When will the Covid-19 pandemic end?

Normalcy by spring, and herd immunity by fall? This McKinsey & Co article assesses the prospects for an end to the pandemic in 2021.

‘More than eight months and 900,000 deaths into the COVID-19 pandemic,1 people around the world are longing for an end. In our view, there are two important definitions of “end,” each with a separate timeline:

• An epidemiological end point when herd immunity is achieved.
• A transition to a form of normalcy. 

‘Both the epidemiological and normalcy ends to the COVID-19 pandemic are important. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. In the United States, while the transition to normal might be accomplished sooner, the epidemiological end point looks most likely to be reached in the second half of 2021. Other advanced economies are probably on similar timetables.’

Read here (McKinsey & Co, Sept 21, 2020)

‘The whole world is coming together’: How the race for a COVID vaccine is revolutionizing Big Pharma

‘There are few people on earth who better understand the power of vaccines—or who know more about the challenge of developing, vetting, and distributing them around the world—than [Seth] Berkley. The physician and epidemiologist presides over GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, which over the past 20 years has immunized nearly 800 million children against a host of deadly pathogens, saving millions of lives. 

‘Before becoming GAVI’s CEO in 2011, Berkley founded and led the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative—which itself was a long lesson in both perseverance and keeping one’s expectations in check. There is, after all, no vaccine yet for HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, despite nearly four decades of global endeavor. Nor is there one for SARS or MERS, those two other deadly coronaviruses that have emerged in recent years—nor for Lyme disease, West Nile virus, Zika, or the common cold.

‘Yet in one striking way, the swarm of initiatives to develop vaccines against COVID is unique, says Berkley. That is in the readiness of pharmaceutical companies to stand together in one very important common cause: ensuring that when vaccines are ready, they are available to the whole world at the same time.’

Read here (Fortune, Sept 21, 2020)

As more local lockdowns begin, the hard truth is there’s no return to ‘normal’ [comment on Britain]

‘As well as the risk Covid poses to individuals, our actions affect others including vulnerable and elderly people. Think of it as a chain of infections – if you are a part of this and it gets passed on, others may become ill and die because of your role in that chain. A wedding in Maine resulted in more than 170 people contracting the virus, and seven people dying. None of those who died attended the wedding...

‘Nine months after South Korea and Senegal started building diagnostic capacity, it is comically depressing that the UK government, one of the richest in the world, does not have a functional testing system that returns results within 24 hours. In addition, given that we know the virus spreads easily through households, those who test positive should have the offer to isolate in external facilities (such as hotels). The “14-day isolation” measures for people entering the UK are also a box-ticking exercise where given the lack of screening or monitoring, a constant stream of infections keep coming into the country. It’s like trying to empty a bucket under a tap.’

Read here (The Guardian, Sept 21, 2020) 

Covid-19: UK could face 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

‘The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further action, the government's chief scientific adviser has warned. Sir Patrick Vallance said that "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that. It comes as the PM prepares to chair a Cobra emergency committee meeting on Tuesday morning, then make a statement in the House of Commons.’

Read here (BBC, Sept 21, 2020)

Ministry: Malaysia will join Covax initiative to ensure Covid -19 vaccine acquired quickly at affordable price

‘The Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) today clarified that Malaysia will be signing up for the global Covid-19 vaccine development platform Covax. The ministry in a statement today said that the government is currently discussing the terms of joining the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunisation (Gavi), which is managing the Covax initiative.

‘Yesterday, the Malaysian Medical Association (MMA) today urged the government to explain why Malaysia has yet to join the Covax Vaccination Plan co-led by the World Health Organisation (WHO). MMA president Dr N. Ganabaskaran said the association believes even if Malaysia has its own bilateral negotiations for a vaccine, signing up for the Covax Vaccine Plan can be an added option that will guarantee access to vaccines for Covid-19.’

Read here (Malay Mail, Sept 19, 2020)

How people coped in lockdown: Jules Evans

‘What conclusions can we draw from this? Here are some personal suggestions and reflections:

1. Difficult times bring out the best (and sometimes the worst) in people. As Stoic philosopher Epictetus said: ‘Difficulties reveal people’s characters’. Most of us are finding the pandemic incredibly hard, we’re tired, anxious and sometimes feel defeated. But there’s cause for hope too — the emergency is bringing out the best in people, and helping us rediscover what really matters.
2. Doctors and health authorities should be careful not to pathologize the normal and appropriate suffering people feel in hard times, or to immediately prescribe pills for emotional suffering. Anti-depressants can be helpful in the short-term, but they also have side effects and can lead to long-term dependency. Declaring a mental health ‘epidemic’ and saying mental health services are the only solution can create bottlenecks for services that either don’t exist or have long waiting lists.
3. Instead, as well as supporting mental health services, we should also emphasize people’s strengths, assets and natural coping skills, including community approaches like getting to know your neighbours or joining local mutual aid groups. This empowers people rather than making them feel weaker and more dependent on medical experts.
4. For two decades, as part of the ‘politics of well-being’, policy makers have tried to improve people’s happiness in schools, companies and society. There is some evidence this is counter-productive, especially in difficult times. It can make people ashamed of feeling anxiety, anger or grief, even if these emotions are appropriate. Instead of focusing narrowly on happiness, we can help people develop psychological flexibility, and discover what gives them a sense of meaning and purpose, especially in adversity. This could make people more resilient and less prone to ‘the happiness trap’ (ie avoiding activities that make them feel anxious in the short-term).
5. Mental health and flourishing involve all aspects of society, from the economy to the arts to travel and green spaces. Building a flourishing organisation or society means taking a joined-up approach. That joined-up approach needs to come from the top — from the head of state, or the CEO of an organisation, or the head of a school or university.
6. An example of that joined-up approach to flourishing is social prescribing — perhaps 25% of people who go to see their GP (local doctor) don’t have anything physically wrong with them. Instead, they’re mainly suffering from loneliness and disconnection. Under a new NHS programme, the GP can refer them to a ‘link worker’, who then connects them to local community groups (sports, arts, faith and philosophy, and so on). Rather than asking ‘what’s wrong with you’ they can ask ‘what matters to you? What do you value?’
7. The challenge is that we are discovering the importance of these community approaches to flourishing just as the pandemic destroys community infrastructure — shutting down theatres, churches, youth groups, sports facilities and pubs. Yes, online courses have boomed, but we can’t go entirely digital, nor should governments only support big national arts projects. We all need to support local organisations that foster well-being, especially local companies.
8. In an age of emergency, you are only as strong as your community. The fantasy of the invulnerable Stoic individual is just that - a fantasy. We need each other, now more than ever, so the best thing you can do to support your long-term mental health is to invest in your community and in community relationships.

Read here (Jules Evans, Philosophy for Life, Sept 18, 2020)

Coronavirus: Constantly surprising virus found to be heat tolerant, self-healing and very resilient in lab tests

‘Hungarian team finds virus particle withstands being probed by a nano needle 100 times, possibly making it the most physically elastic virus known. French scientists find it can replicate in animal cells after being exposed to temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius for an hour.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 18, 2020)

Covid-19 vaccine leaders make trial plans public in transparency push

‘Makers of the leading coronavirus vaccine candidates disclosed detailed information about their pivotal late-stage clinical trials and how they plan to gauge their shots' safety and effectiveness. The moves by first Moderna Inc, and then later from Pfizer Inc and its partner BioNTech SE, follow increasing worry that the effort to develop a Covid-19 vaccine is becoming politicised, and that an inoculation could be rushed to market before it is proven safe and effective. AstraZeneca said in an e-mail it would share its plans as well, though it hadn't as of Thursday (Sept 17) evening in the US.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 18, 2020)

How people coped in lockdown

‘The first wave of COVID caused huge suffering, and has led to warnings of an ‘epidemic’ or ‘tsunami’ of mental health problems. But there is another, more hopeful story to tell, about how people coped and even thrived during the adversity of 2020. It’s important to remember this as we head into the winter and a likely second wave.

‘The Collective Psychology Project has been researching how people coped, for a report for the Wellcome Trust called Collective Resilience. We were interested in how people discovered the ‘active ingredients’ of mental health, not just through therapy and pills, but also through self-care and mutual aid activities — from poetry to philosophy, from baking to cycling, from online learning to joining a neighbourhood support group.

‘What we discovered tallied with a lot of evidence, such as from the What Works Centre for Well-Being, about how people cope and flourish through non-medical activities like exercise, gardening, the arts, faith, philosophy & spirituality.’

Read here (Medium, Sept 18, 2020) 

Fighting the Covid infodemic

‘Countering the COVID-19 infodemic requires not only facts, but also the coordinated and strategic advocacy for which those fighting HIV are renowned. In the face of misinformation, silence kills. All segments of society must act now to dispel myths and amplify the voice of science. Our lives, and especially those of the poorest and most marginalized, depend on it.’

One of the co-authors is Adeeba Kamarulzaman, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine and Professor of Medicine and Infectious Diseases at the University of Malaya. She is also President of the International AIDS Society.

