Bill Gates: The pandemic has erased years of progress

‘The US had a lot of assets going into this. We weren’t ground zero, so the US had more time to get ready. The US has more PCR [polymerase chain reaction] machines than all other countries per capita. We are very blessed with an expensive medical infrastructure. And we have groups like the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and BARDA [the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority]. So the US had done more to get ready than other countries had in advance...

‘Certainly humility is called for because the damage—whether it’s economic, educational, mental health—is so large. Other than a world war, this is the worst thing that’s happened in over a century. And so we should all say, “Wow, we didn’t understand about masks; we didn’t understand about asymptomatics.” Even the medical profession. We haven’t taken understanding these different respiratory diseases quite as seriously as we should. So everyone has lessons here.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Sept 21, 2020)

How people coped in lockdown: Jules Evans

‘What conclusions can we draw from this? Here are some personal suggestions and reflections:

1. Difficult times bring out the best (and sometimes the worst) in people. As Stoic philosopher Epictetus said: ‘Difficulties reveal people’s characters’. Most of us are finding the pandemic incredibly hard, we’re tired, anxious and sometimes feel defeated. But there’s cause for hope too — the emergency is bringing out the best in people, and helping us rediscover what really matters.
2. Doctors and health authorities should be careful not to pathologize the normal and appropriate suffering people feel in hard times, or to immediately prescribe pills for emotional suffering. Anti-depressants can be helpful in the short-term, but they also have side effects and can lead to long-term dependency. Declaring a mental health ‘epidemic’ and saying mental health services are the only solution can create bottlenecks for services that either don’t exist or have long waiting lists.
3. Instead, as well as supporting mental health services, we should also emphasize people’s strengths, assets and natural coping skills, including community approaches like getting to know your neighbours or joining local mutual aid groups. This empowers people rather than making them feel weaker and more dependent on medical experts.
4. For two decades, as part of the ‘politics of well-being’, policy makers have tried to improve people’s happiness in schools, companies and society. There is some evidence this is counter-productive, especially in difficult times. It can make people ashamed of feeling anxiety, anger or grief, even if these emotions are appropriate. Instead of focusing narrowly on happiness, we can help people develop psychological flexibility, and discover what gives them a sense of meaning and purpose, especially in adversity. This could make people more resilient and less prone to ‘the happiness trap’ (ie avoiding activities that make them feel anxious in the short-term).
5. Mental health and flourishing involve all aspects of society, from the economy to the arts to travel and green spaces. Building a flourishing organisation or society means taking a joined-up approach. That joined-up approach needs to come from the top — from the head of state, or the CEO of an organisation, or the head of a school or university.
6. An example of that joined-up approach to flourishing is social prescribing — perhaps 25% of people who go to see their GP (local doctor) don’t have anything physically wrong with them. Instead, they’re mainly suffering from loneliness and disconnection. Under a new NHS programme, the GP can refer them to a ‘link worker’, who then connects them to local community groups (sports, arts, faith and philosophy, and so on). Rather than asking ‘what’s wrong with you’ they can ask ‘what matters to you? What do you value?’
7. The challenge is that we are discovering the importance of these community approaches to flourishing just as the pandemic destroys community infrastructure — shutting down theatres, churches, youth groups, sports facilities and pubs. Yes, online courses have boomed, but we can’t go entirely digital, nor should governments only support big national arts projects. We all need to support local organisations that foster well-being, especially local companies.
8. In an age of emergency, you are only as strong as your community. The fantasy of the invulnerable Stoic individual is just that - a fantasy. We need each other, now more than ever, so the best thing you can do to support your long-term mental health is to invest in your community and in community relationships.

Read here (Jules Evans, Philosophy for Life, Sept 18, 2020)

How people coped in lockdown

‘The first wave of COVID caused huge suffering, and has led to warnings of an ‘epidemic’ or ‘tsunami’ of mental health problems. But there is another, more hopeful story to tell, about how people coped and even thrived during the adversity of 2020. It’s important to remember this as we head into the winter and a likely second wave.

‘The Collective Psychology Project has been researching how people coped, for a report for the Wellcome Trust called Collective Resilience. We were interested in how people discovered the ‘active ingredients’ of mental health, not just through therapy and pills, but also through self-care and mutual aid activities — from poetry to philosophy, from baking to cycling, from online learning to joining a neighbourhood support group.

‘What we discovered tallied with a lot of evidence, such as from the What Works Centre for Well-Being, about how people cope and flourish through non-medical activities like exercise, gardening, the arts, faith, philosophy & spirituality.’

