become super-spreaders, but you don’t need to worry much more than that. If you’re not vaccinated though, this is a much more dangerous time than March 2020. The transmission rate is higher than it used to be, and if you catch Delta, you’re much more likely to die—or get Long COVID. You should be extra careful, only hang out with other vaccinated people, and avoid dangerous events.’
If you’re a community leader
‘If you’re in charge of a community, you have two goals:
- ‘Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate. The lives of your community depend on it. Any vaccine that works is better than none. If people are opting out, try to lure them in. Most are not anti-vaxxers, but rather they’re on the fence, or simply don’t see the benefit worth the cost. So change their calculation. Create lotteries. The Ohio one, among the first, probably didn’t work, but the cost is paltry compared to the cost of deaths and closing the economy this Fall.
- ‘Keep Delta at bay as much as you can while vaccinations proceed. An elimination strategy will be best. Good border fences and test-trace-isolate programs are your best tools. Super-spreader events should still be avoided. Masks indoors and in crowds should be mandatory. Great ventilation is a must.
‘However, if you have vaccinated everybody that wants to be vaccinated, and the rest simply doesn’t want to get vaccinated, then the calculation changes drastically. If your location values the freedom of its people to make the wrong decisions (as long as they don’t impact others), then you might consider opening up the economy. Delta will tear through those unvaccinated, but that’s their prerogative. Maybe the reality will hit better then.
‘But it really depends on each society. Opening up without full vaccination would infect some of those vaccinated, about 10% of them would get long COVID7, and about 0.3% of them would die8.
‘So here each society needs to decide. Say 40% don’t want to vaccinate. Is the freedom of 40% to not vaccinate worth the deaths and Long COVID of those vaccinated? Otherwise, are you willing to force people to vaccinate? Are you going to keep the country closed until there’s a booster vaccine? Will you be able to get your fences and test-trace-isolate programs to work?’
If you’re in charge of vaccine policy
‘An R0 of 8 is bad news for herd immunity. It puts its threshold at ~90% of people protected, which is impossible to reach if vaccines are only 65% protective of infection. Booster shots are necessary. Let’s accelerate their testing, approval, release, and deployment.
‘Also, support vaccine mix-and-match. In most countries, today, if you need a boost you are forced to take the same vaccine. But mixing types likely protects you better and is as safe as using the same type.’
If you’re in a developing country
‘We don’t pay enough attention to developing countries. Most of the science and media focuses where the money is, in developed economies. But Delta is very hard in developing countries, especially in dense urban areas where the poor are forced to work but live in close quarters with many others. India, Argentina, Tunisia, South Africa, and Indonesia are very sad examples of this.
‘Unfortunately, there’s not many special tricks that poor countries can pull. They tend to have a younger population, which helps. The one thing they have going on for them is that they tend to be warmer and more humid, which helps against COVID. Also, thanks to a warmer weather, they can have more events outdoors. This is the one thing they can leverage: have as many of your gatherings outside, while you do everything you can to vaccinate your population, and delay as much as you can the arrival of Delta with strong fences.
‘Let’s hope vaccine production keeps growing and people the world over can get vaccinated before the fall.’
Read here (Uncharted Waters, Aug 11, 2021)