Read here (Project Syndicate, Sept 18, 2020) 

Covid-19 and health equity — Time to think big

To achieve health equity, we need to reach beyond the health care system — and think big. New social policies on a few key fronts could advance both health equity and the Covid-19 response.

• First, we propose establishing a universal food income.
• Second, we recommend reforming unemployment insurance.
• Finally, we need policies supporting investment in community development.

Read here (New England Journal of Medicine,  Sept 17, 2020)

Rich nations have cornered half of future COVID-19 vaccine supply: Oxfam

‘A group of wealthy nations representing 13 per cent of the global population have already bought up more than half of the promised doses of future COVID-19 vaccines, according to a report by Oxfam on Wednesday (Sep 16).

‘The non-governmental organisation analysed deals struck by pharmaceuticals and vaccine producers for the five leading vaccine candidates currently in late-stage trials, based on data collected by the analytics company Airfinity.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Sept 17, 2020)

For Covid-19, as with everything else, Americans on the right and left live in different universes when it comes to trusting the media

‘More in Common — a group that tries to “counter polarization” and “build bridges across dividing lines” — has a new report out this morning called “The New Normal,” which looks at “the impacts of COVID-19 on trust, social cohesion, democracy and expectations for an uncertain future.” It looks at seven countries (U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands) and is based on surveys of about 14,000 people.’

This story focuses on ‘how people in [the] seven countries view the motives of the news media in covering the pandemic. Only in the United States is that a profoundly partisan question.’

Read here (Nieman Lab, Sept 17, 2020)

Is herd immunity an option for India as it becomes second country after US to cross 5 million Covid-19 cases?

‘As coronavirus cases continue to spiral in India, only the second country after the US to cross the 5 million milestone, questions have been raised over whether herd immunity is an option for India now. Some epidemiologists believe it is already taking place in small areas where high infection levels have been followed by a weakening of the Covid-19 virus. Others believe that it is too soon to predict or holds little promise.

‘Dr Rajni Kant from the Indian Council of Medical Research: "Herd immunity right now is not a (government) strategy for coronavirus control. The current strategy is wearing a mask, following social distancing and good hygiene with regular washing of hands." Still, there are silver linings in India's Covid-19 fight. The country's mortality rate at 1.64 per cent is the lowest in the world and recovery is among the highest with a recovery rate of 78-79 per cent.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 17, 2020)

With effective prevention of outbreaks, nations do not need to choose between public health and economy: WHO chief

‘The head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has debunked arguments that countries have to choose between public health and the economy when they look at whether to ease restrictions following a lockdown. "That is a false choice," said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Instead, the WHO urges countries to focus on four essential priorities:

• Prevent Covid-19 amplifying events. All around the world, explosive outbreaks have been linked to gatherings, in places like stadiums, nightclubs and places of worship.
• Protect the vulnerable to save lives and reduce the burden on the health systems in terms of severely and critically ill patients.
• Educate and empower communities to protect themselves and others. Physical distancing, hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and masks can help to curb transmission and save lives, not when done in isolation, but by practising all the measures together.
• Persist with the public health basics. Find, isolate, test and care for people who have been infected, and trace and quarantine their contacts.

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 17, 2020)

CDC Director: Masks are ‘the most important, powerful public health tool we have’

‘The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention again urged Americans during a Wednesday Senate hearing to wear face masks, in contrast to President Donald Trump’s lax attitude. “These face masks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have. ... If we did it for six, eight, 10, 12 weeks, we would bring this pandemic under control,” Robert Redfield said. “We have clear scientific evidence they work.” 

‘He added that it was unlikely that a vaccine would be available to the general public until mid-late 2021. This comes as the federal government rolls out a COVID-19 vaccine plan, aiming to make the vaccine free to all Americans. Trump publicly slapped down Redfield later, saying he was wrong about a vaccine timeline and the effectiveness of masks.’

Read here (Huffington Post, Sept 16, 2020)

Who gets a Covid vaccine first? Access plans are taking shape

‘The WHO’s guidance at this point lists only which groups of people should have priority access to vaccines. The NASEM (US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine) guidance goes a step further by ranking priority groups in order of who should get a vaccine first (see ‘A tiered approach’).

‘After health-care workers, medically vulnerable groups should be among the first to receive a vaccine, according to the NASEM draft plan. These include older people living in crowded settings, and individuals with multiple existing conditions, such as serious heart disease or diabetes, that put them at risk for more-serious COVID-19 infection.

‘The plan prioritizes workers in essential industries, such as public transit, because their jobs place them in contact with many people. Similarly, people who live in certain crowded settings — homeless shelters and prisons, for example — are called out as deserving early access.’

Read here (Nature, Sept 16, 2020)

Fast coronavirus tests: What they can and can't do

‘Rapid antigen tests are designed to tell in a few minutes whether someone is infectious. Will they be game changers? At present, antigen tests are administered by trained professionals, but some companies are developing versions that are simple enough to be used at home — similar to pregnancy tests.

“Making the tests faster, cheaper, easier is definitely the goal — and I think the antigen test is the way to get there,” says Martin Burke, a chemist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, who is co-developing rapid tests, including antigen-based assays. “This is by no means the perfect solution, it’s just the fastest thing we could get going now,” he says.

Read here (Nature, Sept 16, 2020) 

Vitamin D may help in Covid-19 fight, studies show

‘Multiple studies suggest that having adequate amounts of vitamin D may play a role in helping people stave off or combat the coronavirus, although the jury is still out on whether the results are conclusive or why this is so.

‘At least one overseas study has associated vitamin D deficiency with a higher risk of Covid-19. Published in medical journal JAMA Network Open on Sept 3, the study observed 489 patients from the University of Chicago Medicine health system, about a third of whom had vitamin D deficiency. Patients with vitamin D deficiency and who were not given treatment for it were 1.77 times more likely to test positive for Covid-19 than those who were not. The study also noted that other research had found that Covid-19 was less prevalent in groups that had lower rates of vitamin D deficiency.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 16, 2020)

Impact of Covid-19 on women and children

‘The impacts of crises are never gender-neutral and COVID-19 is no exception. The pandemic has resulted in increased rates of violence against women and has exacerbated challenges in accessing justice. Women are losing their livelihoods faster than men.

‘Millions of women are assuming disproportionate responsibility for caregiving. Many women have found themselves unable to access contraception and other sexual and reproductive health services. UN experts predict that as many as 13 million more child marriages could take place over the next 10 years because of COVID-19 shutdowns of schools and family planning services combined with increasing economic challenges.’

Read here (IPS News, Sept 16, 2020)

The Covid silver linings playbook

• The first is that we are living through one of the most exciting and promising periods of medical invention and innovation in history. 
• Second, deeper cross-border private-sector collaboration, often outside the purview of governments, is fueling this process of scientific leapfrogging.
• Third, the economic disruptions resulting from the pandemic have fueled multiple private-sector efforts to collect and analyze a broader range of high-frequency data in domains extending far beyond medicine. 
• Fourth, the COVID-19 shock has raised our collective awareness and sensitivity to low-probability, high-impact “tail risks.”
• Fifth silver lining... The pandemic has led country after country to run a series of “natural experiments,” which have shed light on a host of issues that go well beyond health and economics.
• Finally, the crisis has required many companies to hold candid conversations about work-life balance, and to devise innovative solutions to accommodate employees’ needs.

Read here (Project Syndicate, Sept 15, 2020) 

Only 15 per cent in 13 advanced economies in Europe, North America and Asia approve of US handling of the coronavirus: Pew Research Centre survey

‘The median percentage of people polled in 13 countries who said the US has done a good job dealing with the coronavirus was only 15 per cent, the study says... China received a median approval rating of 37 per cent, while nearly two out of three people believed the WHO, from which the US withdrew this year over allegations of a bias toward China, had done a good job. The study “clearly indicates that around the globe no one is buying the Trump administration’s ardent efforts to pin blame on the pandemic upon China and the WHO,” said Allen Carlson, an associate professor in Cornell University’s government department.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 15, 2020)

How coronavirus pandemic has fuelled the rise of QAnon conspiracy theories in Europe

‘QAnon, the US-based conspiracy about a Satan-worshipping, paedophile cabal secretly running the world, is taking root in Europe feeding on fears stirred up by the coronavirus outbreak, analysts say. Anti-vaxxers, white supremacists and government sceptics in Europe are starting to buy into the ill-defined but pro-Donald Trump conspiracy that emerged across the Atlantic in 2017.

‘Dozens of European QAnon offshoots have sprung up online, while protesters have brandished Q-themed messages at demonstrations in Berlin, London and Paris denouncing face masks and other measures to curb the pandemic. “While the conspiracy’s growth in the US has been an outward and visible process, what has gone less noticed is QAnon’s extensive root growth and spread in Europe,” fake news monitor NewsGuard warned in a report in July. It identified the Covid-19 crisis as a “catalyst”.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 15, 2020) 

NIH ‘very concerned’ about serious side effect in coronavirus vaccine trial​

‘A great deal of uncertainty remains about what happened to the unnamed patient, to the frustration of those avidly following the progress of vaccine testing. AstraZeneca, which is running the global trial of the vaccine it produced with Oxford University, said the trial volunteer recovered from a severe inflammation of the spinal cord and is no longer hospitalized.