Read here (Medium, Sept 18, 2020) 

For Covid-19, as with everything else, Americans on the right and left live in different universes when it comes to trusting the media

‘More in Common — a group that tries to “counter polarization” and “build bridges across dividing lines” — has a new report out this morning called “The New Normal,” which looks at “the impacts of COVID-19 on trust, social cohesion, democracy and expectations for an uncertain future.” It looks at seven countries (U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands) and is based on surveys of about 14,000 people.’

This story focuses on ‘how people in [the] seven countries view the motives of the news media in covering the pandemic. Only in the United States is that a profoundly partisan question.’

Read here (Nieman Lab, Sept 17, 2020)

The Covid silver linings playbook

• The first is that we are living through one of the most exciting and promising periods of medical invention and innovation in history. 
• Second, deeper cross-border private-sector collaboration, often outside the purview of governments, is fueling this process of scientific leapfrogging.
• Third, the economic disruptions resulting from the pandemic have fueled multiple private-sector efforts to collect and analyze a broader range of high-frequency data in domains extending far beyond medicine. 
• Fourth, the COVID-19 shock has raised our collective awareness and sensitivity to low-probability, high-impact “tail risks.”
• Fifth silver lining... The pandemic has led country after country to run a series of “natural experiments,” which have shed light on a host of issues that go well beyond health and economics.
• Finally, the crisis has required many companies to hold candid conversations about work-life balance, and to devise innovative solutions to accommodate employees’ needs.

Read here (Project Syndicate, Sept 15, 2020) 

Facts v feelings: How to stop our emotions misleading us -- Tim Harford

‘The pandemic has shown how a lack of solid statistics can be dangerous. But even with the firmest of evidence, we often end up ignoring the facts we don’t like...’ This is also shown in evidence from two other areas: (1) Coffee and breast cysts and (2) Climate change. They should inform our reaction to Covid-19 and other matters...

‘When it comes to interpreting the world around us, we need to realise that our feelings can trump our expertise. This explains why we buy things we don’t need, fall for the wrong kind of romantic partner, or vote for politicians who betray our trust. In particular, it explains why we so often buy into statistical claims that even a moment’s thought would tell us cannot be true. Sometimes, we want to be fooled. Psychologist Ziva Kunda found this effect in the lab, when she showed experimental subjects an article laying out the evidence that coffee or other sources of caffeine could increase the risk to women of developing breast cysts. Most people found the article pretty convincing. Women who drank a lot of coffee did not...

‘Scientific evidence is scientific evidence. Our beliefs around climate change shouldn’t skew left and right. But they do. This gap became wider the more education people had. Among those with no college education, 45% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans worried “a great deal” about climate change. Yet among those with a college education, the figures were 50% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans. A similar pattern holds if you measure scientific literacy: more scientifically literate Republicans and Democrats are further apart than those who know very little about science.’

Read here (The Guardian, Sept 10, 2020)

America is trapped in a pandemic spiral

‘The country is now trapped in an intuition nightmare: Like the spiraling ants [army ants that sometimes walked in circles until they died of hunger and dehydration because they followed pheromone trails of others], Americans are walled in by their own unhelpful instincts, which lead them round and round in self-destructive circles. “The grand challenge now is, how can we adjust our thinking to match the problem before us?” says Lori Peek, a sociologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder who studies disasters. Here, then, are nine errors of intuition that still hamstring the U.S. pandemic response, and a glimpse at the future if they continue unchecked. The time to break free is now. Our pandemic summer is nearly over. Now come fall, the season of preparation, and winter, the season of survival.’

The nine errors:

1. A serial monogamy of solutions
2. False dichotomies
3. The comfort of theatricality
4. Personal blame over systemic fixes
5. The normality trap
6. Magical thinking
7. The complacency of inexperience
8. A reactive rut
9. The habituation of horror

On point 9: ‘The US might stop treating the pandemic as the emergency that it is. Daily tragedy might become ambient noise. The desire for normality might render the unthinkable normal. Like poverty and racism, school shootings and police brutality, mass incarceration and sexual harassment, widespread extinctions and changing climate, COVID-19 might become yet another unacceptable thing that America comes to accept.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Sept 9, 2020)

Everything you need to know about the coronavirus: A very informative summary as at September 2020

‘As we head into fall, questions loom large about everything from reopening schools to the start of flu season. We’ve put together a guide to everything you need to know about this pandemic—be it how to keep your children entertained or how this outbreak is affecting the economy. We’ll be updating it regularly to help you keep track of all aspects of this rapidly evolving situation.’

Read here (Wired, Sept 4, 2020)

How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty

‘Political pressure has been mounting for scientists to deliver an economy-saving result, and reports of corner-cutting emerge daily... Nor is it just politicians who are in a hurry. On 2 August, Steven Salzberg, a computational biologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, suggested in Forbes magazine that a promising vaccine be rolled out to a wider pool of volunteers before clinical trials had been completed, triggering an outcry (and some sympathy) that prompted him to recant the next day. Meanwhile, a research group with links to Harvard University continues to defend its publication in July of a recipe for a DIY Covid-19 vaccine – one that only the group’s 20-odd members had previously tested.’ 