‘AstraZeneca has not confirmed that the patient was afflicted with transverse myelitis, but Nath and another neurologist said they understood this to be the case. Transverse myelitis produces a set of symptoms involving inflammation along the spinal cord that can cause pain, muscle weakness and paralysis. Britain’s regulatory body, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, reviewed the case and has allowed the trial to resume in the United Kingdom.’

Read here (Scientific American, Sept 15, 2020)

Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly

Executive summary: ‘The Lancet COVID-19 Commission was launched on July 9, 2020, to assist governments, civil society, and UN institutions in responding effectively to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Commission aims to offer practical solutions to the four main global challenges posed by the pandemic: suppressing the pandemic by means of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions; overcoming humanitarian emergencies, including poverty, hunger, and mental distress, caused by the pandemic; restructuring public and private finances in the wake of the pandemic; and rebuilding the world economy in an inclusive, resilient, and sustainable way that is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Many creative solutions are already being implemented, and a key aim of the Commission is to accelerate their adoption worldwide.’

Download full statement here (Sept 14, 2020)

India considers emergency authorisation of vaccine as COVID-19 cases surge

‘India said on Sunday (Sep 13) it was considering granting an emergency authorisation for a COVID-19 vaccine, particularly for the elderly and people in high-risk workplaces, as the country's number of reported infections passed 4.75 million. India, which has consistently reported over 1,000 COVID-19 deaths daily this month, has now recorded 78,586 fatalities from the disease. It lags only the United States globally in overall number of infections, but it has been adding more daily cases than the United States since mid-August. "India is considering emergency authorisation of a COVID-19 vaccination," said Health Minister Harsh Vardhan. "If there is a consensus we may go ahead with it, especially in the case of senior citizens and people working in high-risk settings."

Read here (Channel News Asia, Sept 14, 2020)

To beat the coronavirus, build a better fence: Tomas Pueyo

‘No country has been able to control the virus without a fence. Fences are not enough to stop the virus on their own, but they’re a necessary part of the solution. European countries and U.S. states had hoped otherwise. They were deluded. They opened their arms to their neighbours too soon and got infected in the hug.

‘They need to realise that not every country or state is effectively fighting the virus. Why should their citizens sacrifice so much for so long, with lockdowns and business closures, only to waste their efforts when their neighbours visit?

‘And as long as states fail to control their borders, the coronavirus will come back.’

Read here (New York Times, Sept 14, 2020) 

A world in disorder

On September 14th 2020, the GPMB released its second report titled, A World in Disorder. In this report, the GPMB provides a harsh assessment of the global COVID-19 response, warning that the world cannot afford to be unprepared again when the next pandemic hits. The Board called for five urgent actions to be taken to bring order out of the catastrophe and chaos currently facing the world: responsible leadership; engaged citizenship; strong and agile systems for health security; sustained investment; and robust global governance of preparedness.

The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) is an independent monitoring and accountability body to ensure preparedness for global health crises. Comprised of political leaders, agency principals and world-class experts, the Board provides an independent and comprehensive appraisal for policy makers and the world about progress towards increased preparedness and response capacity for disease outbreaks and other emergencies with health consequences. In short, the work of the GPMB will be to chart a roadmap for a safer world.

Download here (Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, Sept 14, 2020)

The cyber side of vaccine nationalism

‘In the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine nationalism has become an important and controversial phenomenon. Rather than cooperate through global mechanisms to develop, manufacture, and distribute a vaccine against the coronavirus, countries with the means to do so have prioritized national access to a vaccine. Despite warnings about its adverse consequences for global health and international cooperation, vaccine nationalism is not abating. The political momentum of vaccine nationalism can be found in not only the pharmaceutical realm but also cyberspace.

‘A New York Times story from September 5 detailed how the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine has produced a proliferation of cyber espionage targeting vaccine research and development. According to the article, the pandemic triggered a shift “for the world’s intelligence agencies, pitting them against each other in a new grand game of spy versus spy” such that “every major spy service around the globe is trying to find out what everyone else is up to.”

Read here (Council on Foreign Relations, Sept 14, 2020)

How the ageing immune system makes older people vulnerable to Covid-19

‘Covid-19 patients who are 80 or older are hundreds of times more likely to die than those under 40. That’s partly because they are more likely to have underlying conditions — like diabetes and lung disease — that seem to make the body more vulnerable to Covid-19.

‘But some scientists suggest another likely, if underappreciated, driver of this increased risk: the ageing immune system. The changes that ripple through our network of immune cells as the decades pass are complex, resulting in an overreaction here, a delayed response there and, overall, a strangely altered landscape of immunity.’

Read here (Today Online, Sept 13, 2020) 

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest

‘Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus, academics have suggested in one of the most respected medical journals in the world.  The commentary, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, advances the unproven but promising theory that universal face mask wearing might be helping to reduce the severity of the virus and ensuring that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic. 

‘If this hypothesis is borne out, the academics argue, then universal mask-wearing could become a form of variolation (inoculation) that would generate immunity and “thereby slow the spread of the virus in the United States and elsewhere” as the world awaits a vaccine. It comes as increasing evidence suggests that the amount of virus someone is exposed to at the start of infection - the “infectious dose” - may determine the severity of their illness. Indeed, a large study published in the Lancet last month found that “viral load at diagnosis” was an “independent predictor of mortality” in hospital patients.’

Read here (The Telegraph, Sept 12, 2020) 

Battered travel industry will take years to recover even after coronavirus vaccines are rolled out, says Booking.com

“We believe that a vaccine and/or proven treatment is critical for people to feel safe to travel again, and even then, it will be years – not quarters – before travel returns to 2019 pre-pandemic levels,” said Angel Llull Mancas, vice president and managing director, Asia-Pacific, at the online travel service provider. If and when a successful vaccine programme is rolled out globally, the travel industry’s recovery will also be dependent on the world economy and consumers’ willingness to spend money on leisure amid a downturn that has decimated corporate revenues and triggered salary cuts and even redundancies for many workers.

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 11, 2020)

Covid-19 symptoms usually last months, large-scale Dutch survey suggests

‘A survey in the Netherlands has suggested that most people who showed signs of having Covid-19 still had multiple symptoms nearly three months later. Only 0.7 per cent of respondents said they were completely symptom-free 79 days after first showing signs of infection, according to research published on Thursday in the European Respiratory Society’s Open Research journal. The survey is the first to show only a partial recovery among a large sample of people, according to the researchers. It involved more than 2,100 mostly non-hospitalised people confirmed or suspected to have had Covid-19 in the Netherlands and Flanders, the northern Dutch-speaking part of Belgium.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 11, 2020)

With RMCO extended to Dec 31, here’s a (gentle) reminder of what you can and cannot do

‘Bearing in mind the strict standard operating procedures (SOP) enforced by the National Security Council (NSC), here are some of the things we can and cannot do until New Year’s Eve, or when the government announces otherwise.’ 

Read here (Malay Mail, Sept 11, 2020) 

Facts v feelings: How to stop our emotions misleading us -- Tim Harford

‘The pandemic has shown how a lack of solid statistics can be dangerous. But even with the firmest of evidence, we often end up ignoring the facts we don’t like...’ This is also shown in evidence from two other areas: (1) Coffee and breast cysts and (2) Climate change. They should inform our reaction to Covid-19 and other matters...

‘When it comes to interpreting the world around us, we need to realise that our feelings can trump our expertise. This explains why we buy things we don’t need, fall for the wrong kind of romantic partner, or vote for politicians who betray our trust. In particular, it explains why we so often buy into statistical claims that even a moment’s thought would tell us cannot be true. Sometimes, we want to be fooled. Psychologist Ziva Kunda found this effect in the lab, when she showed experimental subjects an article laying out the evidence that coffee or other sources of caffeine could increase the risk to women of developing breast cysts. Most people found the article pretty convincing. Women who drank a lot of coffee did not...

‘Scientific evidence is scientific evidence. Our beliefs around climate change shouldn’t skew left and right. But they do. This gap became wider the more education people had. Among those with no college education, 45% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans worried “a great deal” about climate change. Yet among those with a college education, the figures were 50% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans. A similar pattern holds if you measure scientific literacy: more scientifically literate Republicans and Democrats are further apart than those who know very little about science.’

Read here (The Guardian, Sept 10, 2020)

Singapore researchers develop ‘smart mask’ that can monitor signs associated with Covid-19

‘Local scientists have developed an integrated monitoring system that can be easily attached to any face mask in order to monitor the wearer for health indicators associated with Covid-19. Sensors pick up skin temperature, blood oxygen saturation, blood pressure and heart rate - all of which are parameters associated with coronaviruses. Professor Loh Xian Jun, who is one of the scientists behind the invention, told The Straits Times on Thursday (Sept 10) that the inspiration for the system came around the circuit breaker period.’

Read here (Straits Times, Sept 10, 2020)

America is trapped in a pandemic spiral

‘The country is now trapped in an intuition nightmare: Like the spiraling ants [army ants that sometimes walked in circles until they died of hunger and dehydration because they followed pheromone trails of others], Americans are walled in by their own unhelpful instincts, which lead them round and round in self-destructive circles. “The grand challenge now is, how can we adjust our thinking to match the problem before us?” says Lori Peek, a sociologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder who studies disasters. Here, then, are nine errors of intuition that still hamstring the U.S. pandemic response, and a glimpse at the future if they continue unchecked. The time to break free is now. Our pandemic summer is nearly over. Now come fall, the season of preparation, and winter, the season of survival.’

The nine errors:

1. A serial monogamy of solutions
2. False dichotomies
3. The comfort of theatricality
4. Personal blame over systemic fixes
5. The normality trap
6. Magical thinking
7. The complacency of inexperience
8. A reactive rut
9. The habituation of horror

On point 9: ‘The US might stop treating the pandemic as the emergency that it is. Daily tragedy might become ambient noise. The desire for normality might render the unthinkable normal. Like poverty and racism, school shootings and police brutality, mass incarceration and sexual harassment, widespread extinctions and changing climate, COVID-19 might become yet another unacceptable thing that America comes to accept.’

Read here (The Atlantic, Sept 9, 2020)

Covid-19 vaccine makers issue rare safety pledge as fears of political pressures swirl

‘A coalition of nine pharmaceutical chief executives issued a joint pledge Tuesday that they will not rush the development of a COVID-19 vaccination for political purposes and will not seek approvals until the vaccines have gone through Phase 3 clinical trials.

‘The unusual joint move from nine industry leaders comes after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified states to be ready to distribute a vaccine to certain groups just two days before the presidential election, stoking concerns that the Trump administration may be putting political pressure on companies and health officials to fast-track vaccine approvals ahead of the November vote.’

Read here (ABC News, Sept 8, 2020) 

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the UK

‘A large, Phase 3 study testing a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford at dozens of sites across the U.S. has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom. A spokesperson for AstraZeneca, a frontrunner in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, said in a statement that the company’s “standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data.” 

Read here (STAT News, Sept 8, 2020)

Hundreds of thousands have been given Covid-19 vaccines without a single infection, Chinese drug firm says

‘Hundreds of thousands of Chinese have been given two experimental Covid-19 vaccines under an emergency scheme without a single case of infection, a top official with a state-owned vaccine developer has said. Zhou Song, secretary for the commission for discipline inspection with China National Biotec Group, also said the company’s two candidate vaccines were likely to protect people for up to three years. Zhou told China National Radio on Monday that the firm’s vaccines were the most widely used in the emergency scheme, adding: “Hundreds of thousands have taken the shot and no one has shown any obvious adverse effects or got infected.”

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 8, 2020)

Skills lost due to COVID-19 school closures will hit output for generations: OECD

‘Disruption to schooling stemming from the COVID-19 epidemic will cause a skill loss that could result in a 1.5 per cent drop in global economic output for the rest of this century, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated.

‘For the United States, that will represent an economic loss of US$15.3 trillion, the OECD said in a report published on Tuesday (Sep 8), with the bill rising higher still if disruption to education extends into the next academic year.’ 

Read here (Channel News Asia, Sept 8, 2020)

The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter?

‘Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven’t yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future...

‘It’s even possible that the D614G change could make the virus an easier target for vaccines, Montefiori’s team found in a study posted to bioRxiv in July 13. Mice, monkeys and humans that received one of a number of experimental RNA vaccines, including one being developed by drug maker Pfizer in New York City, produced antibodies that proved more potent at blocking G viruses than D viruses.

‘With G viruses now ubiquitous, the finding is “good news”, says Montefiori. But as a scientist who has watched HIV mutate to elude many vaccines developed against it, he remains wary of the potential of SARS-CoV-2 to evade humanity’s responses. Luban agrees: “We need to keep our eyes open for additional changes.”

Read here (Nature, Sept 8, 2020)

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of Covid-19 and other epidemics

‘With a hypothetical 1 million COVID-19 deaths [in the US], it is possible to portray the epidemic as unimaginably large—the biggest killer in American history—or small, reducing our remaining life [expectancy] by less than 1 part in 1,000. However, when the loss of life is put into comparative perspective, we see that the scale of an epidemic with 1 million deaths would be as large as that of the recent opioid and HIV crises but much smaller than that of the Spanish flu. The 1918 epidemic killed more people relative to population size, and it also caused a much greater loss of remaining life expectancy because those who died were so young.

‘As a society, we are and we should be making major and costly efforts to reduce mortality. The anticipated economic costs appear appropriate, or perhaps low, when compared to the statistical value of lives that may be saved.

‘The death toll of COVID-19 is a terrible thing, both for those who lose their lives and for their family, friends, colleagues, and all whom their lives touched. Those are real individuals, not the abstract statistics presented here. But the population perspective helps us to place this tragedy in a broader context. As we put our efforts into reducing the impact of the epidemic, it is important to know that we as a society have been through such mortality crises before.’

Read here (PNAS, Sept 8, 2020)

World’s struggle with coronavirus will affect growth and employment for a long time

‘The next few months will tell us a lot about the shape of the coming global recovery. Despite ebullient stock markets, uncertainty about COVID-19 remains pervasive. Regardless of the pandemic’s course, therefore, the world’s struggle with the virus so far is likely to affect growth, employment, and politics for a very long time.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, Sept 7, 2020)

CRISPR, the gene-editing technology, carries much promise – and peril – amid pandemic

‘As the battle against Covid-19 intensifies, one scientist calls CRISPR ‘our power pellet to help us fight this horrible virus’. The genome-editing tool could indeed bring an end to disease and drastically improve our lives, but with it comes the spectre of bioengineered abomination...

‘It might turn out that CRISPR and its spin-off techno­logies arrive too late to have any effective and lasting impact on the current pandemic. There could be a backlash against CRISPR’s darker potential that undermines the hope for the life-changing good it undoubtedly holds. Fear and scepticism could outmuscle reason and diligent inquiry as the CRISPR saga plays out against a backdrop of polar­isation and bias.

“In the old days, people came to herbs to find new medicine,” says Qi. “In the past century, people turned to chemistry. While human lifespans become longer, the quality of human life still needs to be improved. There are many age-related diseases which simply cannot be addressed using herbs or chemical drugs. The solution is likely in molecules – and CRISPR is probably one of them. One ultimate hope is that CRISPR can help to address ageing, and help people with age-related diseases.”

Read here (South China Morning Post, Sept 5, 2020)  

Coronavirus crisis shatters India's big dreams

‘Not so long ago, India’s future looked entirely different. It boasted a sizzling economy that was lifting millions out of poverty, building modern megacities and amassing serious geopolitical firepower. It aimed to give its people a middle-class lifestyle, update its woefully vintage military and become a regional political and economic superpower that could someday rival China, Asia’s biggest success story. But the economic devastation in Surat and across the country is imperiling many of India’s aspirations. The Indian economy has shrunk faster than any other major nation’s. As many as 200 million people could slip back into poverty, according to some estimates. Many of its normally vibrant streets are empty, with people too frightened of the outbreak to venture far.

‘Much of this damage was caused by the coronavirus lockdown imposed by India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, which experts now say was at turns both too tight and too porous, both hurting the economy and spreading the virus. India now has the fastest growing coronavirus crisis, with more than 80,000 new infections reported each day.’

Read here (New York Times, Sept 5, 2020)

Everything you need to know about the coronavirus: A very informative summary as at September 2020

‘As we head into fall, questions loom large about everything from reopening schools to the start of flu season. We’ve put together a guide to everything you need to know about this pandemic—be it how to keep your children entertained or how this outbreak is affecting the economy. We’ll be updating it regularly to help you keep track of all aspects of this rapidly evolving situation.’

Read here (Wired, Sept 4, 2020)

Iceland has very good news about coronavirus immunity

‘A study on the pandemic in Iceland published in the New England Journal of Medicine offers some evidence to dispel such fears. The researchers have looked at serum samples from 30,576 individuals, using six different types of antibody testing (since different techniques often produce conflicting results).

‘The paper’s central findings are that, out of 1,797 tested people who’d recovered from Covid, 91.1% produced detectable levels of antibodies. Moreover, these levels hadn’t declined four months after the diagnosis. The immune response was higher among older individuals — who are at greater risk of developing a more dangerous form of the coronavirus — and among those who presented the worst symptoms.’