Read here (The Guardian, August 30, 2020)

Hysteria is the most dangerous coronavirus symptom

 ‘Steve Reicher, a professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews who advises the Government as part of its Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours, tells the Telegraph: “When you look at the literature on fear and risk, it’s not pointing out there is a danger which causes people to be terrorised by fear. If you tell people what the risks are and give them a clear understanding of what the mitigation is, you don’t get dread and anxiety as people know what to do.” He wants ministers to show clarity about their strategy, warning: “In a vacuum, when people are already concerned, they’ll imagine the worst circumstances.”... ‘For example, the average Briton was found last month to estimate that the disease had wiped out as much as 7 per cent of the United Kingdom, which would equate to around 4.6 million people, rather than the actual rate in the tens of thousands.

‘Although Covid-19 sparked a more draconian response from the British Government, its effectiveness will remain open to question given the UK’s better death rate and economic performance can still be compared unfavourably with Sweden, which eschewed any lockdown whatsoever... When the winter draws near, speculation about whether strict measures like local lockdowns may be necessary to clamp down on Covid will no doubt run rife. In response, many Britons will undoubtedly be tempted to focus on keeping calm and follow what the Prime Minister hails as “good British common sense” - with a bit of Swedish sangfroid.’

[This story is behind a paywall]

Read here (The Telegraph, August 22, 2020)

Meet the philosopher who is trying to explain the pandemic: Giorgio Agamben criticises the “techno-medical despotism” of quarantines and closing

‘In a society that respects science, expertise confers power. That has good results, but it brings a terrible problem: Illegitimate political power can be disguised as expertise. This was an idea of the French philosopher Michel Foucault, who used it to explain how experts had expanded definitions of criminality and sexual deviancy. One of Italy’s most celebrated thinkers, Giorgio Agamben, has recently applied similar insights to the coronavirus, at the risk of turning himself into a national pariah...

‘Mr. Agamben’s name may ring a bell for some Americans. He was the professor who in 2004, at the height of the “war on terror,” was so alarmed by the new U.S. fingerprinting requirements for foreign visitors that he gave up a post at New York University rather than submit to them. He warned that such data collection was only passing itself off as an emergency measure; it would inevitably become a normal part of peacetime life.

‘His argument about the coronavirus runs along similar lines: The emergency declared by public-health experts replaces the discredited narrative of “national security experts” as a pretext for withdrawing rights and privacy from citizens. “Biosecurity” now serves as a reason for governments to rule in terms of “worst-case scenarios.” This means there is no level of cases or deaths below which locking down an entire nation of 60 million becomes unreasonable. Many European governments, including Italy’s, have developed national contact tracing apps that allow them to track their citizens using cellphones.’

Read here (New York Times, August 21, 2020)

One-two punch of protests, coronavirus playing havoc with mental health in Hong Kong, study finds

‘Some three-quarters of Hongkongers are harbouring negative thoughts in the aftermath of last year’s social unrest and amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, with young people suffering significantly more from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive symptoms, a new study has found.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 6, 2020)

Nine important things we’ve learned about the coronavirus pandemic so far

Here are nine of the most important things we’ve learned about SARS-CoV-2 in the past seven months and why we didn’t fully understand or appreciate them at first.

1. Outbreaks of COVID-19 can happen anywhere
2. COVID-19 can sicken and kill anyone
3. Contaminated surfaces are not the main danger
4. It is in the air
5. Many people are infectious without being sick
6. Warm summer weather will not stop the virus
7. Masks work
8. Racism, not race, is a risk factor
9. Misinformation kills

Read here (Scientific American, August 4, 2020) 

How the pandemic defeated America

‘It is hard to stare directly at the biggest problems of our age. Pandemics, climate change, the sixth extinction of wildlife, food and water shortages—their scope is planetary, and their stakes are overwhelming. We have no choice, though, but to grapple with them. It is now abundantly clear what happens when global disasters collide with historical negligence.

‘COVID‑19 is an assault on America’s body, and a referendum on the ideas that animate its culture. Recovery is possible, but it demands radical introspection. America would be wise to help reverse the ruination of the natural world, a process that continues to shunt animal diseases into human bodies. It should strive to prevent sickness instead of profiting from it. It should build a health-care system that prizes resilience over brittle efficiency, and an information system that favors light over heat. It should rebuild its international alliances, its social safety net, and its trust in empiricism. It should address the health inequities that flow from its history. Not least, it should elect leaders with sound judgment, high character, and respect for science, logic, and reason.