Read here (Bloomberg, Sept 3, 2020)

WHO suffers setback on its plan for global vaccine access facility

‘The World Health Organization appears to have suffered a setback in its major global initiative for a Covid-19 vaccine procurement facility, as the United States and other major industrialized nations remain reluctant to sign up to the scheme in combating the worsening pandemic which has so far claimed more than 842,000 lives.

‘Despite repeated warnings in August by the WHO director-general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, that “no one is safe until everyone is safe; no one country has access to research and development, manufacturing and all the supply chain for essential medicines and materials,” the major pharmaceutical producing countries are increasingly pursuing “nationalist” initiatives instead of multilateral schemes, according to media reports.’

Read here (Third World Network, Sept 3, 2020)

How to decide who should get a Covid-19 vaccine first

‘If and when a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine is available, what is the fairest way to distribute it? In a policy report published on Thursday in Science, 19 public health experts laid out an ethical framework called the Fair Priority Model. It is geared toward three principles: benefiting people and limiting harm, prioritizing countries already disadvantaged by poverty or low life expectancy, and avoiding discrimination.

‘The report is critical of previously suggested vaccine allocation plans, including two proposed by the World Health Organization: one of them would distribute vaccines to each country according to its population size, and the other would prioritize health care workers and adults who are above age 65 or have underlying health conditions.’

Read here (Scientific American, Sept 3, 2020)

Steroids can be lifesaving for Covid-19 patients, scientists report: New data in hand, the WHO recommended that doctors give the drugs to critically ill patients worldwide

‘International clinical trials published on Wednesday confirm the hope that cheap, widely available steroid drugs can help seriously ill patients survive Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Based on the new evidence, the World Health Organization issued new treatment guidance, strongly recommending steroids to treat severely and critically ill patients, but not to those with mild disease...

‘JAMA published that paper and three related studies, along with an editorial describing the research as an “important step forward in the treatment of patients with Covid-19.” Corticosteroids should now be the first-line treatment for critically ill patients, the authors said. The only other drug shown to be effective in seriously ill patients, and only modestly at that, is remdesivir. Steroids like dexamethasone, hydrocortisone and methylprednisolone are often used by doctors to tamp down the body’s immune system, alleviating inflammation, swelling and pain. Many Covid-19 patients die not of the virus, but of the body’s overreaction to the infection.’

Read here (New York Times, Sept 2, 2020)

WHO ‘living guidance' on corticosteroids for Covid-19:

Download here (WHO)

CDC tells states how to prepare for Covid-19 vaccine by early November

‘The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has notified public health officials in all 50 states and five large cities to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high-risk groups as soon as late October or early November.

‘The new C.D.C. guidance is the latest sign of an accelerating race for a vaccine to ease a pandemic that has killed more than 184,000 Americans. The documents were sent out on the same day that President Trump told the nation in his speech to the Republican National Convention that a vaccine might arrive before the end of the year.’

Read here (New York Times, Sept 2, 2020)

In Latin America, religious misinformation on Covid-19 spreads with the help of the Christian press

‘Latin American Christian communities aren’t the only religious groups to fall victim to misleading claims or outright misinformation about the pandemic. In June, Spanish cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera declared attempts to find a vaccine the “work of the devil” that would involve “aborted fetuses” in a filmed Mass shared around the world. Church leaders in Australia raised similar concerns recently, apparently unaware that the practice of using cell lines grown from a fetus in 1972 has been commonplace in vaccine development for decades.

‘In India, Hindu religious and political leaders have promoted cow urine as a cure for Covid-19, inspired by the sacred status of cows in Hinduism, and declared the coronavirus would leave India once a controversial temple was completed. Claims that a polio vaccine contained pork products or toxic ingredients, often circulated by Muslim clerics, have damaged the fight against the disease in Muslim-majority Pakistan.’

Read here (Nieman Lab, Sept 2, 2020) 

A supercomputer analysed Covid-19 — and an interesting new theory has emerged: A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis

‘Earlier this summer, the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee set about crunching data on more than 40,000 genes from 17,000 genetic samples in an effort to better understand Covid-19. Summit is the second-fastest computer in the world, but the process — which involved analyzing 2.5 billion genetic combinations — still took more than a week.

‘When Summit was done, researchers analyzed the results. It was, in the words of Dr. Daniel Jacobson, lead researcher and chief scientist for computational systems biology at Oak Ridge, a “eureka moment.” The computer had revealed a new theory about how Covid-19 impacts the body: the bradykinin hypothesis. The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms. It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved. Jacobson’s group published their results in a paper in the journal eLife in early July...

‘Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. Once inside, though, they don’t just take your stuff — they also throw open all your doors and windows so their accomplices can rush in and help pillage more efficiently...’

Read here (Elemental Medium, September 1, 2020)

How many people has the coronavirus killed?

‘In times of upheaval — wars, natural disasters, outbreaks of disease — researchers need to tally deaths rapidly, and usually turn to a blunt but reliable metric: excess mortality. It’s a comparison of expected deaths with ones that actually happened, and, to many scientists, it’s the most robust way to gauge the impact of the pandemic. It can help epidemiologists to draw comparisons between countries, and, because it can be calculated quickly, it can identify COVID-19 hotspots that would otherwise have gone undetected. 

‘According to data from more than 30 countries for which estimates of excess deaths are available (see ‘Terrible toll’), there were nearly 600,000 more deaths than would normally be predicted in these nations for the period between the onset of the pandemic and the end of July (413,041 of those were officially attributed to COVID-19).’

Read here (Nature, Sept 1, 2020)

What happens if China gets the Covid-19 vaccine first?

‘Fidler [David Fidler, an expert on global health and national security who has consulted for the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] thinks it’s too much to hope that geopolitics can stop interfering with public health. The current clash between the U.S. and China means the era of U.S.-led altruistic health initiatives done without the motivation of power over a rival, like President George W. Bush’s PEPFAR program to fight infectious diseases in Africa, is over. Today, great powers will try to press their advantage in whatever ways they can.

‘But China and the U.S. can try to keep the competition from spiraling out of control and destroying public health in its wake. In past eras of multipolar rivalry, antagonists have been able to set limits to that competition, singling out certain areas in which they can turn down the heat and cooperate a bit more. The U.S. and China could do that today, Fidler suggests, perhaps by agreeing to take their hands off the WHO.

‘That needs to happen soon. Because right now, nothing is off-limits—which means neither is the destruction of decades worth of public health norms. “If we don’t have some sort of global health détente between Beijing and Washington,” warns Fidler, “we’re in real trouble.”

Read here (Politico, August 31, 2020) 

The most American Covid-19 failure yet: Contact tracing works almost everywhere else. Why not here?

‘Contact tracers are not to blame. Tracers tend to be relatively low-paid, civic-minded workers who make calls relentlessly in an attempt to rescue the nation from a ruthless pandemic. But they’re struggling for three main reasons. (1) There are too many cases to track (2) Testing takes too long (3) Many Americans fear and distrust government.’

Read here (The Atlantic, August 31, 2020)

Winners and losers of the pandemic economy

‘One could draw a few conclusions from these economic realities. For starters, the pandemic economy has accelerated the pre-pandemic trend favoring intangible-asset value creation through firms with relatively fewer employees. We can expect this trend to continue, albeit not at the heightened pandemic-induced pace. Traditional businesses will recover, but the disconnect between value creation across firms depending on intangibles per employee will persist and remain a major economic and social challenge...

‘Finally, given the outsize contribution of digital intangible assets to value creation, it is hard to see a way to reverse the trend of rising wealth inequality. Because the balance sheets of those lower down the income and wealth ladder are largely devoid of assets with high intangible and digital content, the rewards of current economic and technological dynamics will pass them by.’

Read here (Project Syndicate, August 31, 2020)

The post-capitalist hit of the summer

‘The pandemic has reinforced that which has been undermining the foundation of capitalism since 2008: the link between profit and capital accumulation. The current crisis has revealed a post-capitalist economy in which the markets for real goods and services no longer coordinate economic decision-making, the current Technostructure (comprising Big Tech and Wall Street) manipulates behavior at an industrial scale, and the demos is ostracized from our democracies.’

Read here (Project Syndicate, August 31, 2020)

How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty

‘Political pressure has been mounting for scientists to deliver an economy-saving result, and reports of corner-cutting emerge daily... Nor is it just politicians who are in a hurry. On 2 August, Steven Salzberg, a computational biologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, suggested in Forbes magazine that a promising vaccine be rolled out to a wider pool of volunteers before clinical trials had been completed, triggering an outcry (and some sympathy) that prompted him to recant the next day. Meanwhile, a research group with links to Harvard University continues to defend its publication in July of a recipe for a DIY Covid-19 vaccine – one that only the group’s 20-odd members had previously tested.’ 

Read here (The Guardian, August 30, 2020)

There is no ‘new normal’: We were not normal to begin with

‘We would like to say that there is no ‘new normal’ because we were not normal to begin with. We have been abnormal as a society for a very long time. The coronavirus has helped to unmask our sick society and systems that we have developed and evolved over many decades. Greed, corruption, power hunger, control, oppression, lies and self-interest have become the hallmarks of our present society, and in most nations. While there are altruistic individuals and some who are trying to improve the situation, many are caught in the chase for wealth and power. Most have become cynical, hope-less and weary.’