‘The pandemic has been both tragedy and teacher. Its very etymology offers a clue about what is at stake in the greatest challenges of the future, and what is needed to address them. Pandemic. Pan and demos. All people.’

Read here (The Atlantic, August 4, 2020)

WHO warns of long road ahead, may never be a ‘silver bullet’

‘The World Health Organisation warned on Monday that there might never be a “silver bullet” for Covid-19 in the form of a perfect vaccine, and that the road to normality will be long, with some countries requiring a reset of strategy. WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and WHO emergencies head Mike Ryan exhorted nations to rigorously enforce health measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, handwashing, contact tracing and testing. “For now, stopping outbreaks comes down to the basics of public health and disease control. The message to people and governments is clear: ‘Do it all’,” Tedros told a virtual news briefing from the UN body’s headquarters in Geneva.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 3, 2020)

This is not a normal mental-health disaster

‘The full extent of the fallout will not come into focus for some time. Psychological disorders can be slow to develop, and as a result, the Textbook of Disaster Psychiatry, which Morganstein helped write, warns that demand for mental-health care may spike even as a pandemic subsides. “If history is any indicator,” Morganstein says of COVID-19, “we should expect a significant tail of mental-health effects, and those could be extraordinary.” Taylor worries that the virus will cause significant upticks in obsessive-compulsive disorder, agoraphobia, and germaphobia, not to mention possible neuropsychiatric effects, such as chronic fatigue syndrome...

‘In 2013, reflecting on the tenth anniversary of the SARS pandemic, newspapers in Hong Kong described a city scarred by plague. When COVID-19 arrived there seven years later, they did so again. SARS had traumatized that city, but it had also prepared it. Face masks had become commonplace. People used tissues to press elevator buttons. Public spaces were sanitized and resanitized. In New York City, COVID-19 has killed more than 22,600 people; in Hong Kong, a metropolis of nearly the same size, it has killed seven. The city has learned from its scars.’

[Joshua Morganstein is the chair of the American Psychiatric Association’s Committee on the Psychiatric Dimensions of Disaster; Steven Taylor is a psychiatrist at the University of British Columbia and the author of The Psychology of Pandemics]

Read here (The Atlantic, July 7, 2020)

I'm an ICU doctor treating coronavirus patients. But somehow I'm not angry

‘Sometimes I wonder if my lack of anger means I don’t care enough; if I’ve been worn down by ventilators being turned off, patients dying, families asking for a final call. Perhaps emotions overwhelm and suffocate each other in such a situation, leaving no air for something as indulgent as anger. Perhaps my anger couldn’t compete with the humility of knowing that until early March, I and every doctor I knew had predicted that this virus posed little threat beyond a bad seasonal flu. Like my better judgment, perhaps my anger had lost.’

Read here (The Guardian, June 11, 2020)

A third of Americans now show signs of clinical anxiety or depression, Census Bureau finds amid coronavirus pandemic

‘When asked questions normally used to screen patients for mental health problems, 24 percent showed clinically significant symptoms of major depressive disorder and 30 percent showed symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder. The findings suggest a huge jump from before the pandemic. For example, on one question about depressed mood, the percentage reporting such symptoms was double that found in a 2014 national survey.’

Read here (Washington Post, May 26, 2020)

Is everyone depressed?

‘For people whose response to the pandemic turns from acute anxiety into general malaise, Jarvis recommends facing the numbness head-on. It’s treatable, and not necessarily with medication. First, she says, create regimens of simple tasks that give structure to the day. The approach is working for Falcone, the acupuncturist. He starts every day with 30 minutes of stretching, no matter what. Then he walks his dog, makes coffee, and sits down to teach massage via Zoom. Deb Hawkins, the tech analyst, sent me a list of things she’s doing to help others and stay busy: She donated money to a couple of worthy causes, and made an appointment to give blood. She has created a small social bubble and signed up for an online ballet class. She says her sense of self is returning.’

Read here (The Atlantic, May 22, 2020)

Why you might be missing your commute

“You can’t disentangle home and work anymore, and that’s not always easy,” says Jon Jachimowicz, an assistant professor in the Organizational Behavior Unit at Harvard Business School. A new study, co-authored by Jachimowicz, examines the function of the commute as a psychological threshold between home and work.

According to the study, the daily commute offers an opportunity for people to engage in “role-clarifying prospection”, meaning it gives them time and space to think about the upcoming work role. “Through role-clarifying prospection, employees mentally shift their attention from what they are experiencing in the present - thoughts pertaining to their commute, or thoughts unrelated to their past or future role - to what they will be experiencing when they arrive at work, namely, thoughts pertaining to their workday,” the authors write.

Read here (BBC, May 21, 2020)