Read here (The Malay Mail, August 30, 2020)

The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks

‘For every 1,000 people infected with the coronavirus who are under the age of 50, almost none will die. For people in their fifties and early sixties, about five will die — more men than women. The risk then climbs steeply as the years accrue. For every 1,000 people in their mid-seventies or older who are infected, around 116 will die. These are the stark statistics obtained by some of the first detailed studies into the mortality risk for COVID-19.’

Read here (Nature, August 28, 2020)

Could bartering become the new buying in a changed world?

‘The increase in bartering is nowhere better exemplified than in Fiji, which inspired Dunne’s London group. The country has a long tradition of barter, known as ‘veisa’. It’s only grown amid Covid-19, and Fijians have harnessed modern technology to connect even more people...

‘Along with goods, some people have been trading another precious commodity that they may have had more of recently – time. ‘Time banking’, which started in Japan in the 1970s, and in the US in 1992, is seeing a jump in popularity. Members of a time bank spend one hour helping another member, and can receive one hour of help in return. People offer and receive things such as piano lessons, painting services or language teaching.’

Read here (BBC, August 27, 2020) 

What the 'emergency' blood plasma debacle reveals: If the FDA’s emergency authorisations aren’t used responsibly, they could lose their power

‘The FDA previously came under fire for issuing an EUA for after Trump became fixated on the drug, which the agency later rescinded when the drug proved to be ineffective. With plasma, the agency has again issued an EUA following a loud and public campaign by the president based on little scientific evidence. The Trump administration is reportedly considering using the EUA process to fast-track a COVID-19 vaccine before the November election. “It just seems to be a pattern now,” says Jesse Goodman, a former chief scientist at the FDA now at Georgetown. “I’m very worried that this might happen with vaccines.” A controversial EUA for a vaccine could inflame fears that a vaccine is being rushed out.’

Read here (The Atlantic, August 27, 2020)

Bali's move to shut out foreign tourists during coronavirus pandemic sparks 'cultural shift'

"Tourism is the backbone of Bali and the economy has fallen because we rely too much on it," said Gede Robi Supriyanto, a musician and environmental activist in Bali. He said the problem had sparked a "cultural shift", with people who had lost their jobs in tourism moving back to their home villages. "We see an increase of employment in the agricultural sector, more people doing farm work."

Read here (ABC News, August 27, 2020)

US health agency says testing not needed for some exposed to Covid-19, sparking outcry

‘The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said this week that people who were exposed to COVID-19 but are not symptomatic may not need to be tested, sparking outcry among officials and experts who fear the changed guidance was politically motivated. The advice marks a reversal of the agency's previous position recommending testing for all close contacts of people diagnosed with COVID-19, narrowing the scope of instances where the CDC recommends testing. CNN and The New York Times reported on Wednesday that US public health officials were ordered by high-level members of the Trump administration to push forward with the changes.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, August 27, 2020)

Why the United States is having a coronavirus data crisis

 ‘Political meddling, disorganization and years of neglect of public-health data management mean the country is flying blind...

‘Almost every day for the past seven months, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated its website with near-real-time information on local outbreaks. The site also reports several COVID-19 statistics for every region of the country. Data dashboards in Singapore and New Zealand offer similar windows into how the coronavirus is spreading within their borders. This helps policymakers and citizens determine how to go about daily life, while reducing risks—and provides researchers with a wealth of data. 

‘By contrast, the United States offers vanishingly few details on how the disease is spreading, even as people increasingly socialize and travel, and authorities reopen schools and businesses. This state of affairs is frustrating data researchers, who want to help authorities make decisions that can save lives...

‘Although information isn’t the only tool that can be used against a pandemic, South Korea’s attention to data correlates with its overall success at controlling the outbreak: the country has had about 3.5 cases per 10,000 people overall, and there have been around 2 COVID-19 deaths per week over the past month. By contrast, the United States has had 175 cases per 10,000 people overall, and about 7,000 people have died of the disease every week for the past month.’

Read here (Scientific American, August 26, 2020)

Malaysia likely to remain closed to tourists into 2021: Minister

‘Wary of recurring coronavirus waves, Malaysia may keep its borders closed to international tourists until the second quarter of next year, the minister responsible for the travel sector said in a recent interview. Nancy Shukri, the minister of tourism, arts and culture, said the government is now re-drafting a "green" list of countries deemed safe from the virus, as a first step. "We initially had a list of countries to be allowed in, but then we saw the second and third waves of coronavirus in some of these countries," she told the Nikkei Asian Review. "So we have to restrategize our plan."

Read here (Nikkei, August 26, 2020)

Sex differences in COVID-19 immune responses affect patient outcomes

‘Yale researchers have identified significant differences in how the immune systems of women and men respond to the virus that causes COVID-19. In a study launched by Women’s Health Research at Yale and published Aug. 28 in Nature, the authors revealed possible biological explanations for why men are more likely than women to suffer severe cases of COVID-19 and die of the disease.

“We now have clear data suggesting that the immune landscape in COVID-19 patients is considerably different between the sexes and that these differences may underlie heightened disease susceptibility in men,” said senior author Akiko Iwasaki, the Waldemar Von Zedtwitz Professor of Immunobiology and Molecular, Cellar and Development Biology, and an investigator of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. “Collectively, these data suggest we need different strategies to ensure that treatments and vaccines are equally effective for both women and men.”

Read here (Yale News, August 26, 2020)

Why do some people weather coronavirus infection unscathed?

‘Asymptomatic cases are not unique to Covid-19. They occur with the regular flu, and probably also featured in the 1918 pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London. But scientists aren’t sure why certain people weather Covid-19 unscathed. “That is a tremendous mystery at this point,” says Donald Thea, an infectious disease expert at Boston University’s School of Public Health...

‘Disease tolerance is the ability of an individual, due to a genetic predisposition or some aspect of behavior or lifestyle, to thrive despite being infected with an amount of pathogen that sickens others... At least 90 percent of those infected with the tuberculosis bacterium don’t get sick. The same is true for many of the 1.5 billion of people globally who live with parasitic worms called helminths in their intestines...

‘...there are countless disease tolerance pathways. “Every time we figure one out, we find we have 10 more things we don’t understand,” King says. Things will differ with each disease, he adds, “so that becomes a bit overwhelming.”

‘Nevertheless, a growing number of experts agree that disease tolerance research could have profound implications for treating infectious disease in the future. Microbiology and infectious disease research has “all been focused on the pathogen as an invader that has to be eliminated some way,” says virologist Jeremy Luban of the University of Massachusetts Medical School. And as Ayres makes clear, he says, “what we really should be thinking about is how do we keep the person from getting sick.”

Read here (Scientific American, August 25, 2020) 

Starbucks Cafe’s Covid outbreak spared employees who wore masks

‘After a woman with the coronavirus visited a Starbucks cafe north of Seoul this month, more than two dozen patrons tested positive days later. But the four face mask-wearing employees escaped infection.

‘The Aug. 8 outbreak in the South Korean city of Paju is another example of how rapidly the SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread in confined, indoor spaces -- as well as ways to minimize transmission. With health authorities around the world still debating the evidence around face masks, the 27-person cluster linked to the air-conditioned coffee outlet adds more support for their mandatory use to help limit the spread of the Covid-19-causing virus.’

Read here (Bloomberg, August 25, 2020) 

Covid-19 is transmitted through aerosols. We have enough evidence, now it is time to act

‘We should continue doing what has already been recommended: wash hands, keep six feet apart, and so on. But that is not enough. A new, consistent and logical set of recommendations must emerge to reduce aerosol transmission. I propose the following: Avoid Crowding, Indoors, low Ventilation, Close proximity, long Duration, Unmasked, Talking/singing/Yelling (“A CIViC DUTY”). These are the important factors in mathematical models of aerosol transmission, and can also be simply understood as factors that impact how much “smoke” we would inhale.’

Read here (Time Magazine, August 25, 2020)

In the shadow of biological warfare: Conspiracy theories on the origins of Covid-19 and enhancing global governance of biosafety as a matter of urgency

‘Two theories on the origins of COVID-19 have been widely circulating in China and the West respectively, one blaming the United States and the other a highest-level biocontainment laboratory in Wuhan, the initial epicentre of the pandemic. Both theories make claims of biological warfare attempts. According to the available scientific evidence, these claims are groundless. However, like the episodes of biological warfare during the mid-twentieth century, the spread of these present-day conspiracy theories reflects a series of longstanding and damaging trends in the international scene which include deep mistrust, animosities, the power of ideologies such as nationalism, and the sacrifice of truth in propaganda campaigns. Also, the threats associated with biological warfare, bioterrorism, and the accidental leakage of deadly viruses from labs are real and growing. Thus, developing a better global governance of biosafety and biosecurity than exists at present is an urgent imperative for the international community in the broader context of a looming Cold War II. For such a governance, an ethical framework is proposed based upon the triple ethical values of transparency, trust, and the common good of humanity.’

Read here (NCBI, Aug 25, 2020) 

Approval of a coronavirus vaccine would be just the beginning – Huge production challenges could cause long delays

‘There are four main challenges that must be addressed as soon as possible if a vaccine is to be produced quickly and at a large scale. (1) Existing manufacturing capacity is limited (2) The type of vaccine is still unknown (3) The size of the problem is unprecedented (4) “Economic poker game” of seeking to minimize costs and maximize revenue.’

Read here (IPS News, August 25, 2020)

America’s coming double dip

‘Soaring financial markets are blithely indifferent to lingering vulnerabilities in the US economy. But the impact of consumers' fear of COVID-19 on pandemic-sensitive services are unlikely to subside, undermining the case for the uninterrupted recovery that investors seem to expect.’

Read here (Project Syndicate, August 25, 2020) 

The unequal scramble for coronavirus vaccines — by the numbers

‘Wealthy countries have struck deals to buy more than two billion doses of coronavirus vaccine in a scramble that could leave limited supplies in the coming year. Meanwhile, an international effort to acquire vaccines for low- and middle-income countries is struggling to gain traction.’

Read here (Nature, August 24, 2020)

Families on the edge [Malaysia]: Issue 1 -- The immediate impact of the Movement Control Order period

‘In May 2020 UNICEF and UNFPA jointly commissioned the Families on the Edge study to explore the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on women and children in low income urban families in Malaysia. This report is the first in a series of reports under the Families on the Edge project and describes the immediate socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on a group of 500 families with children in Kuala Lumpur’s low-cost flats, as well as preliminary insights on the relevance, adequacy and accessibility of key COVID-19 mitigation policies and other critical social services for this particularly vulnerable group. Future reports are expected to monitor the extent to which these families recover and offer critical insights for the general public and policymakers as Malaysia aims to ‘build-back-better’

Read here (Unicef Malaysia, August 2020)

Download the 36-page report here (Unicef Malaysia, August 2020)

Evidence for convalescent plasma coronavirus treatment lags behind excitement

‘But so far, there’s little evidence that plasma actually helps patients, and the decision could confound efforts to study its effects, says former FDA commissioner Robert Califf, who now heads clinical policy and strategy at Verily and Google Health in South San Francisco, California... Convalescent plasma has been tested only in small trials without the statistical power to provide firm conclusions... “It’s a potential therapy that could work, and I don’t think it’s out of bounds to make it available” with an authorization, says Califf. “But we ought to be really emphasizing in public-service announcements that participation in randomized trials is a first priority.” 

[This story was written before the US Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency-use authorisation on August 23 to treat COVID-19 with convalescent plasma.]

Read here (Scientific American, August 24, 2020)

WHO cautious on Covid-19 plasma as US issues emergency authorisation

‘The World Health Organisation on Monday (Aug 24) was cautious about endorsing the use of recovered Covid-19 patients' plasma to treat those who are ill, saying that evidence that it works remains "low quality" even as the United States issued emergency authorisation for such therapies. So-called convalescent plasma, which has long been used to treat diseases, has emerged as the latest political flashpoint in the race to find therapies for Covid-19. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Sunday authorised its use after President Donald Trump blamed the agency for impeding the rollout of vaccines and therapeutics for political reasons.’

Read here (Reuters, August 24, 2020)

First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say

‘Researchers in Hong Kong on Monday reported what appears to be the first confirmed case of Covid-19 reinfection, a 33-year-old man who was first infected by SARS-CoV-2 in late March and then, four and a half months later, seemingly contracted the virus again while traveling in Europe.

‘The case raises questions about the durability of immune protection from the coronavirus. But it was also met with caution by other scientists, who questioned the extent to which the case pointed to broader concerns about reinfection...

‘During his second infection, the man did not have any symptoms. Some patients go through their course of Covid-19 without showing symptoms, but researchers have also hypothesized that secondary cases of the coronavirus will generally be milder than the first.’

Read here (STAT News, August 24, 2020)

The Chinese scientist who sequenced the first Covid-19 genome speaks out about the controversies surrounding his work

‘Over the past few years, Professor Zhang Yongzhen has made it his business to sequence thousands of previously unknown viruses. But he knew straight away that this one was particularly nasty. It was about 1:30 p.m. on Jan. 3 that a metal box arrived at the drab, beige buildings that house the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center. Inside was a test tube packed in dry ice that contained swabs from a patient suffering from a peculiar pneumonia sweeping China’s central city of Wuhan. But little did Zhang know that that box would also unleash a vicious squall of blame and geopolitical acrimony worthy of Pandora herself. Now, he is seeking to set the record straight.’

Read here (Time Magazine, August 24, 2020) 

Why do Covid fatalities remain low when infection numbers are rising?

‘Most statistics indicate that although cases of Covid-19 are rising in many parts of Europe and the United States, the number of deaths and cases of severe complications remain relatively low. For example, patients on ventilators have dropped from 3,000 at the epidemic’s peak in Britain to 70. At the same time, the number of cases in the UK have begun to rise in many areas.’

Questions: (1) What lies behind this trend? (2) Does that indicate that the worst may be over? (3) Is the Covid-19 virus becoming less deadly?

Read here (The Guardian, August 23, 2020)

The Covid-19 pandemic is fueling the opioid crisis

 This fact sheet provided by the US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences:

• Identifies the link between the COVID-19 pandemic and an increased risk of opioid misuse.
• Provides tips to manage stressors caused by the pandemic.

Read here (NIH, undated circa 2020)

Being a coronavirus tester has been a life-changing experience

‘Back in the first week, the manual sample handling process allowed us to process several hundred samples. With more volunteers coming in, this increased to several thousand, and when we roped in robots to help, it quickly reached tens of thousands of processed tests per day. Just like the spread of the virus we were competing against, our capacity was growing exponentially. What would normally have taken months or years to establish, now took days or weeks.’

Read here (Channel News Asia, August 22, 2020)

WHO chief hopes coronavirus pandemic will last less than two years

‘The World Health Organization hopes the coronavirus pandemic will be shorter than the 1918 Spanish flu and last less than two years, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday, if the world unites and succeeds in finding a vaccine... Tedros said the 1918 Spanish flu “took two years to stop”... ...we have a disadvantage of globalisation, closeness, connectedness but an advantage of better technology.‘

Read here (Reuters, August 22, 2020)

China giving experimental coronavirus vaccines to high-risk groups since July, says official

‘China has been giving experimental coronavirus vaccines to groups facing high infection risks since July, a health official told state media. No vaccine has yet passed final, large-scale trials to prove it is safe and effective enough to protect people from contracting the virus that has led to almost 800,000 deaths worldwide.

‘The aim is to boost the immunity of specific groups of people, including medical workers and those who work at food markets and in the transportation and service sectors, Zheng Zhongwei, a National Health Commission official, told state TV in an interview aired late on Saturday.’

Read here (Reuters, August 22, 2020) 

Hysteria is the most dangerous coronavirus symptom

 ‘Steve Reicher, a professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews who advises the Government as part of its Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours, tells the Telegraph: “When you look at the literature on fear and risk, it’s not pointing out there is a danger which causes people to be terrorised by fear. If you tell people what the risks are and give them a clear understanding of what the mitigation is, you don’t get dread and anxiety as people know what to do.” He wants ministers to show clarity about their strategy, warning: “In a vacuum, when people are already concerned, they’ll imagine the worst circumstances.”... ‘For example, the average Briton was found last month to estimate that the disease had wiped out as much as 7 per cent of the United Kingdom, which would equate to around 4.6 million people, rather than the actual rate in the tens of thousands.

‘Although Covid-19 sparked a more draconian response from the British Government, its effectiveness will remain open to question given the UK’s better death rate and economic performance can still be compared unfavourably with Sweden, which eschewed any lockdown whatsoever... When the winter draws near, speculation about whether strict measures like local lockdowns may be necessary to clamp down on Covid will no doubt run rife. In response, many Britons will undoubtedly be tempted to focus on keeping calm and follow what the Prime Minister hails as “good British common sense” - with a bit of Swedish sangfroid.’

[This story is behind a paywall]

Read here (The Telegraph, August 22, 2020)

How viruses shape the world

‘Viruses are unimaginably varied and ubiquitous. And it is becoming clear just how much they have shaped the evolution of all organisms since the very beginnings of life. In this, they demonstrate the blind, pitiless power of natural selection at its most dramatic. And—for one group of brainy bipedal mammals that viruses helped create—they also present a heady mix of threat and opportunity.’

Read here (The Economist, August 22, 2020)

Meet the philosopher who is trying to explain the pandemic: Giorgio Agamben criticises the “techno-medical despotism” of quarantines and closing

‘In a society that respects science, expertise confers power. That has good results, but it brings a terrible problem: Illegitimate political power can be disguised as expertise. This was an idea of the French philosopher Michel Foucault, who used it to explain how experts had expanded definitions of criminality and sexual deviancy. One of Italy’s most celebrated thinkers, Giorgio Agamben, has recently applied similar insights to the coronavirus, at the risk of turning himself into a national pariah...

‘Mr. Agamben’s name may ring a bell for some Americans. He was the professor who in 2004, at the height of the “war on terror,” was so alarmed by the new U.S. fingerprinting requirements for foreign visitors that he gave up a post at New York University rather than submit to them. He warned that such data collection was only passing itself off as an emergency measure; it would inevitably become a normal part of peacetime life.

‘His argument about the coronavirus runs along similar lines: The emergency declared by public-health experts replaces the discredited narrative of “national security experts” as a pretext for withdrawing rights and privacy from citizens. “Biosecurity” now serves as a reason for governments to rule in terms of “worst-case scenarios.” This means there is no level of cases or deaths below which locking down an entire nation of 60 million becomes unreasonable. Many European governments, including Italy’s, have developed national contact tracing apps that allow them to track their citizens using cellphones.’

Read here (New York Times, August 21, 2020)

India, Japan, Australia keen to boost supply chain security by reducing reliance on China

‘The Supply Chain Resilience Initiative will look to secure supply chains and reduce dependence on China in wake of the disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The supply chain initiative could also eventually be expanded to include the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).’

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 21, 2020)

When a substance abuse crisis and pandemic intersect

‘Even before coronavirus, U.S. drug overdose deaths reached a record high of 70,980 in 2019, an increase of 4.6% from 2018, according to Politico. Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids caused 36,500 of the overdose deaths. A more region-specific study underscores the depths of a national problem. Investigating 7 years of deaths in San Francisco, investigators found that more than 1 in 6 deaths attributed to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were actually due to overdose. The findings are significant in that San Francisco’s age-adjusted overdose mortality rate nearly mirrors the national rate.

‘White House and health officials said they expected the COVID-19 pandemic to result in the overdose death rate climbing higher this year.

‘Major news organizations have since linked the events of COVID-19 to increased illicit drug use and mortality. Politico reported on a White House drug policy office analysis showing that drug overdose deaths had risen 11.4% in the first four months of this year compared to the same period last year. According to Politico, Kentucky saw a 25% increase in overdose deaths between January and March, while emergency medical system calls and emergency department visits related to overdoses also rose between March and June. West Virginia reported a 50% increase in emergency calls in May. The Washington Post similarly reported that suspected overdoses have steadily increased, from an 18% jump in March 2020 compared to March 2019 to a 42% increase in May 2020 compared to last May.’

Read here (AACC, Aug 20, 2020)

Why is the ‘anti-vaxxer’ movement growing during a pandemic?

 The worldwide rush to rollout the Covid-19 vaccine has created a large group of “vaccine hesitant” people -- over and above the hardcore anti-vaxxers. “Anti-vaccination sentiment is going into the mainstream,” says Heidi Larson, director of the Vaccine Confidence Project at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “A lot of people you never would have imagined are now saying that maybe the anti-vaccination lobby has a point.”

‘Concerns about vaccinations vary from country to country, but they are often held by people not normally associated with fringe views or conspiracy theories. Many are highly educated, and they are just as likely to be liberal as conservative. “If you want to map where the anti-vaccination movement is strongest, just look for your nearest Whole Foods,” says Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard University, referring to the high-end supermarket chain.’

Read here (Financial Times, August 20, 2020)

Chinese vaccine giant quotes higher price for doses

‘Sinopharm chief says two-shot regimen will cost around US$145 and is expected to become available in December. Oxford University and AstraZeneca say their candidate will be about US$4 per dose when sold to the government.’

Read here (South China Morning Post, August 20, 2020)

Millions more in India may have caught coronavirus, antibody study suggests

‘More than a quarter of New Delhi's 20 million residents may have caught the novel coronavirus without showing symptoms, a study released on Thursday (Aug 20) indicated, raising fresh doubts about India's official case numbers. Extrapolated, the antibody study on 15,000 residents means 5.8 million people in the bustling capital could have caught the virus - more than 37 times the official tally of 156,139 infections.’

Read here (Straits Times, August 20, 2020) 

Evidence grows that children may play a larger role in transmission than previously believed

Are children the coronavirus’s secret weapon? Because they experience few symptoms of covid-19, children were largely ignored and untested during the early weeks of the pandemic. “But they may have been acting as silent spreaders all along,” our health desk wrote.

A study in the Journal of Pediatrics found high levels of the virus in children's airways, even when they had mild or no symptoms. Previous studies have reached similar conclusions, and researchers are trying to figure out how worried we should be about the children. "Some people thought that children might be protected,” one of the study's authors told The Washington Post. “This is incorrect. They may be as susceptible as adults — but just not visible.”

Read here (Washington Post, August 20, 2020)

What to know about Covid-19 tests, from PCR to antigen to antibody

‘People often talk about COVID-19 testing like it means only one thing. But in reality, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has so far granted emergency-use authorization to more than 200 different tests meant to detect a current or past infection from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Most recently, the agency made headlines for approving the first such test that uses saliva samples, the aptly named SalivaDirect test out of the Yale School of Public Health.

‘These COVID-19 tests fall into three main categories: PCR, antigen and antibody. Dr. Aneesh Mehta, chief of infectious diseases services at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, Ga., broke down the differences between them—and what to keep in mind if you decide to get tested.’

Read here (Time Magazine, August 20, 2020)

Covid 19 coronavirus: Kiwi doctor goes 'viral' on YouTube with covid fighting tips

‘Two months ago, Sandhya Ramanathan began posting videos on how to manage Covid-19 at home. They were made for her family overseas, in countries where managing the virus was difficult: the UK, US and India.

‘One went, pardon the pun, viral. She filmed the 18-minute video in one take, trying to get out the key messages before she got onto packing her son's bag for school camp. Her legs were asleep by the end of it. Today, that video has almost 360,000 views on YouTube and millions on WhatsApp, where it was shared first with Ramanathan's cousins and then with the rest of the world, desperate for a way to prepare for the pandemic.

‘She'd been looking into ways to treat Covid-19 at home because she knew this is where most people would be dealing with it. One way to save lives – both directly and by reducing the strain on hospitals – is to keep mild cases mild, instead of letting them get worse. "You have to actively treat it, you can't just lie down in bed," says Ramanathan.

‘When she made the video, she took care to outline methods of treatment that didn't involve trips to the doctor or expensive equipment. "I'm just thinking of the people in India, who have no access to a doctor," she says.’

Read here (NZ Herald, Aug 19, 2020)

Watch video here (Youtube, June 14, 2020)

Long-haulers are redefining Covid-19

‘The physical toll of long COVID almost always comes with an equally debilitating comorbidity of disbelief. Employers have told long-haulers that they couldn’t possibly be sick for that long. Friends and family members accused them of being lazy. Doctors refused to believe they had COVID-19. “Every specialist I saw—cardiologist, rheumatologist, dermatologist, neurologist—was wedded to this idea that ‘mild’ COVID-19 infections last two weeks,” says Angela Meriquez Vázquez, a children’s activist in Los Angeles. “In one of my first ER visits, I was referred for a psychiatric evaluation, even though my symptoms were of heart attack and stroke.”

Read here (The Atlantic, August 19, 2020)

WHO urges nations to join global shared vaccine bid

 ‘The WHO wrote to every country on Tuesday (Aug 18) urging them to quickly join its global shared vaccine programme - and spelled out who would get its eventual coronavirus jabs first. The World Health Organisation's director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that without vaccinating the planet's highest-risk populations simultaneously, it would be impossible to rebuild the global economy.

‘And he said the most exposed 20 per cent of each country's population - including front-line health workers, adults over 65 and those with pre-existing conditions - would be targeted in the first wave of vaccinations, once the WHO-led COVAX shared facility can roll out a proven safe and effective vaccine.’

Read here (Straits Times, August 18, 2020)

ISDS enables making more money from losses: Predatory law firms exploit emergency Covid-19 measures

‘With the Covid-19 contagion from late 2019 spreading internationally this year, governments have responded, often in desperation. Meanwhile, predatory international law firms are encouraging multimillion-dollar investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) lawsuits citing Covid-19 containment, relief and recovery measures... Transnational corporations (TNCs) can claim staggering sums in damages for alleged investment losses, for either alleged expropriation, or more typically, indirect ‘damage’ caused by regulatory changes, in this case, Covid-19 government response measures...

‘Foreign registered real estate or property companies can also sue governments that protect lessees or tenants who cannot make their lease or rent payments as contractually scheduled after their operations are shut down or disrupted by emergency regulations imposed. Pharmaceutical and medical supplies companies can also appeal to such arbitration tribunals to claim losses due to price controls and ‘violated’ intellectual property rights for Covid-19 tests, treatments, medical and protective equipment as well as vaccines.’

Read here (ksjomo.org, August 18, 2020)